March Madness is upon us. Round one of the NCAA Tournament tips off on Thursday, headlined in part by a battle in the South Region between the sixth-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels and the 11th-seeded VCU Rams.
Here are my VCU vs. North Carolina predictions.
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels odds
Money line: VCU +124 / North Carolina -148
Spread: VCU +2.5 (-110) / North Carolina -2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 151.5 (-115) / Under 151.5 (-105)
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels pick: VCU +2.5 (-110)
VCU is 16-1 in its last 17 games with its lone loss during this stretch coming to St. Louis, which earned a No. 9 seed in the Big Dance. The Rams rolled to victory in the Atlantic 10 Tournament title with defeats of Duquesne, Saint Joseph’s, and Dayton. VCU’s strength is definitely depth, as seven players are averaging at least 7.2 points per game. Sophomore guard Terrence Hill Jr. leads the way with 14.4 ppg and has scored at least 13 points in nine of his last 11 outings.
The obvious glaring issue for North Carolina is that star freshman Caleb Wilson (19.8 ppg) isn’t on the floor. Wilson sustained a left-hand fracture on February 10 and then — just when he was about to return — broke his right thumb, leaving him out for the year. As such, head coach Hubert Davis now has only two players scoring more than 9.8 ppg (Henri Veesaar at 16.7, Seth Trimble at 14.0).
VCU is 3-1 against the spread in its last four overall and 6-3 ATS in its last nine.
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels pick: Under 151.5 (-120)
Especially without Wilson, this is not the kind of high-flying UNC squad that we have seen so many times in the past. This version of the Tar Heels is more defensive-minded, surrendering a modest 71.3 points per game. VCU is right behind in that department (71.5 ppg allowed). Neither side plays especially fast. Carolina ranks 174th nationwide in pace of play at 70.8 possessions per game; VCU is 148th at 71.2 possessions.
The under is 7-3 in North Carolina’s last 10 overall. It is also 3-1 in the Rams’ last four games and 6-0 in their last six away from home.