Preseason Prep – March 20, 2026
Francisco Alvarez (C-NYM) had a tumultuous 2025 season as a fractured hamate bone suffered in March delayed his season debut before he was demoted to Triple-A and sustained a sprained UCL in his right thumb after his return to the majors. Nevertheless, Alvarez performed well while playing through that injury, compiling a .276 average, 8 HR, 21 RBI, and 22 R across 139 PA after rejoining the big club on July 21st. During that span, he walked at a 10% clip while fanning at an acceptable 25% rate. While his volume of contact wasn’t great (71% overall, 81.5% in zone), Alvarez blistered the baseball when he got the bat on it, logging a 58% hard-hit rate, 16% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 16% while his average launch angle of 9.5 generated enough flyballs (38.5%). At just 24, there is still potential here for Alvarez to establish himself as a top-8 fantasy backstop. For 2026, we have him projected to hit .248 with 23 HR in 2026. He’s enjoyed a quality spring training, hitting .381 with a homer and 4 RBI across 25 PA entering Thursday’s action.
Andrew Vaughn (1B-MIL) is again interesting for fantasy purposes as he’s slated to serve as the Brewers primary 1B this season. After his career with the White Sox fizzled and he was dealt to Milwaukee following a mid-season demotion, Vaughn hit .308 with 9 HR and 46 RBI across 254 PA from July 7 onward for the Brewers. During that span, he walked at a 9.5% clip while fanning just 14.5% of the time. Volume of contact (80.5% overall, 88.5% in zone) was there, as was quality of contact, as Vaughn registered a 47.5% hard-hit rate, 11% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 91.5 mph while his average launch angle of 11.8 produced 37.5% flyballs and 21.5% liners. The change of scenery may have turned his career around and we think that he will have a career year in 2026 with a .264 average and 25 HR. For what it’s worth, he’s been raking in spring training to the tune of a .389 average to go with 2 HR and 7 RBI over 42 PA.
Ceddanne Rafaela (2B/OF-BOS) has enjoyed a productive spring training as he’s hitting ./286 with 2 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R, and 4 SB over 25 PA entering Thursday’s action. He is coming off what was, on the surface, an underwhelming 2025 campaign in which he hit just .249 with 16 HR, 63 RBI, 84 R, and 20 SB across 587 PA in his second full MLB campaign. In his age-24 season, though, Rafaela showed some growth as he cut his strikeout rate from 26.5% in 2024 to a more palatable 20% while drawing a few more walks (up from a paltry 2.5% to an improved but still meh 6.5%). In the process, he raised his overall (up to 75.5% from 69.5%) and in-zone (up to 85% from 79.5%) contact rates while his quality of contact also improved across the board, with Statcast showing a 38.5% hard-hit rate (up from 37%), 9% barrel rate (up from 7.5%), and average exit velocity of 88.5 mph (up from 86.5). We are optimistic that he takes another step forward in 2026 as we have him projected for a .252 average, 22 HR, and 21 SB.
Travis Bazzana (2B-CLE) could make a fantasy impact as early as 2026 as the #1 overall pick in the 2024 amateur draft is poised to make his big-league debut sooner rather than later. In 2025, he ascended from High-A to Triple-A as he hit .245 with 9 HR, 39 RBI, 71 R, and 9 SB across 374 PA. He fanned a good bit along the way (23.5%) but he also drew a lot of walks (17.5%) while his volume of contact actually wasn’t bad, with an 8.4% swinging-strike rate, 77% overall contact rate, and 84.5% in-zone contact rate across 120 Triple-A PA. At that same level, Bazzana made a fair amount of loud contact, registering a 39.5% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 89.5 mph per Statcast. He’s held his own in spring training, hitting .294 with a HR, 6 RBI, a 10% walk rate, and 21% strikeout rate over his first 19 PA. We’re projecting that the 23 year-old will hit .223 with 11 HR and 9 SB in 435 PA at the MLB level this season, although more is certainly possible given his pedigree.
Colson Montgomery (SS-CHW) made a surprising impact upon his arrival in the majors last season as a 23 year-old rookie, hitting .239 with 21 HR, 55 RBI, and 43 R across just 284 PA. As was the case throughout most of his minor-league career, he fanned often (29%) while drawing some walks (9%), with volume of contact a bit of an issue as he registered a 69.5% overall contact rate and 82% in-zone contact rate. Fortunately for Montgomery, quality of contact was good as he logged a 44.5% hard-hit rate, 14.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 89.5 mph. So far in spring training, he’s batting just .214 through 44 PA, but he’s ripped 3 HR. In 2026, we are projecting a .234 average to go with 27 bombs.
Jordan Lawlar (3B-ARI) has seen a lot of reps in CF as he appears likely to open the season as Arizona’s starting CF. Overall, he has enjoyed a productive spring, hitting .293 with 4 HR, 5 RBI, 9 R, and a SB over his first 50 PA. It seems like Lawlar could finally stick in the majors in his age-23 campaign after he first reached the majors back in 2023 but has struggled with injuries and consistency since that time. He, after all, logged just 74 ineffective PA with the big club a year ago (.182 average, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 9 R, 2 SB, 35% strikeout rate), spending most of the campaign in Triple-A, where he was productive. Across 300 PA at that level, he compiled a .313 average, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 52 R, and 20 SB while showing solid command of the dish with a 12% walk rate against a 23% strikeout rate. There’s certainly 15/25 potential here, but the average is a question mark. For what it’s worth, at Fantistics we are projecting a .236 average, 13 HR, and 18 SB over 462 AB in 2026.
Jac Caglianone (OF-KC) has made waves during spring training with his loud contact, which has included a 67% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 99 mph. Statistically, he has compiled a .400 average, 1 HR, 4 RBI, and 6 R over 20 PA in spring training action while also performing well in the WBC. The #6 overall draft pick in the 2024 amateur draft out of the University of Florida, the 23 year-old could be primed for a breakout in the majors in 2026. He underwhelmed after reaching the majors last season, posting a .157 average with 7 HR, 18 RBI, and 19 R across 232 PA, but he raked in the minors before that, compiling a .337 average, 20 HR, 72 RBI, and 58 R over 304 PA split between Double-A and Triple-A. Encouragingly, he did not strike out a ton in his first taste of big-league action (22.5%) while his overall (75%) and in-zone (89.5%) contact rates were not bad at all. His quality of contact was good but not amazing, though, as Statcast shows a 42.5% hard-hit rate, 12% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 89.5 mph. We are projecting a .251 average and 25 big flies for Caglianone in 2026.
Brandon Nimmo (OF-TEX) joins the Rangers for his age-33 season, which will mark his first professional campaign with a team outside of the Mets organization. The Wyoming native is coming off one of his strongest big-league seasons as he registered a .262 average, career-high 25 HR, 92 RBI, 81 R, and 13 SB across 652 PA. After myriad injuries plagued him during his first few years in the majors, he’s logged at least 650 PA in each of the last 4 campaigns. In 2025, Nimmo fanned at a reasonable 21.5% clip as he posted 78% overall and 85.5% in-zone contact rates that roughly align with his career norms. Quality of contact was among the best of his career as Statcast shows a career-best 50% hard-hit rate, 9% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 92 mph while his average launch angle of 11.2 generated enough flyballs (37%) for him to do some damage without suppressing the average a bunch. Although Nimmo is pushing into his mid-30s, we are expecting another productive campaign as we’re forecasting a .254 average to go with 23 HR and 12 SB.
Sal Frelick (OF-MIL) put together a productive 2025 campaign that saw him hit .288 with 12 HR, 63 RBI, 76 R, and 19 SB across 594 PA, with a 114 wRC+ attesting to his productivity. The jump in power was especially interesting after he hit just 5 total HR in his previous 747 big-league PA. While still underwhelming, his 27% hard-hit rate, 3% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 85.5 represented a significant improvement from 2024 (19.5%, 0.5%, and 83.5 mph, respectively). Frelick’s bread and butter remains his stellar contact ability, with 89.5% overall and 93% in-zone contact rates in 2025. Given his plus contact ability and plus speed as well as modest pop, Frelick is a solid if unexciting OF for fantasy. We are projecting a .279 average, 14 HR, and 18 SB in 2026.
Ranger Suarez (SP-BOS) joins the Red Sox for his age-30 campaign and is coming off a solid final season with the Phillies in which he registered a 3.20 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 3.61 across 157.1 IP. The lefty’s average fastball velocity of 91 mph was a career low, representing a second straight season in which that figure has declined. But his walk rate was his lowest as a starter while his swinging-strike rate remained steady at 9.5% and the opposition’s 87% in-zone contact rate was his lowest since 2021. In 2025, Suarez leaned less on his fastball (14.5%) than ever before while his cutter usage (17.5%) was a career high and he utilized a total of 5 pitches at least 14.5% of the time, with his 90-mph sinker leading the way at 28.5%. That approach produced a 47% groundball rate while limiting the opposition to a low 31% hard-hit rate, 5.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 86.5 mph. While the limited strikeout upside caps his fantasy value, Suarez should remain a reliable – if unexciting – contributor. We have him projected for a 3.69 ERA and 8.8 K/9 over 165 IP this season.
Robby Snelling (SP-MIA) was reassigned to minor-league camp on Wednesday but remains a solid lottery ticket if you’re looking for a prospect to make an impact on the mound in 2026. The 22 year-old southpaw is a top-100 prospect who split the 2025 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A, compiling a 2.51 ERA, 11 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 2.72 xFIP across 136 IP. Snelling missed plenty of bats (13.5% swinging-strike rate) while the opposition’s overall (69.5%) and in-zone (77.5%) contact rates were not good at the Triple-A level. He deployed his 94.5-mph average heater (42.5% usage), 82.5-mph curve (29%) usage, and other pitches to good effect, limiting the opposition to a 28% hard-hit rate and average exit velo of 87 mph over his 63.2 IP in Triple-A. We have him projected for a 4.12 ERA and 8.4K/9 across 146 PA in 2026, although there’s the potential for more given his plus stuff and the solid control he showed in the high minors a year ago.
Sonny Gray SP-BOS) may have underwhelmed with his 4.28 ERA and career-low 91.5 mph average fastball velocity in his age-35 campaign with the Cardinals a year ago, but his 3.07 xFIP, 10 K/9, and career-low 1.9 BB/9 were all sharp. Encouragingly, his 12% swinging-strike rate came in above his career average (10.5%) while the opposition’s 74% overall and 87.5% in-zone contact rates came in around his career norms. Quality of contact, though, is a point of concern as Gray yielded a 40.5% hard-hit rate (37.5% career), career-high 10% barrel rate (6.5% career), and average exit velo of 89 mph (88.5 career). But he to some degree kept hitters off balance with a diverse repertoire that included deploying five pitches at a 12.5% or higher clip. At Fantistics, we are forecasting another quality campaign for Gray in 2026 as we project a 3.75 ERA and 9.6 K/9 over 186 IP.
Luis Castillo (SP-SEA) is coming off a solid if unspectacular 2025 campaign in which he registered a 3.54 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 4.09 xFIP. For the second straight season, his K/9 dipped, from 10 in 2023 to 9 in 2024, and then to a tick above 8 last year; unsurprisingly, his 11.5% swinging-strike rate was a career low while the opposition’s 78% overall and 84% in-zone contact rates were among the highest of his career. For the fourth straight season, though, his average fastball velo slipped, coming in at 95 mph. Lady Luck was certainly on his side, as Statcast shows a 46.5% hard-hit rate, 10.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 90.5 mph, all of which were career highs. On the plus side, Castillo’s 2.3 BB/9 was a career low. In 2026, we are projecting a 3.93 ERA and 8.2 K/9 across 175 PA as Castillo pushes into his mid-30s.
Shane Smith (SP-CHW) will start the team’s season opener in Milwaukee on the 26th following a solid MLB debut in 2025. In his age-25 campaign, the righty compiled a 3.81 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 4.23 xFIP across 146.1 IP. Some good fortune in the form of a .260 BABIP likely helped to suppress his ERA a little, but Smith missed some bats (12% swinging-strike rate) as the opposition’s 75% overall and 84.5% in-zone contact rates came in below league average. On the other hand, he surrendered some loud contact, as Statcast shows a 45.5% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 90.5 mph. Encouragingly, he pitched his best down the stretch, logging a 3.17 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.83 xFIP in 59.2 IP after the All-Star break. We are projecting a 3.99 ERA and 8.4 K/9 over 155 IP in 2026.
Shane McClanahan (SP-TB) is a wild card for fantasy in 2026 after a nerve issue that ultimately required surgery derailed his return from Tommy John surgery a year ago. There is certainly considerable risk in investing in the southpaw as he approaches age 29 since he last pitched in a MLB regular-season game back in 2023. But McClanahan was very good in 2021-2023 as he registered a 3.02 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 3.15 xFIP over 404.2 IP during that time. He missed lots of bats (15.5% swinging-strike rate) while limiting the opposition’s overall (69.5%) and in-zone (80.5%) contact rates. They also did not make a ton of loud contact against him, with Statcast showing a 39.5% hard-hit rate, average exit velo of 89.5 mph, and a barrel rate just under 9%. There may certainly be some rough spots as he settles back into big-league action, but McClanahan should be an intriguing value pick in fantasy drafts. He’s been sharp in spring action compiling a 3.38 ERA, 12.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 3.66 xFIP across 8 IP. We are optimistic about McClanahan in 2026 as we’re forecasting a 3.51 ERA and 9.3 K/9 across 145 IP for the southpaw.