Ahead of tomorrow’s matchup with Michigan, Dion Brown’s quote about his approach as a senior in his first NCAA Tournament keeps resonating with me. Brown said, “I have nothing to lose and everything to gain.”
That’s an accurate reflection of SLU’s vibe this afternoon and it’s probably the best possible mindset to have going into tomorrow. Josh Schertz has consistently praised Michigan as the best team in the country these past two days, and it’s clear that tomorrow is a David vs Goliath battle — if David and Goliath happened to be best friends.
The 9-seeded Billikens have already made their mark on the NCAA Tournament with a 102-77 shellacking of the Georgia Bulldogs. They’ve emphatically proved they can not just hang, but dominate power conference schools and put on a great showing representing both St. Louis and the Atlantic 10. In today’s press conference, Schertz discussed how the gap between the A-10 and the power conferences is much smaller than people think.
“Is it easier to go 16-2 in the A10 or 6-12 in the SEC? I’d say it’s easier to go 6-12 in the SEC but that’s for the bracketologists to decide,” he said.
However, Michigan is a different animal than Georgia—from both a basketball standpoint and obviously a mascot standpoint too. Schertz’s description of Michigan as the best team in the country is likely correct, and if he’s wrong, he’s not too far off. The three-headed frontcourt monster of Aday Maray, Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg is absolutely lethal, an overwhelming amount of size and skill between three players who complement each other very well. Eliott Cadeau is a great playmaker, Trey McKinney has frequently shown why he’s a 5-star freshman, and Roddy Gayle, a Niagara Falls native, brings a strong veteran presence. This is a really good team with a lot of weapons, and an elite coach in Dusty May.
The friendship between Josh Schertz and Dusty May makes this battle even more intriguing. It’s rare to see two teams play each other when both coaches have an exhaustive collection of the other teams’ practice tape. No, Dusty May and Josh Schertz aren’t taking cues from Connor Stallions or engaged in an elaborate, years-long game of espionage against each other. Instead, this twist is of the two coaches’ own making, a product of the two close friends sharing their practice tapes with each other. Throw in that they have similar philosophies and influences, and it makes for an incredibly interesting scout. I don’t know which team benefits from it, if any, but it’s cool and weird and the kind of thing that makes college basketball so special.
So, to get to the point, how does SLU pull off the upset against Michigan? This part will be pretty short and pretty obvious. SLU has to defend, rebound and make shots. Robbie Avila matches up sneakily well with Aday Mara, given Mara’s lack of mobility, and if Mara guards Avila, that shooting can neutralize the 7’3’’ Spaniard’s rim protection. That could free up a lot for SLU’s offense.
Schertz acknowledged it will take the best game of SLU’s season to pull off the upset. From a tactical standpoint, I’m not sure if there’s a specific key, and if I could identify it, I’d probably be coaching basketball. Considering that May and Schertz have had well over 12 hours of preparation already, I’m sure they have each had about a million ideas and then figured out how the other would likely counter the idea already. We’re talking about two basketball savants who understand the game on a far greater level than I do, and then you, the person reading this, does too (if you understand basketball on that level, please DM me so I can learn from you).
The blueprint for a Billiken victory likely happens along these basic lines: SLU’s defense is cohesive, doesn’t foul too much and forces Michigan into tough, contested shots. Then, SLU rebounds those shots. Then, SLU pushes the pace, attacks a Michigan defense that isn’t able to set itself up, and SLU hits shots at an above average rate. All three of those things likely need to happen for SLU to win.
At this point, the Saint Louis Billikens are playing with house money. They’ve proved they belong, they won the first NCAAT game for SLU in over 10 years, and now they have a chance to become March legends. It’ll take a Herculean effort, but they have a real chance to be giant slayers tomorrow.