After I clocked out for the week from my full time gig, I decided to spend a bit of time looking to see what the likelihood is the Winnipeg Jets will use their final 14 remaining games to move up or down in the standings.
The recent losses to the Nashville Predators and Boston Bruins have made a playoff bid even more unlikely, yet the True Northers are still only 5 points back of the Los Angeles Kings for the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot. However, with three more clubs between Winnipeg and a playoff berth, there are many other contenders for the 8th spot. I will dive more into the chances for the Nashville Predators, Seattle Kraken, or San Jose Sharks ousting the Kings for the post-season later, but lets just say that Los Angeles has by far the easiest schedule left to play…so they have a HUGE advantage.
Before I go on with what I discovered, here is how the bottom of National Hockey League’s standings looked before action got underway on Friday night (via ESPN):
Because of the huge imbalance between the team point totals between the Eastern & Western Conferences (84 to 72 pt cut off for playoffs), franchises like the New Jersey Devils and Florida Panthers are 100% out of the running, while the teams high up in the above graphic from the West are right in the thick of a wildcard race.
Like I mentioned earlier, Los Angeles has a huge advantage for the #8 spot….not only having current possession of it, but also facing a litany of bad clubs as they make their way to Game 82. The Kings’ remaining opposition have an average of 63.93 pts this year, thanks to 3 games versus the last place Vancouver Canucks and 2 against the 2nd last Calgary Flames. Eight of the 14 matches will be at home, including their next contest against the Buffalo Sabres (the only top 10 team they play). So….it would seem it is LA’s spot to lose. Time to look at the other wildcard contenders, including the Kraken, Predators, & Sharks, who are all within 2 points.
San Jose has an advantage with an extra game to play before the season ends, plus they also benefit from the second easiest schedule of the teams I looked at. Macklin Celebrini and company won’t have to square off a against a top 10 team in their 15 matches left, with the opposition earning an average of 70.13 pts to date. Eight home game versus seven on the road. Possibly their 10 games left against the NHL’s bottom 10 clubs could help them overtake the Kings?
Nashville has the next best odds, based on their remaining schedule that features an average opposition of 75.86 pts. The Preds have a big bonus of playing SJ three times and LA twice in their remaining 14 contests (the clubs they are chasing), while mainly squaring off against middling franchises (only 2 gms vs top 10 NHL teams). Splitting their games between home & the road, it is not that improbable the Predators could make a late charge.
Finally, Seattle has lost 6 out of their last 8 contests to make this wildcard race interesting and the remaining schedule includes 4 games versus each of the NHL’s top & bottom 10 clubs. With an opposition average of 78.07 pts and having to play the majority of their last 14 games on the road (9), the Kraken might have permanently dropped out of playoff contention. They still do have the best Goal Differential (-11) of the teams vying for the final post-season spot and get to play the league’s bottom 10 teams 4 more times…so it is possible that they right the ship in time.
The Winnipeg Jets are next up, 5 pts back of the Kings and also have to play 9 of their remaining 14 games on the road, where they haven’t been very good (11-16-5). Besides the travel woes, the True Northers’ remaining schedule is the toughest of all the NHL’s bottom teams, with an average of 78.64 pts earned to date for their opposition. The Jets play the league’s top club (COL) twice, the main part of the 3 matches versus the NHL’s top 10 teams, plus square off versus 5 of the bottom dwellers.
At this point of my review, I figured I would switch from seeing the probability of our club moving up in the standings to see what the chances are they could drop a spot or two? That brought another 4 franchises into the scope of my examination, the St. Louis Blues, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the New York Rangers. I figured that the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames are out of reach, so didn’t dive into their remaining schedules.
While Toronto is technically still in front of Winnipeg (3 pt lead), they have played an extra game and face nearly as difficult of opposition as the Jets do (77.61 pts average). So I think they are a potential threat to our club’s chances at earning better odds for the upcoming Lottery Draft and figured they needed to be included. The Buds have lost Auston Matthews for the season and play most of their 13 games on the road (8), while only having to face 2 of the NHL’s top 10 teams before their season wraps up. The last time the Jets had a shot at a great draft pick, the Leafs ended up doing better in the lottery to get the 1st overall selection. Not something any Winnipeg fan wants to see this year.
St. Louis is only 2 points behind Winnipeg at this point, with equal games left on the schedule. The Blues’ schedule suggests they do have a good chance at passing the Jets, as they play bottom dwellers 6 more times this year, while only facing off against the elite clubs twice. With an opposition average of 76.07 pts and the fact that they split the 14 games between home & away, a move up the standings is very possible…especially since STL is 6-2-2 in their past 10 contests.
Both Chicago and New York are 3 pts behind Winnipeg before Friday’s action, but the Blackhawks’ opposition (76.43 pts average) should be much easier than the Rangers’ (78 pts average). The Hawks split their remaining 14 matches between the road and Illinois, while having the advantage of playing 7 of the league’s bottom 10 teams and only 3 of the best ones. New York has a difficult schedule, but do get to play 9 of the remaining 13 games at home. The Rangers need to play 3 more elite clubs, but could possibly feast on the 5 fellow bottom dwellers they play. The NYers were hot for a bit there, but have since lost 3 straight and could be a tough one for Winnipeg to let pass them in the standings.
Winnipeg does play teams like the NY Rangers, Blackhawks, & Blues still, so these outcomes could play a big role in who finishes with better odds of drafting Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg.
So after all that, I am not sure I have a better grasp of where I expect the Winnipeg Jets to end up when Game 82 is in the books. That being said if I was forced to make a choice, I am leaning towards it being most likely that the True Northers end up with the 5th best odds when NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman announces how the balls drop at the Lottery Draft on May 5th.
Let me hear in the Comment section whether this article has made you feel better or worse about the Jets’ end of the season?