How NBA expansion to Seattle, Las Vegas could impact Raptors

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The NBA appears set to at least partly undo one of its greatest mistakes, abandoning two of its three markets in the Pacific Northwest.

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The league announced Wednesday its board of governors voted “to authorize the league to formally explore potential team expansion to Las Vegas and Seattle.”

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The NBA is using an investment bank as a strategic adviser to look into the markets, potential ownership groups, arena infrastructure “and the broader economic implications of expansion,” they said.

“Today’s vote reflects our Board’s interest in exploring potential expansion to Las Vegas and Seattle – two markets with a long history of support for NBA basketball,” NBA commissioner Adam Silver said. “We look forward to taking this next step and engaging with interested parties.”

Rumours of expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas have percolated for years, but there had been debate whether existing owners really wanted to trade billions in immediate dollars (expansion fees are rumoured to start at $7.5 billion US), in exchange for decreasing their annual cut of the revenue pie by allowing two new franchises to get an equal cut.

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The NBA left Vancouver, where the Grizzlies had entered in 2001, after six seasons for Memphis. The Seattle SuperSonics were unceremoniously relocated to Oklahoma City in 2008 when the owner failed to convince citizens to pay for a new arena or renovations. The Sonics had been in Seattle since 1967, while Vancouver had been lauded as one of the NBA’s best road cities before the move, but had been mismanaged, leading to constant losing seasons.

The Portland Trail Blazers became the only team in the area following the two moves.

WHEN MIGHT EXPANSION HAPPEN?

The fastest that two teams could get up and running would be for the 2028-29 NBA season, according to reports. That’s even though the old Sonics arena has now been revitalized and is seen as NBA-ready — the NHL’s Kraken and WNBA’s Storm currently play out of Climate Pledge Arena — while Las Vegas has T-Mobile Arena, which is the home of the Vegas Golden Knights and already hosts the NBA Cup semifinals and championship.

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The NBA clearly wants time to attract as many bidders as possible to up the price and perhaps also to make sure expansion at the end of the decade is the proper call for the league.

That said, Silver said way back in December of 2020 that they were taking a renewed look at expansion after declining to add any new franchises since the Charlotte Bobcats in 2004.

Before the Bobcats (now the Hornets) were added, the NBA had expanded to Canada in 1995, added another two teams (Orlando and Minnesota) in 1989, two others (the original Charlotte Hornets and Miami) a year earlier and the Dallas Mavericks in 1980.

Eight teams had been added in the 1970s, including four from the merger with the American Basketball Association.

Of the eight teams to join the NBA since 1980, only three (Miami, Dallas and Toronto) have won a title. Of the relocated franchises (Oklahoma City, Memphis and New Orleans), only the Thunder, last season, won it all and they are three of the smallest markets in the league (some owners have even reportedly mused the league would be better off moving the Grizzlies or Pelicans instead of expanding).

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HOW MIGHT IT IMPACT THE RAPTORS?

Adding two franchises located in the West would mean 17 franchises in the Western Conference, but only 15 in the East. That obviously won’t happen, so an existing team will be heading to the Eastern Conference, joining the Raptors.

Because it’s both cheaper and less taxing on bodies playing in the East (fewer long flights for teams located more centrally, who had been forced for years to play in the West) and because the West has more often than not been the superior conference — meaning it’s usually harder to make the playoffs — teams will be lining up to make the move.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been seen as the most logical choice, but Memphis and New Orleans are believed to be angling to switch as well.

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Expansion could force realignment of divisions. Toronto currently plays in the Atlantic with Boston, New York, Brooklyn  and Philadelphia. There also are Central and Southeast Divisions in the East, but the league used to only have two divisions per conference with seven teams in each.

Could they go back to that but make it eight teams in each division? In the NHL, Toronto spent the entire 1980s and the start of the 1990s in a division with a team in Minnesota (along with Detroit, Chicago and others). Perhaps the Wolves and Raptors could become northern rivals?

If the Wolves do come East, it will make the tail end of this decade potentially tougher for Toronto because Anthony Edwards — who will still be in his prime in 2028-29 — is an elite player and the Wolves are a well-run organization who should remain contenders for a while.

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The other impact is potentially losing a player in the expansion draft. When the Bobcats joined, the 2004 expansion draft allowed the 29 existing teams to protect eight players and Toronto ended up not having a player selected.

Charlotte only really came away with one quality player, Gerald Wallace, from the expansion draft and was probably the NBA’s worst-run franchise until they were rebranded in 2013 back to the Hornets.

When Toronto and Vancouver were added, each of the then 27 teams lost a player in the expansion draft (B.J. Armstrong was Toronto’s top pick, but declined to play for the club, Greg Anthony was Vancouver’s top choice). In both 1988 and 1989, 23-of-25 teams lost a player.

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It’s unclear who the expansion clubs would pick from. At the moment, in 2028-29, the Raptors only have Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl under contract. Collin Murray-Boyles, Ja’Kobe Walter and first-round picks in 2026, 2027 and 2028 probably will be signed too, but youngsters on rookie deals might not be expansion-draft eligible.

The expansion teams also will be inserted into the rookie draft, probably in the 3-6 range if the NBA follows historical precedent. If the Raptors are bad by then, it could push them away from a high pick.

Back in the day, the league tied a hand behind Toronto and Vancouver’s back in not allowing them to win the lottery their first few years (which is why Toronto was not given the first pick after winning the 1996 lottery and had to settle for second, missing out on Allen Iverson for Marcus Camby in one of the greatest drafts ever).

As well, ownership, which could be solely Rogers by then, would receive a huge influx of cash from expansion fees (there have been rumours the media conglomerate could sell a minority stake or spin off its sports assets at some point, it’s unclear how this would impact either of those decisions).

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