Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
Now that’s a Sweet 16, folks!
We got some outstanding games on both Thursday (Purdue-Texas, Iowa-Nebraska) and Friday (arguably all of them?), setting the stage for four more epic showdowns with berths in the Final Four on the line.
All three remaining No. 1 seeds marched on, though Duke needed a second-half surge to escape Rick Pitino’s red-hot St. John’s team. Illinois beat Houston in Houston, while Tennessee overcame a raucous Iowa State crowd in Chicago to defeat the shorthanded Cyclones. Oh, and Dan Hurley beat Tom Izzo in a duel of two March magicians.
The Big Ten has half of the Elite Eight, and while that includes year-long powerhouses in Michigan, Purdue and Illinois, upstart Iowa also joins the mix. Ben McCollum has worked wonders in his first year in charge in Iowa City, winning exactly the way he did at the Division II level before this.
If these two days are any indication, we should get four more terrific contests this weekend. Who has the best path to Indianapolis and, eventually, a national championship? We take our best guess below.
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The Wildcats’ towering, physical frontcourt made mincemeat of the Arkansas frontline on Thursday night, drilling the Razorbacks for 60 points in the paint as part of a 1.36 points per possession performance in a 109-88 victory. Arizona only took eight 3-pointers the entire game and still cruised, leading by double-digits for all of the final 26 minutes.
Purdue is a team of veterans, and the Boilermakers will make every effort to force the up-and-down Wildcats into a half-court game. Arkansas chose to run with Arizona (the Razorbacks had 80 possessions), and that proved extremely unwise. Purdue has played only one game north of 72 possessions the entire season.
Nothing comes easy in March, and Michigan experienced that firsthand on Friday night against an Alabama squad still without key guard Aden Holloway. Thanks to a flurry of Crimson Tide jumpers, the Wolverines trailed at halftime, but after the break, Michigan leaned on the Tide with its physicality and got a healthy dose of shot making from Elliot Cadeau, Yaxel Lendeborg and Roddy Gayle Jr. It was a fantastic basketball game, but Michigan ultimately won comfortably.
Dusty May’s squad advances to face Tennessee on Sunday for a berth in the Final Four. That would mark May’s second appearance on college basketball’s biggest stage, the first coming via a wild run with Florida Atlantic as a No. 9 seed in 2023. His bruising frontcourt trio of Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara will be formidable, but the Volunteers have big bodies of their own. Michigan will be a clear favorite again in the Elite Eight, just like the rest of this season’s “big three” frontrunners.
Duke survived against St. John’s on Friday night, erasing a 10-point deficit in the second half after a flurry of turnovers had staked the Red Storm to a significant advantage. Isaiah Evans (25 points) and Cam Boozer (22 points) carried the offense, but it was the unlikely heroism of Caleb Foster that saved the Blue Devils. Just three weeks after surgery on a broken foot, Foster pulled a Willis Reed and gave Duke 11 points in 19 minutes off the bench, including some crucial buckets after St. John’s had gone on its run.
That puts Duke through to Sunday, where another half-court slugfest awaits against UConn. Jon Scheyer bested one coaching legend in Rick Pitino, but he now has to face down Dan Hurley, winner of two national championships in the last three years. The health of Foster and Pat Ngongba II will be a major storyline, as both may not quite be themselves just 48 hours after a grinder of a victory over the Red Storm. But with Evans and Boozer, Duke can play with — and beat — anyone.
The Illini overcame the geographic disadvantage to dominate Houston in Houston. Their much-maligned defense was the story, holding the Cougars to just 31 points in the first 30 minutes of the game. This will be Illinois’ second Elite Eight trip since 2005, when it lost in the title game to North Carolina.
The other Elite Eight appearance in that time span came in 2024 against UConn, a game infamous for the Huskies’ otherworldly 30-0 run. Brad Underwood’s squad should avoid such a debacle this year: Instead of globe-stomping No. 1 seed, Illinois drew the upstart Iowa Hawkeyes. Illinois did win in Iowa City earlier this season, going wire-to-wire and leading by as many as 18, but this showdown for the Final Four could be a challenging slog between two ball screen-heavy offenses.
The Huskies ended the fever dream of a possible Final Four made up entirely of Big Ten teams, escaping from a battle with Michigan State with a victory on Friday night. It looked like it might be a laugher at first after UConn jumped out to a 25-6 advantage in the first 10 minutes, including a scorching 6-of-7 start from beyond the arc. The Spartans battled all the way back, though, even briefly taking a lead in the second half.
Dan Hurley’s squad displayed impressive resilience, regrouping from Michigan State’s counterpunches and throwing a few of its own. Alex Karaban’s deep triple with 1:39 remaining was the biggest shot of the night. UConn now gets a blue-blood battle with Duke in front of what should be a wild crowd in Washington, DC. A third Final Four appearance in four seasons would be quite an achievement for Hurley — even the great Jim Calhoun never did that.
No. 3 Michigan State
67-63
The Boilermakers withstood a game effort from a spunky Texas squad, getting a clutch Trey Kaufman-Renn tip-in to break a tie with 0.7 seconds remaining. TKR’s effort on the glass gave Purdue its second Elite Eight appearance in the last three seasons. Texas put up one heck of a fight, as the No. 11 seed Longhorns knocked down 11 triples and led by four with five minutes remaining. However, the veteran Boilermakers clamped down on defense and made enough plays to survive.
Purdue now gets the West’s No. 1 seed, Arizona, in a regional final in San Jose. The Boilers’ half-court offense should find some success per usual, though TKR and Oscar Cluff will be tested in the paint. Purdue must also find a way to contain big wings Brayden Burries and Ivan Kharchenkov; Texas’ Tramon Mark and Dailyn Swain just combined for 44 points on 17-of-28 shooting from the field.
Tennessee got the benefit of facing Iowa State without arguably its best player, Joshua Jefferson. To the Volunteers’ credit, they took full advantage, particularly in the paint. They outrebounded the undermanned Cyclones 43-22 and grabbed 53.3 percent of their misses. Top scorers Ja’Kobi Gillespie (16 points) and Nate Ament (18 points) contributed as usual, but the difference might have come via double-doubles from both Felix Okpara and Jaylen Carey.
Rick Barnes is now back in the Elite Eight for the third straight season, an impressive accomplishment considering Tennessee previously had not made this round since 2010. The Vols will attempt to reach their first ever Final Four on Sunday, though an imposing foe — top-seeded Michigan and its dominant defense — stands in the way.
The legend of Ben McCollum continues to grow. After a staggering run of success at the Division II level, including four national championships, he immediately guided Drake to its first NCAA Tournament win since 1971. A year later at Iowa, he has the Hawkeyes in the Elite Eight for the first time since 1987. Quite simply, he wins big wherever he goes.
The Hawkeyes conquered Nebraska in a Big Ten Sweet 16 battle on Thursday night, pulling away late for a 77-71 win. Iowa did not hold a lead in the game until star guard Bennett Stirtz’s 3 with just over two minutes remaining, and the Hawkeyes made huge plays down the stretch – including taking advantage of Nebraska only having four players on the court – to seal the victory. Next up is another Big Ten foe in Illinois, who beat these Hawkeyes, 75-69, in Iowa City on Jan. 11.
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