The Elite Eight is set, and now it’s time to hand out spots in the Final Four. Saturday’s March Madness slate is headlined by a huge showdown between the Arizona Wildcats and Purdue Boilermakers. It’s No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the West Region. Tipoff at the SAP Center in San Jose, California is set for 8:49 pm ET on TBS.
Here are my Purdue vs. Arizona predictions.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats odds
Money line: Purdue +200 / Arizona -245
Spread: Purdue +6 (-110) / Arizona -6 (-110)
Total: Over 152.5 (-115) / Under 152.5 (-105)
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats best bet #1: Over 152.5 (-115)
Arizona poured in 109 points against Arkansas on Thursday as the two teams completely blew away a total in the mid-160s. The Wildcats probably could have scored even more if the game wasn’t so lopsided, as they dominated from the jump and won by 21. The ‘Cats have surpassed the 80-point mark in seven of their last 10 outings, including a 92-point showing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Tommy Lloyd’s team ranks No. 7 in the land by scoring at 86.7 points per game. Five players on the roster are averaging double-figures in points, and two others are scoring at least 8.8 ppg. Six finished with at least 14 points during the victory over Arkansas.
Purdue is averaging 87.3 points through three tournament games so far even though star guard Braden Smith has been ice cold (9-for-28 from the field and 0-for-7 from three-point range in the past two contests). It’s hard to see Smith continuing to be held in check, and Purdue’s dynamic offense will obviously be even more potent whenever Smith finds the range
Both teams rank in the top eight nationally in shooting percentage. Purdue is also 12th in three-point shooting percentage; Arizona is No. 35. Unsurprisingly, the over is 4-0 in the Boilermakers’ last four games and 4-1 in the Wildcats’ last five.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats best bet #2: Braden Smith Over 15.5 points (-115)
Even with his outside shot not falling, Smith has surpassed this 15.5 quota twice so far in the Big Dance and is averaging 18.0 ppg. That bodes well for his numbers moving forward. Purdue generally likes to slow things down and run half-court sets that often result in low-post looks for Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff or three-point heaves by Fletcher Loyer. Head coach Matt Painter’s squad probably won’t be able to play like that against Arizona, which does a great job of controlling the tempo and running up and down the court. Expect plenty of transition opportunities for both teams, which is where Smith thrives.