From March 9th to March 21st, the Flames held the 31st place spot in the NHL. This made it extremely likely that they would receive their first-ever top-three draft selection in franchise history.
However, following a six-game point streak on their recent homestand, they are now in 29th place in the league. This makes their projected 2026 draft pick significantly worse.
When they were in 31st place, they had a 57.9% chance of selecting in the top three. At 29th, their odds drop all the way to just 19.3%. This means that the Flames may be playing their way out of acquiring a future top-line forward such as Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg.
Let’s take a look at some players the Flames could target with a pick in between 4th and 6th overall:
Keaton Verhoeff or Chase Reid
After the big two of McKenna and Stenberg, Keaton Verhoeff and Chase Reid are widely considered the next best players of the 2026 draft class. However, both of them are right-shot defencemen, which is the one position where Calgary’s cupboard is actually full. Zayne Parekh and Hunter Brzustewicz are both RHD, and they are already showing potential in the NHL. Adding another RHD might seem redundant.
Missing out on a top-three pick strips the Flames of their ability to address their most glaring organizational need: a high-end forward. They could land in a situation where earlier teams clear the elite forward tier, which forces them to pick yet another right-handed defenceman.
Carson Carels or Alberts Smits
If the Flames decide that they simply cannot draft another right-shot defender, pivoting to the left side becomes the logical move. Unlike the right side, the Flames don’t have very many high-end left-shot defencemen.
Carson Carels or Alberts Smits would both immediately become the Flames’ top LHD prospect if drafted by the club. But for a fan base dreaming of a McKenna-led power play, selecting a steady defenceman feels like a consolation prize. It addresses a structural need on the roster, but it doesn’t move the needle on the team’s scoring woes.
Caleb Malhotra
Caleb Malhotra has been steadily climbing draft rankings all season, and analysts now widely consider him the top natural centre available in this class. High-end defencemen and wingers dominate this class, making Malhotra a legitimate option for Calgary.
However, fans may see selecting Malhotra over consensus defensive prizes like Verhoeff or Reid as a reach since it’s generally a cardinal sin to pass on the best player available simply to fill a positional need. However, if the Flames view Malhotrra as being in the same tier as the top defenders, the desperate need for elite offensive talent may outweigh the desire to add more to an already deep defensive cupboard.
Conclusion
Missing out on a high-end forward like McKenna or Stenberg would be a massive blow to the Flames’ rebuild, especially considering how close they were to the bottom of the standings just a few weeks ago. However, the Flames are still in a position to add a high-impact player to their core, even if it doesn’t exactly fulfill their biggest organizational need.