The Valero Texas Open, the final stop before golf’s first major, the Masters, is teeing off this week at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks course. While some big names like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are absent, the field is still strong, and predictions are swirling about who will claim the title. Early insights suggest a wide-open tournament, with many experts disagreeing on a definitive favorite.
The Contenders
The latest odds from FanDuel position Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg as co-favorites, both at +1500 (cbssports.com). Jordan Spieth and Russell Henley are close behind at +1600, with Robert MacIntyre at +2000 (cbssports.com).
SportsLine’s proprietary model, which has an impressive track record including nailing 16 majors, simulated the tournament 10,000 times (cbssports.com). Interestingly, the model projects that Russell Henley, despite being one of the favorites, may barely crack the top five.
Another player garnering attention is Sepp Straka (29-1, DraftKings). Despite battling “chronic Tommy Fleetwood syndrome” (struggling with one bad round each week), Straka has finished in the top 15 in three of his last four signature events (golfdigest.com). His strong tee-to-green performance this year makes him a compelling choice, especially against a slightly weaker field this week.
The Dark Horse: Robert MacIntyre
While not a complete longshot, Robert MacIntyre at 20-1 (BetRivers) presents an intriguing dark horse pick. The Texas terrain, with its emphasis on short game, could play to MacIntyre’s strengths. He has been exceptional off the tee and on the green this season, and his irons showed significant improvement at The Players, where he finished fourth (golfdigest.com). In his previous start at TPC San Antonio, he gained two strokes on the field tee-to-green and another two strokes with his putter, indicating his potential on this course (golfdigest.com). Given his strong form and suitability for the course, MacIntyre could surprise many and contend for the win.
Other potential “sleeper” picks include Keith Mitchell (+3000 at BetMGM), who has a strong history at the Valero Texas Open and an excellent tee game, and Denny McCarthy (+3300 at BetMGM), who has logged four Top 20 finishes in six career starts at this event, including a runner-up finish in 2024 (sports.yahoo.com).
The Valero Texas Open promises an exciting prelude to the Masters, with a field where any golfer could emerge victorious. While the favorites are certainly strong contenders, keeping an eye on players like Robert MacIntyre could lead to a surprising, and potentially very rewarding, outcome.