We’re entering the final stretch of the 2025-26 NHL season, which means the Vezina Trophy race has been narrowed down to two choices: Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy or New York Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin. At this point, everyone else is just fighting for a chance to garner a nod as a finalist.
Here’s the case for both of them. (I said it would be out on April 1, but here it is on April 2.) We’ll conclude with a few honorable mentions for potential finalists. All stats are as of Thursday morning, April 2.
Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders
For the first few check-ins on the tracker, Vasilevskiy was listed first because he seemed like the clear frontrunner. That has changed a bit, so I’m putting Sorokin first. Post-Olympic hockey hasn’t been as good to Vasilevskiy, while Sorokin hasn’t always been stellar in that time either, but he’s separated himself in a key advanced stat.
Sorokin has a 29.7 goals saved above expected (GSAx), which leads the NHL regardless of games played. Vasilevskiy is fifth with a 22.2 GSAx. Since the Olympic Break, Sorokin has a .896 save percentage, compared to Vasilevskiy’s .891 SV%. Both have similar records in that span. Their season-long save percentages are identical (.912). He also recorded another shutout to reach seven on the year.
Unless Vasilevskiy goes on a tear during this final stretch, there is a clear tiebreaker that could swing this race in Sorokin’s favor.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning
There’s still a good case for the 2019 Vezina winner to win the award for a second time. Vasilevskiy’s 35 wins are the most in the NHL. His goals-against average (GAA) is the second-best in the league at 2.32. Meanwhile, Sorokin’s GAA is 2.59.
Related: NHL 2025-26 Power Rankings: Week 22
More than the stats, Vasilevskiy’s presence has a major impact on his team, and that can’t be ignored. According to USA Today, the Lightning have a .712 points percentage when Vasilevskiy starts and a .545 points percentage without him. Meanwhile, the Islanders have a .580 points percentage with Sorokin between the pipes, but a .517 points percentage when he’s sitting out (‘Is Ilya Sorokin or Andrei Vasilevskiy more deserving of Vezina?’ USA Today, April 1, 2026).
There’s a significant difference in the results when both teams’ starters are unavailable. However, despite the Lightning’s star power, they are elevated that much more when Vasilevskiy is their last line of defense. Sure, the Lightning with a backup is a bit better than the Islanders with a backup, but it’s surprising how much the playing field evens out.
But if we’re looking at who is the best goaltender, Sorokin has a leg up in terms of the stats.
Vezina Honorable Mentions
Washington Capitals goalie Logan Thompson remains a strong candidate to be a finalist. He’s tied with Sorokin and Vasilevskiy in save percentage. His 28.2 GSAx is second in the NHL. His 2.46 GAA is ahead of Sorokin’s, and he finished fourth in the Vezina voting last season. A third or fourth-place finish would be reasonable.
Scott Wedgewood leads the NHL with a 2.19 GAA and a .916 SV%, but the advanced stats don’t favor him as a winner. His 16.3 GSAx is eighth in the NHL, and few are falling for the guise of a goalie playing for the Colorado Avalanche. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. It’s plug-and-play for the Avs’ goalies. He could get his share of third and fourth-place votes as well.
Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman has been phenomenal of late. Something must have changed after Vasilevskiy gave him a beatdown in the Stadium Series. Since that game, Swayman has a .923 SV% and has a 28 GSAx, which is good for third in the NHL. His .907 SV% and 2.73 GAA overall likely mean he’s not a finalist, but his recent run deserves some recognition.
It’s a tight race to the finish. We’ll be back at the end of the regular season in a couple of weeks and offer our final prediction of who will win the award.
