Montreal Canadiens Cole Caufield just pulled within a single goal of 50 on the season by scoring his third-consecutive game-winning goal, which also happens to be his league-leading 12th overall. Meanwhile Nick Suzuki inched closer to his first 100-point season with an assist on the late tally against the New York Rangers.
That gave Suzuki two assists in the game and 94 points on the season, as the Canadiens won their seventh in a row (all in regulation) to reach 98 points in the standings with seven games to go. These are undeniably feats of amazing skill Montreal Canadiens fans haven’t witnessed in years and in over a generation in some cases.
Related: Canadiens’ Caufield Scores Overtime Winner for 40th Goal
For example, the last time the Canadiens earned 100 points was in 2016-17 (103), when they coincidentally also last won seven straight in regulation (eight, actually). That was the also the last time they won the division (in the regular season) only to lose in embarrassing fashion to those same Rangers in Round 1.
Canadiens Have Shot at First Atlantic Title Since 2017
Acknowledging the 2017 edition of the Canadiens as contenders made sense on paper, as they were division winners. However, even then, they were ranked seventh in the league, with the Washington Capitals clearing them by 15 points en route to winning the Presidents’ Trophy. The Rangers were also a single point behind the Habs with 102. So, it wasn’t as monumental of an upset as some may remember. The humiliating part is the first-round loss, while the Nashville Predators, with whom the Habs partnered to make the infamous P.K. Subban trade (for Shea Weber) the previous offseason, reached the Stanley Cup Final.
Some may have seen those Canadiens as having been built to win it all, but they then proceeded to miss the playoffs the next two seasons. It should have been three, in a row but fate intervened in the form of a global pandemic, enabling the Habs to reach a hastily conceived qualifying round in 2020 (and defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins to reach Round 1).
Ultimately, if they couldn’t make it out of Round 1 in 2017, were they really contenders? And that’s the question Canadiens fans must ask themselves as they brace for a likely first-round series against either the Tampa Bay Lightning or Buffalo Sabres. It’s possible they face someone else, but for the time being it appears as though they’ll finish as either the No. 2 or No. 3 seeds in the Atlantic, with the three teams seemingly entrenched as the top three.
Canadiens vs. Lightning
Take the Lightning. Before the Canadiens started their current seven-game winning streak, the Bolts held a four-point lead with a game in hand. After effectively playing out of their minds for the last two weeks as arguably the hottest team in the entire league, the Habs have proceeded to narrow the gap by two whole points. Wowee.
Granted, the game in hand no longer applies, but the Lightning (and Sabres) do hold the tiebreaker with (much) more regulation wins (38 to 32). And, while one of the Canadiens’ seven wins came against them, on March 31, it’s hard to look at it as ironclad proof the Habs can beat them in a seven-game series.
The Lightning outshot them 37-23 in the contest, outplaying the Canadiens for large stretches. Heading in, the tale of the tape told a similar story: The Lightning’s expected goal share was fourth in the league, while the Canadiens’ was 23rd. The Lightning had allowed the third-lowest goals per game (2.75), while the Habs had allowed the ninth-most (3.12).
It’s not necessarily a match-up the Canadiens should want, although they do admittedly have a chance. A chance simply isn’t good enough to declare them contenders, even if they appear to be peaking at the right time. The same was true last year, when they won six in a row at around this time. Hell, they were even closer to the finish line. They then lost their next three before needing a win in Game 82 to clinch a berth by the skin of their teeth.
All this current streak truly suggests, along with all the accolades the Canadiens continue to impressively pile up, is that they’re better than they were last season. And that’s perfectly, even beyond, acceptable for the youngest team in the NHL on opening night. It’s an accomplishment and a sign that they’ll be actually contending soon, perhaps even next season. However, in the present, there are still signs of immaturity in their collective game.
Sure, the Canadiens may co-lead the NHL in comeback wins with 25 (Anaheim Ducks). However, they’re also near the top of the league in terms of blown leads. And, when the Canadiens, leading by two against the Rangers in the third period of Thursday night’s game, found themselves tied 2-2, against the conference’s weakest team no less, it should have been readily apparent that they’re not quite there yet.
Hughes Justifiably (Still) Stands Pat at Deadline
Holes in the lineup remain, holes that general manager Kent Hughes deemed it didn’t make sense to fill at the trade deadline. His inaction was entirely justified, as making a move to add a second-line centre or right-handed defenseman didn’t make sense taking into account the capital it would have cost and the condition of the team’s goaltending at the time. Why devote assets to trying to put your team over the top when the trio of Sam Montembeault, Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler had been as inconsistent as they have? With Dobes and Fowler also being as young as they are, it also didn’t make sense to trade to improve said goaltending, when they’ll hopefully continue to get better, like the rest of the team.
While you don’t need an elite goalie to win the Cup, you do need reliable, league-average goaltending at the very least. And, up until that point, especially as the game that March 6 against the Anaheim Ducks (the evening after the deadline had passed) proved, their goaltending wasn’t good enough. To his credit, Dobes has since taken his game up a (several) level(s). Per MoneyPuck.com, he’s now among the top goalies in terms of goals saved above expected. So, was Hughes wrong? Did he make a mistake by not going all-in?
It’s probably more accurate to say Hughes was prudent.
Many fans won’t hesitate to rebuke any criticism on the part of analysts directed at the head coach or general manager, arguing something along the lines of “They must know what they’re doing, because they’ve got a job in the NHL.” The absurdity of such a claim, that they’re incapable of making a mistake and thus every firing fans have ever witnessed has been wholly unjustified, aside, keep in mind the following:
Hughes has successfully navigated this team to consistent year-over-year improvement since 2022. He does know what he’s doing. The leaps and bounds by which the team has grown in a short amount of time prove that. And, while it’s hard to argue against how, had he traded for immediate help last month, the Canadiens could be in even better position right now, it’s not like he hurt their chances. Look at their current streak as evidence to that effect, with many suggesting the team are legitimate contenders right now, even without him having added to the lineup.
So, no. Hughes wasn’t wrong. He was right to stick with the players he had and right to stick to the process, even if doesn’t translate to a Stanley Cup this year. There’s obviously a chance the Canadiens overperform and go on a run, similar in length to in 2021 when they reached the Stanley Cup Final, only to lose to the Lightning in five games. That Habs team was outmatched and outclassed by a far deeper opponent. This team has closed the gap through its rebuild, but one regular-season win doesn’t mean they’re on the same level yet.
As nice as it is for the Canadiens to boast a 40-goal scorer for the first time since 1994 (Vincent Damphousse), that doesn’t make them a contender. Ditto for how amazing as it is is that Suzuki can realistically give the team its first 100-point scorer since 1986 (Mats Naslund). That’s merely anecdotal evidence the team is great. They still have a lot to prove.
With how 2024-25 ended top of mind, let’s see how they finish 2025-26. If they keep it up, especially against the Lightning when they next face them on April 9, it makes sense to reassess at that point. As the Canadiens’ young core improves effectively with each passing game, they may very well win the division and emerge as legitimate contenders. However, until the point at which fans can look at their opponents in the first round, whether it be the Lightning or Sabres or someone else, and say with the utmost confidence that they’ve got this, they don’t and they aren’t.
Not yet… but soon.