The nightcap of Saturday’s Final Four features arguably the two best teams in the nation, the Michigan Wolverines and the Arizona Wildcats. What is absolutely certain is that the winner will be favored to cut down the nets as National Champion on Monday night. What’s also a guarantee is that this showdown between No. 1 seeds will be high on entertainment.
Tipoff at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana is set for 8:49 pm ET on TBS. Here is my Michigan vs. Arizona prediction.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Arizona Wildcats odds
Money line: Michigan -125 / Arizona +105
Spread: Michigan -1.5 (-110) / Arizona +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 157.5 (-112) / Under 157.5 (-108)
Michigan Wolverines vs. Arizona Wildcats best bet: Arizona ML (+105)
The key for Arizona in this matchup is to contain Michigan beyond the three-point line. That is one area in which the Wolverines excel and the Wildcats do not. Of course, it’s not as if Arizona can’t drain the three-ball; it simply doesn’t have to since its ability to score around the basket is so elite. Additional good news for the ‘Cats is that they defend the perimeter extremely well. Big Blue may be shooting almost 45 percent from the land of plenty during the NCAA Tournament, but it won’t be easy to replicate that number in this semifinal battle. Arizona has the manpower to combat Michigan down low, too, so the Wolverines’ dynamic offense may not go quite as crazy as it has against less formidable foes. Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas, Tobe Awaka, and Ivan Karchenkov are all capable low-post defenders for the Wildcats.
Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd, who gave his program an additional boost by silencing North Carolina rumors with a contract extension, has a team that is excellent in turnover margin (it’s worth noting that UM is below average in that department), rebounding margin, and free-throw rate. Arizona also boasts a clearly superior backcourt thanks to Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley — and guard play often makes the difference in March Madness.
Anything less than the game of the tournament would be a disappointment. As a slight plus-money underdog, Arizona has the value.