Jannik Sinner has a handful of scenarios that will ensure he returns to the world No 1 position at the Monte Carlo Masters – and his big rival can do nothing to stop the march of the in-form Italian.
Carlos Alcaraz’s exit at the semi-final stage of the Indian Wells Masters and his shock defeat against Sebastian Korda at the Miami Open left the door ajar for Sinner to chew up the huge points gap he had opened up at the top of the ATP Rankings.
The Spaniard pulled clear of Sinner at the top of the rankings after he won the Australian Open in January, but Sinner roared back by winning the Indian Wells and Miami Masters and adding 2,000 fresh ranking points to his total.
Sinner was absent from the ATP Tour this time last year as he was serving a doping ban and that is the primary reason why he has closed the rankings back on Alcaraz in such a short period of time.
While Alcaraz is defending points each week, Sinner is operating without anything on his record from this time last year and that means he is presented with huge opportunities to reclaim the No 1 rankings.
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So while Alcaraz is defending 1,000 points in Monte Carlo next week, Sinner has zero points on his record from this event in 2025.
It means that if Sinner wins the first clay court Masters 1000 event of the year, he will become world No 1 the following Monday.
If Sinner reaches the semi-finals and Alcaraz exits before the quarter-finals, Sinner will shoot back to the top of the rankings.
If Sinner reaches the final and Alcaraz does not, the Italian will also move ahead.
Alcaraz will remain world No 1 after the tournament if those three scenarios are not met by Sinner.
The Spaniard, who is top seed in Monte Carlo, will start a 66th week as world No 1 on Monday, equalling the number of weeks Sinner has been at the top of the list.
Yet Monte Carlo could be a pivotal week in how their rankings battle will evolve and Sinner is relishing the battle.
“I know the position, the situation and the scenarios, but it’s not one tournament that will define who’s No 1 or No 2,” said Sinner.
“It’s a tournament that I love to play and I’m happy to be here. I will try to win as many matches as possible but at the same time, there are even more tournaments coming up.
“When you are a top player, you aim to win trophies. The points are not important, in a way.”
Sinner also suggested he is in a confident mood heading into Monte Carlo after his big wins in the ‘Sunshine Double’ events at Indian Wells and Miami.
“We did a lot of work in Indian Wells, and obviously the work continues,” added Sinner.
“It’s a different surface, we all know that it’s a bit more physical on clay, but last year I played some good tennis on this surface, so let’s see what’s coming this year.
“I feel like it helped me a lot in Indian Wells to get through very long sessions under the heat.
“I also didn’t struggle at the [2025] US Open in that regard, but more questions are going to be answered on this surface because matches might be a little bit longer.
“I personally like to play on clay. It’s not my favourite surface, but I do believe that I can play some good tennis too.”
Even if Sinner fails to claim the world No 1 ranking in Monte Carlo, he will have another clear run at Alcaraz in the Madrid Open, another Masters 1000 event he missed last year due to his suspension.
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