For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the Tour heads up the coast to Hilton Head Island for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town.
This Week: RBC Heritage
- Date: April 16-19, 2026
- Location: Hilton Head Island, South Carolina
- Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
- How to watch: CBS, Golf Channel, ESPN+
- Purse: $20,000,000
- Defending champ: Justin Thomas
Which skills the course rewards
The RBC Heritage has been played after the Masters in April nearly every year since 1983. Playing as a par 71 at around 7,100 yards, Harbour Town is a classical design by Pete Dye in 1967 with tree-lined fairways and tiny greens.
Once one of the weakest fields on the PGA Tour with top players resting after Augusta, the RBC Heritage is now a signature event with a $20 million purse and no cut, featuring most of the world’s top players.
Harbour Town is a shorter course in yardage, but actually doesn’t play as short as it seems due to so many forced layups. But any player who is able to force added distance down the fairway will be rewarded with the benefit of a shorter club into the tiny, dome-shaped greens at the Dye design.
When looking at recent winners, it’s clear that Harbour Town favors steady ball-strikers who are good around the greens. Case in point: 2025 winner Justin Thomas.
Scrambling is important this week as players hit under 60 percent of the greens at Harbour Town compared to around 65 percent at an average Tour event.
Putting is not the huge factor at Harbour Town that many people think it is. Shorter courses like this are often misconstrued as putting contests, but it’s actually a track you can win at without putting too well.
I like to take a look at Pete Dye history for the field. Dye courses are a tricky type of challenge, and it’s been obvious for decades now that some players just catch on to the look of his venues and play well across most of the tournaments on them.
How the model works
The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 20% SG: Approach, 15% SG: Off the Tee, 15% SG: Around the Green, 10% SG: Putting (Bermuda), 10% Par 4: 401-450 yards, 10% SG: Total (Pete Dye), 10% scoring opportunities (100-150 yards), 5% SG: Total and 5% GIR%.
Power rankings
(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)
10. Jordan Spieth (+3600, +580, +260)
Model rank: 14th
It’s time to get fooled by Spieth again. He managed a quiet T12 at Augusta last week despite losing nearly two strokes on the greens. But the irons continue to be in great form, and this is a place where Spieth won in 2022 (despite losing strokes putting) and finished 2nd in 2023. He’s right there if he can figure out the flat stick. Ranks 4th in SG: APP.
9. Ryo Hisatsune (+9000, +1200, +500)
Model rank: 13th
I’ll keep beating the drum for Ryo, who sits 22nd in the FedExCup and may have been the most deserving player not in the field at the Masters. The strong finishes continue to pile up, and he played well here last year as a debutant with less form, finishing with a T18. There aren’t many hitting it better than him right now. Ranks 2nd in GIR%.
8. Xander Schauffele (+1450, +265, +126)
Model rank: 9th
Not my favorite course fit, but Schauffele has still been 4th here before and has posted decent results the last two years. He was in the mix at Augusta over the weekend but struggled on and around the greens, which has been the theme this year despite wonderful ball striking. Ranks 2nd in SG: APP.
7. Tommy Fleetwood (+1750, +305, +142)
Model rank: 6th
Fleetwood had a complete implosion over the weekend at the Masters after entering Saturday in T4. I won’t overthink it for this tournament. He was 7th here last year and has a great eye for Pete Dye courses overall. Tommy continues to have one of the most balanced games in golf. Ranks 7th in SG: ARG.
6. Patrick Cantlay (+2400, +405, +186)
Model rank: 10th
Things might finally be turning around for Cantlay right before a tournament that he has somehow never won. Since 2017, he has finishes of T3, T7, T3, MC, 2nd, 3rd, T3 and T13 at Harbour Town. This just seems to be his happy place. Cantlay finished 12th at the Masters while flashing some great iron play and was also T7 at the Valspar. Ranks 10th in SG: ARG.
5. Russell Henley (+1700, +295, +136)
Model rank: 5th
Henley had a real chance to win the Masters. Making the turn in 2nd at 10-under, he missed so many good looks at birdie in the coming holes before settling for T3. Henley led the field in SG: Approach and will head to one of the best course fits on Tour for him, where he finished T8 last year. Ranks 9th in SG: P (Bermuda).
4. Ludvig Aberg (+2100, +375, +176)
Model rank: 2nd
That was a disappointing Masters for Aberg, who had some great moments but made far too many mistakes on and around the greens. It feels like he lacks some of the artistry needed with the short game there, but that won’t be a problem at Harbour Town, where Aberg finished T10 as a debutant in 2024. He’s hitting it extremely well right now and could surely be a factor this week. Ranks 10th in SG: APP.
3. Cameron Young (+1750, +320, +152)
Model rank: 3rd
Young keeps on rolling. In his first start since The Players win, he nearly took home the green jacket in an incredible week despite starting terribly on Thursday. I’ll be interested to see how he responds after the close call and whether this level is sustainable throughout the year. Since finishing T3 at Harbour Town in his first start in 2022, he has struggled heavily. Ranks 1st in SG: OTT.
2. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600, +295, +138)
Model rank: 1st
It wasn’t to be for Fitzpatrick last week at the Masters, but he still managed a solid T18 finish despite the putter completely letting him down. That seems to be the only thing that is holding back the Englishman right now from going on a tear, but Bermuda greens are his favorite. He won this tournament in 2023 and should be a favorite to do it again with his current form. Ranks 6th in SG: APP.
1. Scottie Scheffler (+370, -122, -250)
Model rank: 4th
What could have been for Scheffler at the Masters, where he gave 12 strokes to Rory McIlroy entering the weekend and shot 65-68 to lose by 1. He looked like the World No. 1 again with a fantastic week with the irons, and he’s finished T11, 1st, T8 in three trips to Harbour Town. There could be a letdown factor this week after the close call, but he’s generally not one to dwell on the past. Ranks 1st in SG: ARG.
Top Photo Caption: The 18th hole at Harbour Town is one of the most recognizable on Tour. (GETTY IMAGES/Keyur Khamar)