The Maple Leafs have streamlined their efficiency in disappointing fans this season and with 2025-26 in the rearview mirror and the playoffs beginning tonight without them, it seems like as a good a time as any to look forward not backward when it comes to the Leafs.
Mission 41.8% accomplished
As things sit today the Maple Leafs will own their 2026 first round draft pick. That’s not great and with only being one point up over the Rangers, instinctively you want to blame the Leafs for pushing into overtime against the Ducks and Kings as difference makers which could have pushed their odds of retaining their draft pick up to 79.2%, but this was a team that went 2-7-1 in their last ten games, they did about all you could of them to tank in the standings. It’s the one thing that you can’t fault them for this season.
May 5th will be a big day and along with whatever day the Maple Leafs announce their new General Manager, it will be one of the most significant moments in the offseason. Holding off until that date before becoming overly invested in either the Gavin McKenna vs. Ivar Stenberg debate or in making a case for Caleb Malhotra is probably for the best.
And it also seems important to remember that no matter what happens, the Maple Leafs are still likely going to lose two very good first round picks in the next two years for the priveledge of having Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo in their lineup. I’m not sure many teams could screw up this badly.
What if Berube gets one more year
Through the combination of penny pinching and the generally risk adverse approach hockey bosses take to running their teams, the possibility of Craig Berube being behind the bench next season is a realistic one for the Maple Leafs. It might simply come down to how long it takes the club to find a General Manager and the best options for replacing Craig Berube could be gone. We’ve already seen Pete DeBoer come off the market, and in the coaching shuffle that will likely take place in the coming days, someone will likely scoop up Bruce Cassidy. The Leafs don’t want to be left with nothing more than Patrick Roy to go with and if they need to punt the coaching decision to next season (likely the wrong decision no matter what) it’s likely Berube won’t be given a lot of slack.
That said, if Berube is back, there are certainly some Leafs that need to go and Morgan Rielly is at the top of the list. Part of me wonders if the Maple Leafs are just going to dangle the idea of Berube returning long enough that they can push Rielly into waiving his no movement clause and choosing a few teams that he’d be willing to go to. And while prioritizing Rielly’s departure or not at least having some curiosity regarding how he’d do in a post Berube/Mike Van Ryn environment, we should all have enough evidence that Rielly and Berube isn’t going to work and if there is a possibility that Berube is the coach, Rielly shouldn’t be on the blueline.
In addition to Morgan Rielly, Max Domi, Dakota Joshua, Nick Robertson and Brandon Carlo are all examples of players that no one should need to see more of under Craig Berube. They haven’t worked well enough for the Maple Leafs to not want to move on from them. Carlo being the priority there and in what will surely be another lacklustre free agency period, all of these players have the ability to outperform more expensive options. Carlo is the only one that the Maple Leafs really need to prioritize a maximum return on.
Cashing out
The ideal time to cash out on Oliver Ekman-Larsson was at the trade deadline. The next best time is now. Ekman-Larsson is perhaps the only player that is universal to the situation where it doesn’t matter who the GM is or who the Coach is, or whether the Maple Leafs are rebuilding or retooling that needs to be on the way out so they can maximize his value. At best you could argue that in the second half of the season Matias Maccelli might have also played his way into being an asset that the Leafs can cash out on as well.
The rest of the group tends to fall into the limbo of who the coach will be and what direction the GM is wanting to go in.
If the Maple Leafs are retooling, Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev are staying put. If it’s a rebuild they should be some of the first players the Maple Leafs shop.
The goaltenders are also in retooling vs rebuild purgatory. Given the limited assets and Hildeby functioning well for the Maple Leafs in his limited use last season, one should go regardless, but if this is a rebuild, cashing out on both might make sense.
The trio of Matthews, Nylander, and Knies are understandably a bigger discussion, even if it is a rebuild. Knies is young enough that he could be a centerpiece of a rebuild and Nylander might be the right guy to usher in the next group of Maple Leafs as well. In contrast, if Matthews is thinking of leaving in a couple of years, cashing out on him might be the right call if it is a retool or a rebuild.