The NBA playoffs continue on Sunday with Game 1 between the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder at 3:30 pm ET on ABC. Oklahoma City is the top seed in the Western Conference after compiling an NBA-best 64-18 record. Phoenix snagged the eighth and final seed by beating Golden State in the play-in tournament on Friday.
Let’s dive into my Suns vs. Thunder Game 1 prediction.
Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder odds
Money line: Suns +730 / Thunder -1150
Spread: Suns +14 (-108) / Thunder -14 (-112)
Total: Over 215.5 (-105) / Under 215.5 (-115)
Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder best bet: Over 215.5 (-105)
These two teams squared off five times during the regular season (the normal four in addition to an NBA Cup quarterfinal showdown). On three of the five occasions, the winning team scored at least 135 points. Another matchup — the first one of the season — resulted in a 123-119 OKC win. Just one of the five encounters produced fewer than 227 points (a 108-105 Phoenix victory on January 4). Oklahoma City may feature the best scoring defense in the Western Conference, but its games are still averaging 226.9 points; Phoenix is not too far behind in that metric at 223.7 ppg.
Although the Suns bring a relatively slow pace of play to the table, that’s not really a strategy that can be employed against the Thunder. After all, no one can argue that the Suns have an advantage in half-court sets against OKC’s defense. Devin Booker and company will surely push the pace every now and then in an effort to get easier buckets in transition. Speaking of Booker, he did not do much in the play-in tournament — but he scored at least 30 points in five of his last six regular-season games. Phoenix’s star guard got plenty of help in the play-in from Jalen Green, who torched Portland for 35 points and Golden State for 36.
The over is 4-2 in the Suns’ last six road outings and 6-1 in their last seven games against Oklahoma City. It is also 8-2 in the Thunder’s last 10 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 at home. The head-to-head meetings in the regular season were mostly high-scoring affairs, and more of the same can be expected on Sunday.