With three weeks of clay action complete now, it’s time for an early chat about what we know so far about the 2026 clay season. Heading into this swing, I put together ATP and WTA clay power rankings. Have those held up? Who are the big movers? What does all of this mean for the upcoming Masters and Roland-Garros? Read on as I dig into what the first three weeks of clay have taught us.
- Sinner has edged ahead of Alcaraz
Coming into this clay swing, there was a feeling that the rivalry at the top of men’s tennis between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner was hanging in the balance.
Alcaraz dominated the early section of the calendar (16-match win streak encompassing the Australian Open and Rotterdam titles), then Sinner bit back by sweeping the Sunshine Double for a 12-match streak of his own. Not only was the world No 1 ranking up for grabs at Monte-Carlo, but the two hadn’t met yet in 2026.
That’s changed now. Sinner has remained undefeated, convincingly beating Alcaraz in the Monte-Carlo final to extend his win streak to 17 matches. The title was his first big one on clay, and made him just the second man to win Indian Wells, Miami and Monte-Carlo in the same season.
But it’s not just the Monte-Carlo results that have swung things in Sinner’s favor. Alcaraz has since pulled up with a wrist injury, withdrawing from Barcelona after one match and pulling out of the upcoming Masters in Madrid too.
Alcaraz was No 1 on my power rankings heading into this swing. However, his lack of health plus Sinner’s clear step up on clay have shifted this for me. Tennis betting sites now have the Italian as favorite to win the French Open, and I agree.
- Swiatek’s issues remain
The big question heading into the 2026 clay swing for Iga Swiatek was whether her poor form on the dirt last season was a one-off, or a sign of things to come.
It looks like the latter, with the Pole losing in the Stuttgart quarter-finals to Mirra Andreeva last week. It wasn’t just the fact that she took a clay loss – which used to be few and far between – but the manner in which she lost. Again, she looked rushed and was spraying errors in a very un-Swiatek like way (but very on brand for how she’s been the past year).
There was reason to believe we’d see a different Swiatek this swing, given she’d switched up coaches and done some extensive work with Rafael Nadal. But no – her old issues haven’t just evaporated.
That doesn’t mean she’s a bad player, and I’m not throwing out my French Open prediction yet. Just that we’re not going to see a change overnight.
- Tsitsipas is cooked
I am ready to give up on Tsitsipas, however. Much like Swiatek, last year was one of the Greek’s worst clay seasons in well over half a decade. He’s been on the decline more broadly for the last two years, but I kept him in my clay power rankings out of respect for his body of work.
Opening losses to Francisco Cerundolo and Fabian Marozsan across Monte-Carlo and Munich have thrown out any kind of benefit of the doubt for Tsitsipas now. He’s down to world No 85 in the live rankings and looks like a lost cause – unless he can go back to the well, find some reason for playing tennis, and snap out of it.
Right now, he just looks like someone who’s got a comfortable life and is more interested in Tweeting about philosophy than working hard.
- Fils is the new prince
For years, Tsitsipas occupied the tier two level on clay. It seems Arthur Fils has now stepped up to that role.
The Frenchman carried his searing form onto the clay, beating Lorenzo Musetti, Rafael Jodar and Andrey Rublev en route to the Barcelona title. Fils is now 18-5 since returning from a nine-month layoff to treat a back injury. He’s gone 16-3 since the start of Doha, losing only to Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Jiri Lehecka.
On clay, he’s looked even more dangerous, with his beefy ground strokes getting good penetration and there being plenty of time for him to run around on the forehand. His general athleticism on defense is a sight to behold too.
The Barcelona title was his fourth overall and third on clay, firmly shifting him up the list of favorites heading into the remainder of the clay season.
- Rybakina is an all-surface threat
Elena Rybakina has been the hottest thing on the WTA Tour the past six months and the Kazakh proved last week that this wasn’t just a hardcourt phenomenon.
Her flat shots and big serve held up well in Stuttgart, where she beat Andreeva and Karolina Muchova in straight sets to claim the title. This was her fifth clay title and second in Stuttgart.
My main argument for not having her higher than No 4 in my WTA clay power rankings was her lack of clay credentials. But with Swiatek struggling and Coco Gauff also losing early in Stuttgart, it’s hard to not see Rybakina as the No 2 on all surfaces at the moment.
- Andreeva’s back
Andreeva barely scraped her way into this year’s clay power rankings, coming in at No 9 due to a weak resume and some patchy form in 2026.
However, she’s had a resurgence already and proven that a change in surface might be just what she needs to start notching results. The teen won the Linz Open then upset Swiatek (and took care of Jelena Ostapenko too) in Stuttgart en route to the semi-finals, where she lost to Rybakina.
She’s always technically had the game for clay, and it looks like she’s grown into herself just that little bit more where she can be a real threat for the big titles on this surface.
- There’s another Spanish teen on the ATP Tour
First Nadal, then Alcaraz… And now Rafael Jodar? There’s something about Spanish teens and clay that the ATP Tour just can’t shake, and the last three weeks have just seen the emergence of another.
Tennis aficionados will be no strangers to Jodar, with the teen making the NextGen Finals late last year. I said in my preview of the Australian Open qualifiers in January that he was playing like a top-50 player (despite being ranked well outside the world’s top 150), and now results have caught up to Jodar’s level.
The 19 year old is now up to No 38 in the live rankings after winning eight straight matches on clay, taking out his maiden ATP title in Marrakech before making the semi-finals of Barcelona. Across this run, he took out the likes of Tomas Machac, Jaume Munar and Cameron Norrie, thrashing the latter two in one-sided, straight-set affairs.
He’s unlikely to threaten across any of the major events the next six weeks, but remember the name, as Jodar looks like a genuine prospect for the future.
- The ATP top 10 will look different in May
Speaking of the future, it’s hard to imagine the ATP top 10 looking the same on the other side of the French Open. Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti are all struggling with some form of injury or post-injury issues. Alex de Minaur is in a slump, Medvedev seems to have returned to his usual clay-hating self, and Alexander Bublik has cooled off significantly.
There are a lot of events and points to come between now and the end of May, but it’s entirely possible that we see the likes of Fils, Flavio Cobolli, Jiri Lehecka and Tommy Paul make a push into the top 10, while a handful of the incumbents drop out.
On the WTA side, things feel a lot more stable. Victoria Mboko and Jasmine Paolini are the two who feel in danger of slipping, with the former and unknown quantity and the latter continuing her poor form so far in 2026.
Great time to bet on the 2026 French Open
For those who are interested in betting on tennis, the next few days are a great window to get some early bets in on the 2026 French Open.
Tennis betting odds haven’t shifted much following these smaller, early clay results, so if the trends above hold, there’s some value to be had. Fils, for example, still pays the same as Medvedev to win Roland-Garros, and is well behind the likes of Draper and Ruud, despite his trajectory looking far more positive.
Once results start to drop from Madrid and then Rome, major tennis bookmakers will adjust and the market will more accurately reflect reality.
So if you’ve got a hunch, or agree with some of the takeaways above, make it count now. The best platforms will have markets available not just on the winner, but on certain players to make the final etc, which is great for some of the darker horse candidates we’ve talked about.