Following Thursday night’s 3–1 victory over the Los Angeles Kings, the Calgary Flames will enter the draft lottery with the fourth-best odds. The win took them back above the New York Rangers in the standings. They had briefly moved to third-best odds after NYR beat Tampa Bay Lightning 4–2 the night before.
The Flames are guaranteed to pick sixth, at worst, but will hope to draft first or second overall. Recent history, however, suggests the odds rarely equate to success in the lottery, often falling.
It’s been more than 20 years since the team with the fourth-best odds won the lottery, that being the Florida Panthers in 2003. They had traded their pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins, who used it to draft future Hall-of-Fame goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury.
Who Could Be Available at Fourth?
The current consensus is that defenceman Keaton Verhoeff will be drafted fourth. Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, and Chase Reid are likely to go before him. Verheoff has plenty of upside, with his size and two-way play key contributors to his impressive displays. He would be a welcome addition to a defence that is rarely solid, although most Flames fans will hope for an attacking talent.
The odds of the Flames drafting below fourth are relatively low, but recent history indicates an opposite trend.
If the Flames do have similar luck, missing out on the very top picks, there are some excellent prospects projected to be available at that time, including Caleb Malhotra (C), Carson Carels (LHD), and Daxon Randolph (RHD). They are all projected just ahead of Tynan Lawrence (C) and Viggo Björck (C/RW), the latter of whom has been generating plenty of interest amongst Flames fans recently.
But what are the chances of them missing out on drafting fourth?
Just How Lucky/Unlucky Is Fourth-Best Odds?
To give any indication of luck and impact, here is what happened to the last five teams that entered the draft lottery with the fourth-best odds. Here, I look at what happened to that team, as well as who they drafted.
2025 – Philadelphia Flyers – Entered 4th, Drafted 6th – Porter Martone (RW)
Martone has made cameo appearances for the Flyers this season, with 10 points. He has been compared to Sean Couturier, although he is still developing, having not made the full step up yet.
2024 – Columbus Blue Jackets – Entered 4th, Drafted 4th – Cayden Lindstrom (C)
An early career impacted by injury, Lindstrom has yet to make his debut for the Blue Jackets, but that should come next season after following his season with the Medicine Hat Tigers alongside this year’s projected number one pick, Gavin McKenna.
2023 – San Jose Sharks – Entered 4th, Drafted 4th – Will Smith (C)
Arguably the most impressive out of those drafted by the team with fourth-best odds in recent years. Smith has already established himself as part of a young and impressive forward line alongside Macklin Celebrini.
In his two full seasons at the NHL level, he has posted figures of 45 and 59 points, respectively, impressive for a rookie.
2022 – Philadelphia Flyers – Entered 4th, Drafted 5th – Cutter Gauthier (LW)
Traded to the Ducks, Gauthier has become a reliable top-six forward for the Anaheim Ducks, scoring regularly from the wing.
Like Smith, he has posted promising numbers in his two full seasons, totalling 44 points in his first, and 69 in his second.
2021 – Columbus Blue Jackets – Entered 4th, Drafted 5th – Kent Johnson (C/LW)
Johnson is a somewhat solid centre, but hasn’t lived up to his draft position. His numbers for the Jackets have been mediocre in the eyes of many. His 57 points in 2024–25 remain his highest total to date, having only gained 22 in this recently finished season.
Summary of Flames Prospects at Fourth-Best
Overall, it’s a mixed bag. The Flames will hope to land a prospect with the impact of a Will Smith. If they stay at fourth, it will be their joint-highest draft pick in franchise history.
Sam Bennett is still the highest-drafted player by the Flames. He often flattered to deceive in Calgary, with a high of 36 points from 77 games in 2015–16. His career has kicked on after being traded to the Florida Panthers in 2020–21, helping them reach three Stanley Cup finals in a row, winning two of them, and representing Canada at the Olympics a few months ago.
If the Flames do stay in fourth, would Verhoeff fit in Calgary, or should the Flames draft a forward? It’s a question that Craig Conroy will need an answer to as soon as the lottery happens.
