| 2:00 |
: Hello everybody |
| 2:00 |
: Couple list updates… KCR is in editorial as we speak and is going live tomorrow.
|
| 2:01 |
: Eric’s rundown of the Nats should also go this week
|
| 2:01 |
: I will be picking up either Padres or Giants right after that. |
| 2:02 |
: We will also have a weather report on some of the 50 FV guys coming out soon.
|
| 2:03 |
: Made sense to take a look at it because we’re going to have a couple new 50’s on the lists this week
|
| 2:03 |
: We’ll see if you guys can guess who
|
| 2:03 |
: Any concern with Michael Arroyo’s slow start? Strikeouts are way up and walks are down.
|
| 2:03 |
: No |
| 2:04 |
: It’s April, it’s cold. Strikeouts are up across the board this time of year
|
| 2:04 |
: Arroyo himself had a 33% whiff rate through nine games in High-A last year. It worked itself out.
|
| 2:04 |
: AJ Ewing… how does the profile play in the bigs? Future all star? |
| 2:04 |
: Chance to start, projects as a fourth outfielder.
|
| 2:06 |
: Any early players breaking out in the Blue Jays system?
|
| 2:06 |
: I don’t know about breaking out, but I think you have to be happy with Jojo’s start… Maroudis getting off the mat is a great development. |
| 2:07 |
: Tigers promoting Rainer to West Michigan despite a .167 BA & 40+% K rate. Understood they’re trying to make room for Yost, but, seems like Rainer is not ready for High A either?
|
| 2:07 |
: I was a little surprised as well. I’m not worried about him, but if nothing else it seems like he still has some rust to knock off.
|
| 2:08 |
: How does Zion Rose compare to Dylan Crews or Wyatt Langford going into the draft? |
| 2:08 |
: Different tier of amateur prospects
|
| 2:08 |
: Should somebody not the Yankees (the Rockies?) give Spencer jones a season in the majors to see if his power can stay a tick ahead of his K rate?
|
| 2:09 |
: Maybe it was just posturing, but in talking with a Yankees scout around the deadline last year, I got the impression that the price for Jones was going to be sky high. |
| 2:10 |
: He’s the kind of player where it wouldn’t surprise me if the team that has him just values him more than everybody else
|
| 2:10 |
: Interesting to look at DeLauter go ice cold. Based on the scouting I assumed it would mean he’s running a sky high GB rate, but all his stats look encouraging. Anything up with him that I am missing or is this just a run of the mill slump
|
| 2:10 |
: He’s fine, got robbed a couple times in there. |
| 2:10 |
: 13% strikeout rate for his kind of power is nutty
|
| 2:12 |
: After missing the start to the year, Ching-Hsien Ko has come back with 2 HRs and a double in 4 games in Single-A. Obviously way too early to draw any significant conclusions from, but any idea if he has had a swing tweak to lift the ball more? That compared to 4 HRs in 85 games seems at least potentially notable
|
| 2:12 |
: Our video tool runs on a frustrating lag — I don’t get to see stuff for like a week — so I don’t have a good way of looking right now. I’m as curious as you are, check back next week and I’ll answer.
|
| 2:12 |
: Not a question but just a comment – FG prospect reports have always been my favorites among public-facing outlets but it seems like you guys have managed to pick up the speed a tick without any loss of quality this year, and it’s awesome to see.
|
| 2:13 |
: Thank you, much appreciated. I’m sure we’d all like for the lists to be done by now but we’re doing our best. Goal is for 2027 lists to be out before the season, we should have the resources in place to do it.
|
| 2:14 |
: What more does Jesus Made have to prove at AA, and will Cooper Pratt and Jett Williams keep him blocked there?
|
| 2:15 |
: It’s 20 games. Let’s see him deal with the natural ebbs and flows at the level for a little while.
|
| 2:15 |
: thoughts on Juan Sanchez skipping the complex?
|
| 2:16 |
: exciting. Big, big jump from the DSL to A-ball. Stay patient with him if he struggles out of the gate, or even for most of the year.
|
| 2:16 |
: I know Lombard is over at 3rd in deference to Volpe’s rehab, but do you think the Yankees are looking at him closely there as a solution to their McMahon problem this year?
|
| 2:17 |
: My instinct is that while you can’t ever rule it out, Lombard as NYY 3B in 2026 is unlikely.
|
| 2:18 |
: How is Jose Ramirez so mobile, strong, and durable? One of the things I think Future Value nailed was the importance of strength and conditioning in the latest versions of MLB
|
| 2:18 |
: A good reminder that athletes come in different shapes and sizes. If ever a guy deserved the statue while he was still in uniform…
|
| 2:19 |
: how impressive is Nelson Rada’s .302/.410/.413 slash line in AAA considering hes 20? sneaky upside?
|
| 2:19 |
: He’s very advanced for his age. Has a shot to be a regular, will need to max out on the hit tool because there’s probably not a lot of pop coming.
|
| 2:19 |
: do you ever get homesick while scouting?
|
| 2:20 |
: The natural balance of my life was to get antsy to get out on the road and to gradually miss the family more and more until I got back. An odd equilibrium
|
| 2:20 |
: Jhonny Level is smoking A ball right now. Obviously high BABIP, what looks good and what looks unsustainable (outside BABIP and SSS)?
|
| 2:22 |
: He’s the kind of mature player who you’d hope would be able to take to A-ball well. Good enough to hit the pitching, advanced enough to spit on a lot of the wild guys endemic to the level. Obviously the numbers are ridiculous right now, but this is what we were hoping to see.
|
| 2:22 |
: Waldschmidt up in next few weeks? Not sure if you like comps but what can you see as his outcome when up?
|
| 2:24 |
: Not far away now. 25 homer regular in a corner, solid defense there.
|
| 2:24 |
: I don’t have a great comp in mind, but if you just want a surface stat idea… what if Ian Happ with a better glove?
|
| 2:25 |
: I’m sure it’s more complicated than this, but, in terms of exit velocity, what rates are you looking at relative to power grades? What’s the max exit velo look like to a 50 verses a 60?
|
| 2:26 |
: I look at average EV, 90th percentile, and maxes. Maxes can be tricky, I don’t always trust them, there are some obvious inaccuracies, but at times they can be helpful and show the range of a player’s abilities.
|
| 2:26 |
: Translating what guys are doing now to a future power grade is more art than science.
|
| 2:27 |
: Sometimes with, like, Tommy Troy you have a relatively mature player who is right on the 45/50 line and you just round up.
|
| 2:27 |
: For guys in the DSL there’s a lot more guesswork
|
| 2:28 |
: I don’t expect an answer, but my guess is Fitz-Gerald for one of the new 50s.
|
| 2:28 |
: Good guess but unless Eric has a surprise for me as well, no
|
| 2:28 |
: Their positive future outlook has been brewing for a while, but is the A’s turnaround a little surprising given they bungled almost all of their ’22 teardown trades?
|
| 2:29 |
: I’m more of the mind of “think of how far along this would be if they hadn’t got tunnel vision on Esteury Ruiz”
|
| 2:29 |
: Jacob Reimer is off to a slow start, aside from finding a position that will open up, what does he need to do to make another step? Does he have 50+ in him?
|
| 2:29 |
: I don’t think we’ll ever 50+ him, we were split on the 50 as is.
|
| 2:30 |
: Do you think Miguel Mendez can help this season?
|
| 2:30 |
: Might be their best trade chip
|
| 2:30 |
: Am I a new 50?
|
| 2:30 |
: 
|
| 2:31 |
: bat speed equal is a shorter swing necessarily better?
|
| 2:31 |
: We should talk about bat speed for a sec.
|
| 2:31 |
: The publicly available metrics on bat speed are calculated differently than how scouts have traditionally evaluated and described bat speed
|
| 2:31 |
: The metrics you see on Savant are more like bat velocity
|
| 2:32 |
: And the old school bat speed is like 85% time and 15% velocity
|
| 2:32 |
: To answer what I think you’re getting at: If bat velocities are equal and you know no other information, you would rather have the shorter swing, yes
|
| 2:33 |
: Trey Gregory-Alford the most underrated RHP in MiLB?
|
| 2:33 |
: He’s good but there are undoubtedly future No. 3/4’s that we’ve yet to identify as such; TGA is at least a pick to click
|
| 2:33 |
: Luke Stevenson is off to a fast start in Everett . Have you seen him like this year and what does he need to do to climb into the 50 tier for you>
|
| 2:34 |
: He’s doing well, good candidate to climb if he can keep mashing strikes. Want a little longer to evaluate the glove, hoping I can get out tonight and see him again. I’ll catch him tomorrow and Thursday at the very least
|
| 2:34 |
: re: the Ian Happ comp. He’s a divisive player among Cubs fans, and I can never figure out why. He’s a 3-4 win player signed to a fair deal. He’s a home-grown success story, and yet a segment of the fanbase seem to be angry that he’s…not Juan Soto? I guess? No real question, just wondering why some players have that effect on their team’s fans. Joey Votto is probably the poster child for that type, where they’re good players (or near-HoF players in Votto’s case) but a vocal segment of the population wants them to be something they aren’t.
|
| 2:35 |
: Some people are looking to be upset/angry, some have unrealistic expectations. That’s life.
|
| 2:35 |
: Last week Eric shared a livestream link to the Phillies FCL exhibition games. Are there other teams that publicly stream complex league games?
|
| 2:36 |
: Yes, from my cursory looks it seems like there are more at the DSL level than ACL/FCL. But some of both.
|
| 2:36 |
: Just search youtube, they’ll pop up
|
| 2:36 |
: Cam Caminiti one of the new 50’s?
|
| 2:36 |
: He probably will be sooner rather than later, but the two in question are on one of the lists coming this week
|
| 2:36 |
: Who are your ROY picks after seeing how the youngsters have fared to start the season?
|
| 2:36 |
: McGonigle and McLean
|
| 2:37 |
: Hello Brendan. Does Carson Benge have a shot at making an impact this season like some of the other rookies have?
|
| 2:37 |
: Maybe in the second half. Thought putting him in the Opening Day lineup was aggressive.
|
| 2:37 |
: And with the way NYM’s season is going, this is an absolutely brutal environment to struggle in
|
| 2:38 |
: Re: the fun bat speed conversation – how important do you think “time in zone” is, compared to swing shortness and bat velocity?
|
| 2:38 |
: All else equal, it’s a good thing. Sliding scale with a guy’s hand eye coordination and a few other things.
|
| 2:39 |
: Where do you get MiL box scores from? MilB.com has a glitch where clicking on the box score link takes you to it’s homepage
|
| 2:39 |
: usually on the milb app on my phone as the last thing I do before I fall asleep.
|
| 2:40 |
: Is the Fangraph data on Walbert Urena correct? urena FA mph from 2022. -2022 was not Quite 92 MPH, and 2026 is 98.
|
| 2:40 |
: Can’t speak to the 2022 stuff, he was throwing gas by 2023 and has maintained that
|
| 2:41 |
: Should the Mets just let Nolan McLean play every position at once? I think it might fix it for them
|
| 2:41 |
: He’s gotta be the best wiffleball player on the team, right?
|
| 2:41 |
: What do you make of a player that is so clearly out of shape? (I’m thinking about Gabriel Davalillo) On one hand, he’s still super young and has time to remake his body. On the other hand, he already way out of shape this early in his career.
|
| 2:41 |
: Scary. Hitterish, but already tracking like a DH.
|
| 2:41 |
: Stay on the athletes, Brendan!
|
| 2:41 |
: Stay on the athletes, Dan.
|
| 2:42 |
: How fast is too fast to move Kendry Chourio?
|
| 2:42 |
:
|
| 2:42 |
: do you ever do work in non-english languages?
|
| 2:42 |
: I once tried to email a European scout in Italian; he did not respond.
|
| 2:43 |
: I need to learn Spanish.
|
| 2:43 |
: i really enjoyed the “how’s my driving” article from prospect week. do you have any similar reflections on strengths/weaknesses, big hits and big misses, etc?
|
| 2:43 |
: I wrote this for prospect week:
|
| 2:43 |
: I would love to do more like it, and probably will when we get lists done
|
| 2:43 |
: Watching the Dodgers-Rockies game last night, and Orel Hershisher was talking about Wrobleski’s approach and how he thought it was a lot better to start with just 2-maybe 3 pitches when you came into the league and really hone them (in part because with only a couple you would just naturally throw them more often than if you had a whole suite to throw) and only add pitches when the “league told you you needed to.” Do you think that’s valid? When you’re looking at pitching prospects are you looking more seriously at guys who are 2-3 pitch pitchers and succeeding more than guys that throw a lot of different pitches at an early age?
|
| 2:46 |
: Fascinating article idea. obviously everybody’s different and some guys are going to have the capacity to develop deeper arsenals earlier than others but I think he’s right that the league has a way of telling you that you need to add something
|
| 2:47 |
: One of the ways I matured as a scout in my time with PIT was realizing just how raw a guy’s arsenal was in the ACL or A-ball.
|
| 2:48 |
: Like, big leaguers completely overhaul their stuff sometimes. Go watch Logan Gilbert’s debut and Logan Gilbert now, they’re completely different guys.
|
| 2:48 |
: And it’s all the more extreme with an 18 year old on the complex.
|
| 2:48 |
: Down there, you’re looking for traits more than pitches, if that makes s ense |
| 2:49 |
: Jim Jarvis: what would it take to project him as a second division regular, something like 2-3 months of crushing AAA pitching? Or is the ceiling capped at useful bench piece?
|
| 2:51 |
: Less about statistical success, more about whether the swing and approach will work against big leaguers. Jarvis specifically is off to the kind of start that’s hard to ignore, but I don’t think the answer to your question is going to come from the numbers with him.
|
| 2:51 |
: What is the chance I turn into anything? I was a top five pick, but I can’t seem to make enough contact.
|
| 2:51 |
: I don’t think it’s going to work.
|
| 2:52 |
: Early noah shultz thoughts? I’m having a blast
|
| 2:53 |
: Yes, you can see how both breaking balls are going to miss bats. Needs to tighten up his locations but that’ll come with time. Really good body control for a guy with his size. Exciting pitching prospect.
|
| 2:53 |
: am I a gonna be a certified masher?
|
| 2:53 |
: Early returns are very promising. Good at bats last week against KC pitchers I was evaluating.
|
| 2:54 |
: Tate Southistene have more juice than anticipated?
|
| 2:54 |
: Not that I’ve seen yet
|
| 2:54 |
: We’re projecting above average, so that’s already plenty
|
| 2:54 |
: Far more encouraging is that his timing has been better and the strikeouts are at a tolerable level
|
| 2:54 |
: Good object lesson in not getting carried away with post-draft performance.
|
| 2:55 |
: Already downgrading Oppor? He’s been walking the park thru 3 starts
|
| 2:55 |
: We’re not dropping anybody off the list yet, though some guys will dip within their FV tier.
|
| 2:55 |
: It’s a weather report mostly, not a re-eval of the T100 guys
|
| 2:55 |
: We’ll do that soon too
|
| 2:55 |
: There is always so much to do
|
| 2:56 |
: How about my boy, eh?
|
| 2:56 |
: Gulp
|
| 2:57 |
: Any word on Davalan in the Dodger system? Go hogs!
|
| 2:57 |
: Tricky skill set to make work but even some of the more conservative scouts I’ve spoken with dig this guy.
|
| 2:57 |
: Well, if the Nats have a new 50 and it’s not Fitz-Gerald, my next guess would be Seaver King (but I’m now also growing worried they’re both on Royals).
|
| 2:58 |
: They’re both on the Royals
|
| 2:58 |
: Though Eric is also debating throwing a wrinkle and adding a third 50 on the WAS list
|
| 2:58 |
: The plot thickens…
|
| 2:58 |
: Ian Happ with a better glove is pretty funny when he’s won 4 straight gold gloves
|
| 2:59 |
: Embarrassing for me, I was just purely looking at the defensive numbers. Uh, forget I said the thing above.
|
| 2:59 |
: The point is Waldy is good
|
| 2:59 |
: Not great from Kayfus.. optimistic about his future?
|
| 2:59 |
: Solid bench bat
|
| 2:59 |
: How high are you on the big man Shores?
|
| 3:00 |
:
|
| 3:00 |
: No reason to change the valuation yet from this winter’s list
|
| 3:00 |
: Guys, guys, he’s already basically acknowledged it’s Hammond and Chourio moving to the 50’s. Read the chat!
Really fun exciting dudes. When do you expect the next movement in grades? |
| 3:01 |
: The next big one probably comes after the lists are done.
|
| 3:01 |
: There are a couple guys who may force our hand earlier than that.
|
| 3:02 |
: Luis Peña and Emil Morales are two that I plan to look at sooner rather than later, they’re sending strong signals that they’re better than where we ranked them.
|
| 3:02 |
: Do you think the Mariners have a lefty-heavy lineup problem going forward?
|
| 3:02 |
: I don’t know if it’s a problem. Among other things, in theory their three best guys can all hit right handed.
|
| 3:03 |
: Is my hype getting out of control?
|
| 3:03 |
: Based on the volume of chat questions, yes.
|
| 3:04 |
: Exciting player with some hit risk. Eric will have Nats out this week, I would check with him on his chat Friday if you still have further questions
|
| 3:04 |
: Thoughts on Wenninger? Well below Tong?
|
| 3:04 |
: Like him, less ceiling than Tong, reliable no. 4 projection.
|
| 3:05 |
: Caught one of his spring starts, everything seemed in order from what we wrote in the overview
|
| 3:05 |
: Might be a bit of a dumb question, but after the Elijah Green question I’m curious at what point do you end up going from “probably won’t pan out but worth taking a gamble on him to be safe” to “at this point it’s probably not even worth the effort”? Obviously Green isn’t exactly looking optimistic given that he’s run at least a 30% K rate at every level, and I know it’ll be a case-by-case basis, but curious to see where you set a dividing line.
|
| 3:07 |
: Good question, sliding scale as you’d imagine based on the tools and the investment. Teams are really, really reluctant of giving up early on guys they’ve sunk seven figures in. The A’s still have Robert Puason, for goodness sake. In general, there are enough orgs running around that you can justify keeping a guy with big tools around and hope that there’s a black swan event in his future that unlocks something.
|
| 3:07 |
: That may be less true if we chop another level
|
| 3:07 |
: Higher ceiling: Ryan Sloan or Seth Hernandez?
|
| 3:08 |
: Seth but can’t go wrong
|
| 3:08 |
: When do you think Cronin and Eldridge will be up.
|
| 3:08 |
: Which Cronin?
|
| 3:09 |
: Has the value of in-person scouting gone down with all of the tracking data we have now, or is there something that can’t be captured if you aren’t actually there (maybe even just the networking/consensus building with other scouts)?
|
| 3:11 |
: Has it gone down relative to 1995? Clearly. Has it gone down relative to 2015? In conjunction with video, a little bit, yeah.
|
| 3:11 |
: Is it still worth the squeeze? In my view, clearly yes.
|
| 3:12 |
: It’s really helpful, when projecting, to see athletes move in person.
|
| 3:12 |
: You can’t get that on video or in the data nearly as well as you can in the ballpark. Among other things, sometimes the things you need to see come in early work before the game.
|
| 3:12 |
: And that’s before we get into all the makeup and sourcing that’s helpful to do in the park as well
|
| 3:14 |
: Do you notice any difference in the Angel’s pitching phylosophy/ development?
|
| 3:15 |
: On my (long) list of things to monitor in more depth as we finish lists. Short answer: Nothing that has jumped out and whacked me in the face in the little I’ve observed. Please don’t take that to mean “no”
|
| 3:16 |
: Imagine Roki was any other prospect – would you be sending him down and/or converting to relief, or ride it out until your hand is forced?
|
| 3:17 |
: Variety of justifiable approaches. I don’t really know what to do with him.
|
| 3:17 |
: McLean over Stewart for NL ROY? Is there anything giving you pause about Stewart, or does McLean just look that good?
|
| 3:18 |
: The latter, could easily be Stewart or Weatherholt or somebody else
|
| 3:19 |
: Maybe no one-size-fits-all, but in a vacuum, is it easier to add bat speed or fastball velocity? Also, what is “preventing” ALL teams from having standard bat speed/pitching velo programs? It doesn’t seem like the methods are industry secrets
|
| 3:19 |
: Nothing preventing that
|
| 3:19 |
: Assuming you move Hammond into the 50 FV region and Cruz stays below that, what are the discussions like between you guys for both of those players on why/why not for the two of them. They seem somewhat similar, projectable infield prospects who have both performed with some hit tool questions.
|
| 3:22 |
: Basically, we have broad latitude to do whatever we want on our lists for any grades below a 50. When we hit the 50 FV mark, it’s a conversation where we want to come to some sort of consensus. So far, 90% of the time, when one of us has wanted to 50 a player the other hasn’t pushed back all that much. So it was with Hammond. I called Eric, talked through what I liked, he had a couple questions but was on board from the jump.
|
| 3:22 |
: they’re not prospects per se, but how would you rank the future value of the Rockies young (or low service time) OF, i.e. Freeman, Beck, Veen, Johnston? Corollary – can Moniak actually hit now, or is this some Coors magic?
|
| 3:24 |
: I’m still in on Beck as a regular, I might just have to go down with the ship on that one. Early returns on Veen 2.0 would have him underneath that
|
| 3:24 |
: Freeman/Johnston aren’t regulars
|
| 3:24 |
: Moniak can hit but it’s a bad approach. Flawed but useful player
|
| 3:24 |
: Someone once told me that he thought a front office made up mostly of coaches and scouts that had been given intensive training in data science, with a few senior data scientists to serve as guardrails and all the software engineers still in place, would arguably outperform existing front offices. I have no idea if that’s true but I thought it was an interesting take.
|
| 3:26 |
: The best front offices are good at blending analytical and observational evaluations. Put good in people in place for all your functions, and things will work out just fine.
|
| 3:26 |
: I’ve never been more wrong on a prospect than I was on Andy Pages – I thought he was TJ Maxx version of Teoscar Hernandez. Who are some prospects who you were wrong on (in the positive direction)?
|
| 3:27 |
: Ernie Clement
|
| 3:27 |
: Love Pena and Morales. Both running very high BABIPs in the early going. Does that give you pause, or is it more a product of how hard they’re stinging the ball?
|
| 3:27 |
: Good players do that at the lower levels
|
| 3:28 |
: I’m aware of it, but they’re popping for different reasons.
|
| 3:28 |
: Peña is making plays at short that he wasn’t making last year, for instance.
|
| 3:29 |
: He’s also walking more than he’s striking out at a level that he struggled at last season.
|
| 3:29 |
: And looks like he’s in fantastic shape
|
| 3:29 |
: If he was hitting .340 instead of .400 all of that would still be true
|
| 3:30 |
: Do you think some teams avoid fastball velo programs because they’re afraid of breaking pitchers? (I don’t have any insight, maybe everybody has velo programs and I just don’t know about it)
|
| 3:30 |
: Every team, to at least some extent, is actively trying to get (at least some of) their pitchers to throw harder.
|
| 3:31 |
: The way teams approach that is different and some are invariably more cautious than others
|
| 3:31 |
: Any tips on how you determine a good eye vs too much passivity at the plate with prospects?
|
| 3:31 |
: Their behavior with two strikes is a good statistical indicator.
|
| 3:31 |
: I also like seeing how they react to fastballs ahead in the count
|
| 3:32 |
: Are they letting stuff down the middle go by?
|
| 3:32 |
: Were they taking all the way on a fastball just out of the center of the plate, or were they tracking like they were ready to swing but maybe wanted it in a slightly different spot? \
|
| 3:33 |
: To build on the two strikes part: If someone’s chase rate is x% normally and x+20% with two strikes, that’s a pretty good indicator of passivity in my experience
|
| 3:33 |
: If it’s x+10%, that’s pretty standard
|
| 3:33 |
: That Moises Ballesteros. Pretty, pretty good, no?
|
| 3:34 |
: One of the things that jumped out in our evals this winter was that so many of his big league at bats last september came against monster arms.
|
| 3:34 |
: Which gave us a little more conviction in the bat.
|
| 3:34 |
: Any Royals you disappointed didn’t make the list?
|
| 3:34 |
: Well, I’m making the list… so no.
|
| 3:35 |
: Hasn’t Ian happ won 4 consecutive gold gloves?
|
| 3:35 |
: local prospect analyst fucks up
|
| 3:35 |
: I think Eric said he thinks the ability to spin a ball is an inherent trait. Do you believe that as well?
|
| 3:36 |
: We’ve seen some pronators turn into supinators, but I think even those guys don’t tend to develop huge spin?
|
| 3:37 |
: I think there are things you can do at the margins, and maybe in the odd case wholesale if someone just doesn’t know how to grip the ball well, but I think most improvements here are by degree rather than kind
|
| 3:38 |
: Speaking of Emil Morales, does he have the chance to be a 60-65 type prospect? What does he need to continue developing to elevate himself to that level?
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| 3:38 |
: My instinct is that that’s a little hot but a 60 FV isn’t out of the question some day..
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| 3:38 |
: Ronny Cruz says hi
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| 3:39 |
: He’s said it about 45 times this chat
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| 3:39 |
: How much does bat speed in your experience correlate with just pure physical strength and size? In other words, are we just finding another way to say “big guy good scrawny guy bad”?
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| 3:39 |
: Not exactly, there are wiry guys with really fast bats.
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| 3:40 |
: Small/narrow types less so
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| 3:40 |
: Piggybacking on the Emil Morales question, can you think of any guys you’ve evaluated so far this year and have rated as 40+ or less that have the potential to get to 60-65 in the future?
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| 3:41 |
: Some of the toolsier complex kids.
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| 3:41 |
: It’s an FV grade, so the guys who are really far away are capped pretty low on our lists, even if they’re toolsy and talented. Some of them will mature into 60 FV’s as they max out on our initial forecasts
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| 3:42 |
: Those are guys who, for a team, would have been given a more aggressive topline grade
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| 3:42 |
: If that makes sense
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| 3:42 |
: Any other Franklin Arias Q’s in the chat? What a start he’s off to…
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| 3:42 |
: A couple. I don’t have much to add, he’s just a really good player with a mature skill set performing at a high level
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| 3:43 |
: We’re glad we stuffed him
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| 3:43 |
: Is Felnin a 45 or 45+ these days? In your recent write up about him you mentioned his “at times lethargic motor.” Is that a comment / question on his effort or do you mean he like, needs to “build up steam” when he’s running?
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| 3:43 |
: Effort
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| 3:44 |
: Too early to move him. We knew he’d be volatile and we bought the ticket. Time to take the ride.
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| 3:45 |
: Can you dig in on Troy Johnston a bit more? Is there something in the profile you’re out on, or just the age factor? Between two small samples in 25 and 26, the offensive production has been dare I say good?
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| 3:47 |
: I’m skeptical of corner guys without big power as a class. With Johnston in particular, there aren’t a lot of walks coming with it, which makes him dependent on consistently squaring up the ball. He’s done it so far and has earned his production. I’m just skeptical that he’s going to maintain that for the long haul.
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| 3:48 |
: Is Bryce Harper elite again?
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| 3:48 |
: No but he seems to declining gently with the bat at least
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| 3:48 |
: When should I get called up? And am I the next poor mans Nick Kurtz?
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| 3:49 |
: My instinct would be to let Condon succeed for a while at AAA but the team should know more about where he’s at physically and mentally and are better positioned to determine how he’ll handle it if he starts slowly in Denver.
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| 3:49 |
: Obviously this would never happen but how would Seth Hernandez perform pitching once per week in the majors right now?
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| 3:49 |
: He’d get in trouble falling behind a lot
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| 3:50 |
: Did having access to PIT prospects’ PD plans give you a meaningfully better perspective when evaluating them instead of opposing teams’ prospects?
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| 3:51 |
: I never did any internal evaluations. In theory, it could have, but I also think it’s valuable for teams to have someone entirely disconnected from PD come in and give a frank assessment of how things are going
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| 3:52 |
: Your dev staff and coaches are constantly evaluating their players in that context
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| 3:52 |
: The scout should come in and evaluate how it’s all going at that precise moment in time
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| 3:52 |
: If that makes sense
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| 3:52 |
: Can I ask you this week about what prospects the Mets might be able to get when they decide to sell?
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| 3:52 |
: Still think the Mets are a playoff team
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| 3:53 |
: Less and less convinced by the day but
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| 3:53 |
: Given the logjam the dodgers have in their AAA outfield, does Davalan really get stuck at A+ all year? Seems like a guy that’s going to need to be challenged.
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| 3:54 |
: High pick college bat succeeding at A+… I’d be very surprised if he’s not in AA by mid-July at the latest
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| 3:54 |
: Deep cut I know, but what went wrong with the Royals high draft pick arms (Lacy, Rocker, Mozzicato, Kowar)?
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| 3:55 |
: Lacy got hurt and never threw strikes; Mozzicotto never gained velo and has remained CB dependent; Kowar also didn’t throw strikes; Rocker was not drafted by the Royals
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| 3:56 |
: Manuel Pena with 8 HR already (but only 1 walk) in AA. Anything to see here, or just a random guy on a hot streak in a hitter-friendly environment?
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| 3:56 |
: Think it’s the latter but I’m monitoring…
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| 3:57 |
: Think I’m going to shut it down here.
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| 3:57 |
: Thanks as always for showing up and hanging out.
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| 3:57 |
: We’ll do it again next week,
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