The Madrid Open main draw kicks off on Wednesday and it should be a great event even though many top players have withdrawn recently. The first round (playing on Wednesday and Thursday) offers opportunities for in-form players and rising stars to make quick statements on the fast clay courts. Here are six good matches to kick off the tournament, with our betting predictions for each.
Raphael Collignon vs Matteo Berrettini
Belgian qualifier Collignon faces an Italian that we know has an extremely high top level, but following all his injuries, we never really know when we’ll see it. Berrettini’s forehand and serve has been looking good, and should work well on these court conditions. He showed glimpses of his 2021 Wimbledon finalist form recently. Collignon won a Challenger title in Lyon this season, and is actually the slight favorite among bookies, but matching Berrettini here in Madrid this week will be tough I think. Tough match to predict.
Prediction: Berrettini 2-1
Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana
Czech Machac faces Argentine qualifier Comesana in what should be a straightforward opener. Machac took a set off Sinner at Monte Carlo recently and possesses good weapons including excellent touch and a deceptive serve. The 24-year-old Czech should thrive on Madrid’s fast surface with his aggressive returning and creative shotmaking. Comesana is a solid clay-courter but lacks the variety to disrupt Machac’s rhythm.
Best bet: Machac 2-0 | Machac -2.5 games @ 1.73 or -137.5
Botic van de Zandschulp vs Alexander Blockx
Rising Belgian star Blockx (image on top) gets a tough assignment against experienced Dutchman van de Zandschulp. The 20-year-old Blockx, ranked No. 69, has been exceptional on Challengers this year. Van de Zandschulp reached the US Open quarterfinals in 2021 but has struggled for consistency lately. This could be closer than the rankings suggest.
Best odds: Blockx 2-1 @ 3.75 or +275
Terence Atmane vs Miomir Kecmanovic
French qualifier Atmane takes on Serbian veteran Kecmanovic in a match between contrasting styles. Kecmanovic, a former top-30 player, brings consistent baseline depth and excellent court coverage. Atmane is younger and more aggressive but less polished. Kecmanovic’s experience on big stages and ability to execute game-plans should prove decisive here in the first round.
Prediction: Kecmanovic 2-0 | Under 22.5 games @ 1.96
Marin Cilic vs Zizou Bergs
Former US Open champion Cilic faces Belgian Bergs in a fascinating generational clash. At 37, Cilic still possesses one of the biggest serves in tennis, a weapon that becomes even more dangerous at Madrid’s altitude where balls fly through the thin air. Bergs is a crafty baseliner that has been in fine form lately. Looking at the bookmakers odds, this will be an even affair but I like what I’ve seen from the Belgian as of late and he won their only previous meeting back in 2024.
Prediction: Bergs to win @ 1.91 or -110
Fabian Marozsan vs Ethan Quinn
Hungarian Marozsan meets American star Quinn in one of the more intriguing first-rounder matches. Quinn, 22, has surged to a career-high No. 48 after reaching the Australian Open third round and winning the Phoenix Challenger. The Georgia alum unleashes massive forehands and regularly hits 120 mph serves. Marozsan has more experience and is the favorite among sportsbooks, but Quinn’s recent form, and in these conditions might make this tighter than the odds show.
Best bet: Over 22.5 games @ 1.80 or -125
Betting Strategy for Madrid
Altitude Matters: Madrid sits 700 meters above sea level, making the ball fly fast through thin air. This heavily favors big servers and aggressive baseliners over pure grinders.
Back Youth Over Aging Veterans: Young guns like Quinn and Blockx arrive with confidence and fewer miles on the clock. The fast conditions reward fearless ball-striking over experience.
First-Round Value: With Alcaraz and Djokovic out, betting markets are more uncertain. Look for live underdogs in tight first sets – momentum swings quickly on these courts.
The absence of Alcaraz and Djokovic opens the draw significantly, making this an excellent tournament to back in-form players at value odds before the market adjusts.
Odds are indicative and may vary depending on bookmaker. Always gamble responsibly.