Liverpool are considered almost certain to qualify for next season’s Champions League with five games left to play, after Chelsea‘s fifth loss in a row.
Chelsea slipped to a 3-0 defeat away to Brighton on Tuesday night to hand Liverpool a major boost in their hopes of finishing in the Premier League‘s top five.
With five places in next season’s Champions League available, the Reds only need to finish fifth to meet their minimum target for Arne Slot‘s second campaign.
According to Opta Analyst, ahead of Saturday’s clash with Crystal Palace at Anfield, Liverpool are 90.25% likely to secure Champions League football for 2026/27.
UCL Qualification Likelihood: Opta Projections
| Team | Current Position | UCL Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1st | 100% |
| Man City | 2nd | 100% |
| Man United | 3rd | 98.66% |
| Aston Villa | 4th | 98.33% |
| Liverpool | 5th | 90.25% |
| Brighton | 6th | 5.97% |
| Chelsea | 7th | 1.45% |
| Brentford | 8th | 1.93% |
| Bournemouth | 9th | 2.33% |
That comes with Chelsea having won only one of their last nine games in the league, with their collapse at Brighton their fifth in a row.
Arsenal and Man City are already qualified for the Champions League while Man United (98.66%) and Aston Villa (98.33%) are six points away from doing so.
How many points do Liverpool need to guarantee top five?
Liverpool need a maximum of eight points from their remaining five games to guarantee a top-five finish.
Brighton (5.97%), Bournemouth (2.33%) and Brentford (1.93%) are now all considered more likely to qualify for the Champions League than Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea (1.45%).
Opta’s Expected Points (xP) model predicts Liverpool to finish fifth and Chelsea to end the season in ninth.
Arsenal are still considered on course to win the title (71.16% chance) with Man City (28.84%) expected to come second, though the model could change if the latter beat relegation candidates Burnley on Wednesday night.
In terms of expected position (xPOS) for the season – which is based on expected goals for and against in any given fixture – Liverpool are actually viewed as unfortunate as Opta’s table would place them in fourth as it stands.
Liverpool are currently on 55 points in the actual table compared to 55.3 xP in Opta’s prediction model.
But with Chelsea (3rd xPOS) way off the mark and Aston Villa (12th xPOS) massively overperforming, Slot’s side find themselves in the position they are in.
Speaking after Chelsea‘s latest loss, Rosenior admitted it was the worst result of his short reign “by far.”
“[That] was unacceptable in every aspect of the game,” he told Sky Sports.
“I keep coming out and defending the players, that was indefensible, that performance tonight.
“The manner of the goals we conceded, the duels that we lost. Something has to change drastically right here, right now.”
He added: “The general attitude, spirit was lacking – determination from three or four of the starting 11.
“That’s nowhere near enough for this club. I can’t come out and lie. I tell the truth. That was an unacceptable performance at every level.”
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