The second round of WTA Madrid begins on Thursday. The opening round is the Round of 96 at this expansive tournament. Now we move into the Round of 64, with players who got first-round byes beginning their journeys in Spain. Will the winners of first-round matches have the momentum and form needed to knock off those who have been sitting idle for a few days, or will the quality of the higher-ranked players overwhelm the underdogs? We will find out soon enough. Here are our select matches for Thursday, and their best bets.
WTA Madrid
Galfi – Kalinskaya: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 0-2
Dalma Galfi was struggling earlier this year, but after losing five straight matches, she has rallied to win four of her last five, including three this week in Madrid. Galfi won two qualifying matches and then beat Ajla Tomljanovic in the first round of the main draw. She is building some momentum and confidence. Anna Kaliskaya, ranked in the top 25, which is nearly 100 spots ahead of Galfi, has split her last 10 matches at 5 apiece. She hopes to get on a winning streak of her own in Madrid.
Best Bet to Make
Galfi has won three matches in a row, but against weaker competition compared to Kalinskaya, whose recent losses have come against Karolina Muchova, Coco Gauff, and Victoria Mboko, among others. Kalinskaya loses to players better than her but usually beats those she is expected to handle. Galfi’s confidence is not going to help her against a superior player. You should be able to trust Kalinskaya here.
That being said, Kalinskaya -1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kalinskaya -1.5 sets @2.20 @Betway
Wang – Samson: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
Xinyu Wang is ranked 140 spots higher than Laura Samson, so why are the books not viewing Wang as a huge favorite? Wang is priced as a slight favorite, which seems due to the gap in rankings with Samson. The reason is that Wang hasn’t been playing well of late. She won a few matches at WTA Rouen, but she lost five of six matches and struggled with her game before. Samson has a better record in her last 10 matches than Wang does. Samson also beat Tatjana Maria in the first round at WTA Madrid, while Wang received a bye and might be a little rusty going into her first match of the week.
Best Bet to Make
Wang might not be in a good place, but she is clearly better than Samson and should be able to win the match. She might not even win in straight sets, but she should be able to get the job done. Don’t think too much about this one. Bet on Wang to win. The return is better than what it probably should be at 1.83 on Betfair.
That being said, Wang winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Wang winning @1.83 @Betfair
Bouzas Maneiro – Shnaider: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro defeated Beatriz Haddad Maia in the first round of Madrid. Haddad Maia is not playing particularly well right now, but that’s still a good win for Bouzas Maneiro, ranked No. 50 in the world. Haddad Maia has done well on clay in the past and is a capable opponent. Diana Shnaider is ranked No. 19 in the world. She lost last week in the Round of 16 in Stuttgart to eventual tournament champion Elena Rybakina.
Best Bet to Make
The key detail to note is that Shnaider has played top-level opponents in recent weeks. She hasn’t won many matches because she is running into good players. She has not only lost to Rybakina in the past six weeks; she has also lost to Jessica Pegula, Belinda Bencic, and Sorana-Mihaela Cirstea, all top-35 players. Most of those three are top-20 players. Shnaider losing to strong competition doesn’t mean her losses should be viewed as a sign of struggle. She’s just playing the best players on tour. Compared to Bouzas Maneiro, she’s a lot better. Bet accordingly.
That being said, Shnaider -1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Shnaider -1.5 sets @1.87 @Unibet
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports