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Why the Raiders will fall to the fourth pick of Round 2 in rare draft order year

Why the Raiders will fall to the fourth pick of Round 2 in rare draft order year

The Athletic has live coverage of the 2026 NFL Draft. 

Unlike the lottery system of the NBA, the NFL’s draft order formula is fairly simple. The team with the worst record ends up at the top, while the champions are picking at the bottom. That’s how the Las Vegas Raiders, who were tied for the worst record in the NFL last season, landed Thursday’s No. 1 pick after tiebreakers were applied, and the Seattle Seahawks had the 32nd pick.

Compensatory picks notwithstanding, you’ll find the Seahawks’ original pick at the bottom of each round, although Seattle has traded away each of its own Day 3 picks. The Raiders’ own pick in the ensuing rounds, however, is a revolving door. After holding the top pick Thursday night, they have the fourth pick in Friday’s second round, the third pick in the third round and the second pick when Saturday’s fourth round gets underway.

To determine the order of the first round, the NFL applies its tiebreaking procedures. In 2025, the Raiders, New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans all finished with a 3-14 record, but the Raiders got the top pick by winning the strength-of-schedule tiebreak. After the first round, teams that are tied in the standings are part of a rotation. As outlined in the NFL’s guidelines, “clubs originally involved in two-club ties will alternate positions from round to round. In the cases of ties that originally involved three-or-more clubs, the club at the top of a tied segment in a given round will move to the bottom of the segment for the next round, while all other clubs in the segment move up one place. This rotation will continue throughout the draft.”

This is why the Raiders will fall back to having the fourth pick on Friday, while the San Francisco 49ers — who acquired the Jets’ second-round pick in a trade on Thursday — will kick off the action on Friday night. This rotation holds true for any teams tied in the standings. For example, the Cleveland Browns and Washington Commanders finished the 2025 season tied with a 5-12 record. The Browns won the tiebreaker over the Commanders, which is why Cleveland owned the No. 6 pick of the first round and Washington owned No. 7. The two teams then alternate the rest of the draft.

There’s also three-way tie of 6-11 teams (New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals) that undergoes a similar rotation. There was a five-way tie of 8-9 teams, but the Carolina Panthers won the NFC South and made the playoffs so they are not part of the rotation while the other four teams (Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts) rotate throughout the draft.

Although the rotation is applied each year, it’s more notable in 2026 because of the cluster of teams at the top. Last year was a similar situation, as three teams tied for the worst record in the NFL at 3-14. But before 2025, the last time there was a tie for worst record was in 2015, when the Browns and Titans each finished with a 3-13 record. The last time there was a four-way tie for the worst record was in 2003. That year, the San Diego Chargers, Oakland Raiders, New York Giants and Cardinals finished with 4-12 records. The Chargers won the tiebreaker for the No. 1 spot and took Eli Manning with the top pick, the Raiders took tackle Robert Gallery at No. 2, the Cardinals took Larry Fitzgerald at No. 3 and the Giants took Philip Rivers at No. 4 (the Chargers and Giants would swap players).

To get an idea of how uncommon it is for the No. 1 pick to take the kind of fall in Round 2 as the Raiders will take this year, the 2003 and 2025 seasons are the only two years in NFL history in which there was a four-way tie for worst record in the NFL. So, while the Raiders got the draft festivities started on Thursday, it will be the 49ers, via the Jets, that get things rolling in Friday’s second round and the Titans are scheduled to kick things off Saturday morning in the fourth round.

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