After a Dreadful 2025 Season, the Braves Are So Back

The moment may prove fleeting, but at this writing, the Braves have a claim as the best team in baseball. At the outset of this season, Atlanta looked as though it might be headed for disaster yet again due to injuries and absences, with another Jurickson Profar suspension and the loss of Spencer Strider providing a particular sense of déjà vu. Instead of stumbling out of the gate, however, and even with a far-from-complete roster, the 2026 Braves have dominated opponents on both sides of the ball. At 21-9, they own the majors’ best record — and it appears they’ll get Strider back soon, as well.

Nearly five weeks in, the Braves haven’t lost a series. They kicked things off at Truist Park by taking two out of three from both the Royals and A’s, then went on the road and split a four-game set with the Diamondbacks before taking two out of three from the Angels. Upon returning to Atlanta, they took two of three from both the Guardians and Marlins, and after that sandwiched a pair of series wins against the reeling Phillies — a three-game sweep in Philadelphia and then two out of three at home — around a three-out-of-four series win in Washington. That’s eight series wins and one tie to date; by comparison, the Dodgers and Yankees (both 20-10) have each dropped pair of three-game series and split a four-gamer.

To be fair, after last year’s 76-86 dud and the retirement of manager Brian Snitker (replaced by bench coach Walt Weiss), the Braves were still essentially projected as NL East co-favorites alongside the Mets, according to our Playoff Odds, with a forecast for 89.6 wins, a 30.6% chance of winning the division, and a 79.0% chance of making the playoffs. Still, few expected them to return to dominate in such fashion. Through 30 games, they’ve matched the second-best start in franchise history, a record shared by the division-winning 1969 and 2000 editions. The only time they’ve started better was in 1997, when they went 22-8 and finished 101-61. They’ve gone 16-6 against sub-.500 teams without even getting a shot at the struggling Mets, and 5-3 against teams .500 or better. Their current record isn’t a fluke, in that they’ve actually got slightly higher Pythagorean- and Base Runs-projected winning percentages (.722 and .695, respectively) than their actual mark; both of those rank second in the majors behind the Dodgers, while their +68 run differential is tops. The Braves have run up those numbers by scoring a major league-high 5.70 runs per game and allowing just 3.43 per game, tied with the Yankees for second in the majors and behind only the Dodgers.

Without a doubt, Atlanta’s biggest surprise has been the resiliency of its starting pitching, as the team has a better rotation on the injured list than many have at the ready. Grapefruit League play hadn’t even begun by the time both Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep underwent arthroscopic surgery on their elbows, the former to remove bone spurs and the latter to remove loose bodies. Not long after that double-whammy, colleague Dan Szymborski modeled a stress test that showed that the Braves’ rotation was set up to take the largest hit of any team due to a rash of injuries — specifically, if the innings total of their top five was reduced by half, and the rest backfilled from within the organization — yet the hits kept coming. In early March, the Braves lost Joey Wentz for the season due to a torn right ACL, and just days before Opening Day, Strider strained an oblique. In the wake of an offseason where the biggest additions to their stable of potential starters were Carlos Carrasco and Martín Pérez, both on minor league deals, it wasn’t hard to imagine things heading south again.

Lo and behold, their makeshift rotation has been better than anyone could have hoped, posting a 3.02 ERA (third in the majors behind the Yankees and Dodgers) while ranking sixth in innings per start (5.36) and xERA (3.69). The unit has overperformed not only with regards to its preseason projections — with the absences of Schwellenbach and Waldrep already baked in, Atlanta ranked 10th in our Positional Power Rankings — but also by its peripherals. The starters’ 4.22 FIP ranks 22nd, and the -1.19 runs per nine gap between their ERA and FIP is the majors’ largest in that direction by nearly half a run. Much of that can be chalked up to the Braves’ collective ability to avoid hard contact, as they have the majors’ sixth-lowest hard-hit rate (38.6%) and third-lowest barrel rate (6.3%) in addition to the second-lowest BABIP (.244), helping to offset middle-of-the-pack strikeout, walk, and home run rates.

Absolutely nobody could have predicted that the Braves’ most effective starter to date would be Bryce Elder, a contact-oriented 26-year-old righty who was torched for a 5.59 ERA and a 4.55 FIP in 206 innings across 2024–25. His sinker averages just 91.2 mph within an arsenal best described as unremarkable, but he’s lowered his average arm angle from 52 degrees to 49, dropping his average vertical release point by 2.4 inches inches and shifting his average horizontal release point by about six inches toward the third base side. The changes have produced dramatic gains for his slider, which he’s now throwing more often than any other pitch:

After hitting .259 and slugging .427 against Elder’s slider last year, batters are managing just a .173 average and a .288 slugging against it this year. He’s cut his sinker usage in half and added a cutter, which he throws exclusively to lefties just to provide a different look. His 21.2% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate represent only slight improvements over last year, but he’s trimmed his homer rate from 1.38 per nine to 0.49, and has posted a 1.95 ERA and a 3.13 FIP.

As for ace Chris Sale, he’s put up an impressive 2.31 ERA, but his strikeout rate has dropped from 32.4% to 27.7% while his home run rate has spiked from 0.79 per nine to 1.29, so his FIP is currently a lofty 3.93. That said, he’s done a good enough job of avoiding hard contact (30.2% hard-hit rate, 2.97 xERA) that there’s little cause for concern. His most positive development is the return to effectiveness of his changeup; last year, Sale threw it to righties 8.9% of the time, and they hit .326 and slugged .450 while whiffing on 24.7% of their swings. This year, he’s thrown the changeup to them 14.2% of the time, and they’ve hit .176 and slugged .353 with a 31.4% whiff rate against it. That’ll do.

Grant Holmes, the rotation’s other constant, has posted a 3.62 ERA and a 4.89 FIP while continuing his hirsute tribute to the late Rod Beck, though the other two spots have been in flux. Reynaldo López, limited to just one start last year due to right shoulder surgery, has made four starts totaling 21 2/3 innings, but has struggled with command to the point that after retiring just three out of 11 Nationals on April 21 — walking three and giving up five hits — he’s been bumped to the bullpen. His average four-seam velocity is down 1.6 mph from 2024 (from 95.5 mph to 93.9), and he’s got an 11.6% walk rate and a 21.2% strikeout rate while allowing 1.66 homers per nine. Weiss said that although the team still views López as a starter, he’s currently “working through some things, delivery-wise,” and hopefully can “iron some things out” while contributing in the bullpen.

Currently rounding out the rotation are the 35-year-old Pérez and the 22-year-old rookie JR Ritchie. Pérez, who was limited to 10 starts and 56 innings with the White Sox last year due to flexor and shoulder strains, has already endured one cycle of being designated for assignment, clearing waivers, opting for free agency, and then returning on a minor league deal. He hasn’t missed many bats, but he’s delivered a 2.22 ERA (and a 4.43 FIP) in 28 1/3 innings spread over four starts — two of them scoreless, including his five innings in Tuesday night’s 5-2 win over the Tigers — and two relief appearances. Ritchie, a 2022 Competitive Balance pick who placed 68th on our Top 100 Prospects list as a 50-FV prospect in February, made his major league debut last Thursday with seven innings of two-run ball and seven strikeouts against the Nationals.

The rookie may not get a long look at this juncture. It appears that Strider will join the rotation soon, perhaps as early as Friday. Whether the Braves will get the dominant version of Quadzilla from 2023 (36.8% strikeout rate, 2.85 FIP, 3.86 ERA) or last year’s wobbly post-surgical version (24.3% strikeout rate, 4.53 FIP, 4.45 ERA) is anyone’s guess; he looked good during spring training, but his 94.5-mph average four-seam velocity was nearly 3 mph down from his 2023 average of 97.2. According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, Waldrep is poised to begin throwing bullpens early next week, putting him on track to return sometime in mid-to-late June. Schwellenbach hasn’t resumed throwing, and the Braves haven’t provided a timeline, but he’ll also need a full buildup. As to who would be bumped and in what order to fit those two — and perhaps López — back into the rotation, the Braves are months away from counting such chickens.

Meanwhile, the bullpen has been impressive, ranking fourth in the majors in ERA (3.19) and second in FIP (3.35) and WAR (1.3). Raisel Iglesias converted all five save chances and didn’t allow a run in 8 2/3 innings while putting up a 0.93 FIP before shoulder inflammation sent him to the injured list on April 21. He’s returned to throwing and is expected to be activated on May 5, when first eligible, or not long after. Robert Suarez, signed to a three-year, $45 million deal to be a setup man/closer-in-waiting, has been similarly dominant, posting an 0.71 ERA and a 1.55 FIP in 12 2/3 innings while going 3-for-3 in saves. Righty Tyler Kinley (13 innings, 1.38 ERA, 2.74 FIP) and lefty Dylan Lee (13 innings, 1.38 ERA, 1.59 FIP), the other two higher-leverage relievers, have been stingy, as well. It hasn’t hurt that the rotation has provided enough length not to overtax the bullpen, which ranks just 19th in the majors in innings (107 1/3).

These positive developments have been backed by an offense that has pummeled opponents, hitting a collective .274/.340/.453 (121 wRC+). Five Braves have a 140 wRC+ or higher, including two, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies, who were dreadful during the first half of last season. Harris is hitting .320/.356/.546 (149 wRC+) with six home runs while consistently stinging the ball, with a 94.5-mph average exit velocity (up from 90.2 last year), an 18.5% barrel rate (more than double last year’s 9.1%), and a 55.6% hard-hit rate. His 5.8% walk rate and 16.3% strikeout rate both represent improvements of more than three points. Albies has hit .316/.359/.513 (141 wRC+) with six homers, including a two-run shot against Detroit on Tuesday. Matt Olson has been the team’s top batter, hitting .299/.378/.615 (167 wRC+) with eight home runs (tied for fifth in the league) and typically excellent defense. Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin has shown no signs of a sophomore slump, hitting .301/.377/.504 (148 wRC+). Even with backup Sean Murphy still working his way back from September surgery to repair a torn hip labrum, Weiss has used Baldwin to DH nine times — including in all eight of the team’s starts against lefties — with newcomer Jonah Heim getting the nod behind the plate.

Profar was supposed to handle the bulk of the DH duty, but instead Weiss has paired Baldwin (or Heim, depending upon how you look at it) with Dominic Smith, the biggest surprise of that productive group, albeit in the smallest sample. Playing for his sixth team in five seasons, the 31-year-old Smith — a career .250/.315/.404 (98 wRC+) hitter coming into this year — has hit a sizzling .344/.368/.563 (157 wRC+) in 69 plate appearances, that while chasing 41.7% of pitches outside the zone and walking just 2.9% of the time. Enjoy it while it lasts, folks!

Speaking of fill-ins, with shortstop Ha-Seong Kim sidelined by surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right middle finger — suffered in January when he slipped on a sheet of ice — both Mauricio Dubón and Jorge Mateo have stepped up; their combined 93 wRC+ while playing shortstop is miles above the 56 wRC+ that the Braves received from Nick Allen and company at the spot last season. Dubón is hitting .282/.327/.437 (113 wRC+) on the year, additionally picking up two starts apiece in center field and right field plus another at third base, while Mateo is batting .286/.333/.429 (114 wRC+) in 30 plate appearances.

Not everything has gone right in the lineup. Left field was a major problem last year before Profar returned from his suspension (remember Alex Verdugo?), and new addition Mike Yastrzemski hasn’t helped, hitting just .205/.278/.273 (57 wRC+). Third baseman Austin Riley is batting just .202/.289/.333 (77 wRC+) after missing most of the final two months of last season due to a core injury that required surgery, and Ronald Acuña Jr. is off to an underwhelming start, batting .248/.360/.381 (111 wRC+) with two homers and six steals. His 89.1-mph average ext velocity represents a 3.6-mph drop from last year, and he’s been struggling mightily against fastballs, particularly four-seamers. After batting .269 and slugging .558 against heaters last year, he’s hitting .129 and slugging .161 against them in 2026, with his average exit velocity against them falling from 94.6 mph to 90.1. The good news is that making contact in general hasn’t been a problem, as his in-zone contact rate of 81.5% is up almost five points from last year, while his 19.1% strikeout rate represents a drop of nearly six points — but something’s off.

Despite last year’s disappointment, the Braves were supposed to be a good team this season, if not a powerhouse. Foundational pieces like Baldwin, Olson, and Sale have continued to shine, and the returns to productivity from Albies and Harris, the big step forward by Elder, and unexpectedly strong contributions of depth additions like Smith, Dubón, and Pérez have bought some of the other big boys time to heal their injuries and sort things out. The rest of the National League is on notice.