Apparently Auston Matthews might not be back in Toronto next season, per Chris Johnston of The Athletic. With an apparently league-hated GM (John Chayka) and unpopular Advisor pick (Mats Sundin), the final piece of the trifecta would be trading Toronto’s best player. Nothing is set in stone, as Matthews appears to be taking the Adam Fox ‘wait and see’ approach. But what if the Rangers trade for Auston Matthews? Could they pull it off? Do they even have the pieces?
For those subscribed to the Patreon, you knew this was something that could be coming. Maybe not a trade, but a discussion about what happens if the Rangers trade for Auston Matthews. It’s still unlikely he leaves Toronto, but now that this has officially hit the rumor mill, I’d be remiss to ignore it. Instead, let’s focus on a few trade packages that might entice Toronto if the Rangers trade for Auston Matthews. There are a couple different options.
As a reminder, Matthews has a full no move clause and two years remaining at $13.2 million.
Scenario 1: Rangers or bust
Since Matthews has a full no move clause, the best case scenario would be Matthews leveraging his no move clause and forcing his way to the Rangers. He would be reunited with three-quarters of the Team USA brain trust that just won gold in Milan. Naturally this would lower the trade cost for the Rangers as they’d be the only team in the mix.
A trade like this doesn’t materialize overnight, and it’s a best guess that if the Rangers trade for Auston Matthews, it would be in the September/October timeframe so the rest of the offseason can work itself out. And no, that wouldn’t impact what the Rangers offer that much, since Vincent Trocheck would likely not be on Chayka’s radar and I can’t imagine an analytics savvy Chayka being that interested in Braden Schneider. The only impact would be the Rangers top five draft pick, which wouldn’t have been in this equation anyway.
Even if it’s Rangers or bust, the Blueshirts need to give up *something* of value. Think back to the Patrick Kane trade. The Blueshirts still had to send two draft picks for the aging winger who only wanted to go to New York. One of those picks had conditions to be a first round pick as well. Those never materialized.
If the Rangers trade for Auston Matthews in this scenario, let’s assume the Rangers need to start with Noah Laba as the “significant” roster piece, Will Borgen for cap purposes and also filling a team need on the blue line, and a 2027 1st round pick. Maybe throw in Brett Berard for a fresh start and to give Leafs fans a feisty winger with some offensive upside to root for.
If (let’s be real, when) Leafs fans read this, remember if Matthews forces the Leafs’ hand, then all leverage is lost. Don’t worry, there are other scenarios.
Scenario 2: Leafs going for a rebuild
Scenario 1 is highly unlikely for the Blueshirts. If the Rangers trade for Auston Matthews, they will likely see competition from a number of teams. That number is up to Matthews as he navigates his no move clause. This is the most likely scenario, where five or so teams are involved in the bidding.
Using some of the same parameters above, a trade like this again doesn’t materialize until September/October. Since they would be one of a few teams, they’d need to up their offer substantially if the Rangers trade for Auston Matthews.
If Leafs fans are still reading, this is your most likely scenario, but also remember that just because it’s the Rangers offer doesn’t mean it’s accepted. This is a Rangers site, after all, and I’m just trying to guess what Chris Drury’s final offer would be in certain scenarios.
The big question is what direction the Leafs take under Chayka while trading Matthews. There’s always the potential for a full tear down, but since it’s Toronto my guess is some kind of retool or hockey trade to turn things around quickly.
Learning from Drury’s past attempts at trading for a superstar, he doesn’t make everyone available. Braden Schneider was a noted untouchable for Jack Eichel, so it’s safe to assume he’d make Gabe Perreault and whomever the Rangers take with their top-five pick this year untouchable.
Starting with the full tear down, then Toronto’s return is almost entirely futures. This offer probably starts with Laba, EJ Emery, Malcolm Spence, and their 2027 1st round pick as the framework. Will Borgen again gets added for cap purposes. Remember, this is a retool for the Rangers. The only way for this offer to improve is with quantity like Dylan Roobroeck, not quality like Perreault, Alexis Lafreniere, or that top five pick.
Scenario 3: Toronto goes for a retool and a quick turnaround
If Toronto is trying to thread the needle like the Rangers, then they will insist of Lafreniere and probably whomever the Rangers take with that top five pick. There’s some nuance here, as winning the lottery changes things for both teams. As it stands today, with the Rangers at third overall, would Lafreniere and Chase Reid get the job done?
There’s room to be creative here, as perhaps Toronto would find more value in a Caleb Malhotra or a Keaton Verhoeff instead of Chase Reid. If this is truly on Drury’s radar, would he make his selection based on what Toronto would want? I don’t think he’s creative enough to play 5D chess like this, but sometimes we need to explore all options.
Both teams going for retools makes this even more unlikely.
If the Rangers trade for Auston Matthews, they need to be lucky
If the Rangers trade for Auston Matthews in this scenario, then it’s likely Toronto leaves a better offer on the table. It’s tough for the Rangers to make this kind of trade without being the sole team involved. They just don’t have the pieces. Either that or Drury would have to be the only GM willing to work with Chayka.
So there would need to be luck involved. The Rangers would need to be the only team involved. They’d need Toronto to view some of the younger pieces in the Rangers system higher than we do. Again, luck.
To be honest, I don’t see the Rangers trading for Matthews. The teams just don’t line up since both are looking for the same things.