I’m sorry to go over it all again but the question I would ask is when Formula 1’s 2026 regulations were put in place, how did anyone think that they could get anywhere near a 50/50 hybrid power split over a lap when using the same size input and output motor – the 350kW MGU-K – to do both?
We know that 50/50 was never really true, it was probably more like 370kW from the internal combustion engine and initially 350kW from the MGU-K.
So working on those figures, that means the MGU-K could supply that level of power from a 4MJ battery pack for roughly 11.5 seconds before the torch went out.
Looking at the magic of how that was supposed to be possible is where I start scratching my head.
On a fairly average generic circuit the driver wants full power for around 60% of the lap and they are braking hard for roughly 15% of the lap. Which leaves 25% in no man’s land. Yes, some regeneration might be possible during that period but in reality not much. For simplicity let’s use 5% of that 25%, so that brings us to potentially being able to harvest for 20% of the lap.
So if we look at those percentages and base it over a 100 second lap we get 60 seconds of potential driver-requested full power. To achieve that from the 4MJ battery pack you need to charge it up 5.2 times per lap (11.5s x 5.2 = 60s) and to achieve that you only have 20 seconds of potentially using that same MGU-K at its maximum regeneration output, in other words using it as the rear brakes when on the brake pedal and on top of that during that braking period driving the engine against the MGU-K to maximise the regeneration – basically using 22 of the multi-million dollar power unit packages as a generator (that’s sending out a fantastic signal to this ever changing world’s push for a global emissions reduction).
This is where it has never made sense to me. Over a lap you’re requesting full power for 60 seconds, braking for 20 seconds so in effect 33% of the lap is your maximum potential for harvesting, and that’s being generous. So then to fill in the gaps comes lift and coast, and the dreaded super clipping. We all know what we and the drivers think of that requirement.
So to have any chance of balancing the books the electrical output kilowatts that partly power the car need to be reduced dramatically. If you just take basic figures, that theoretical 350kW needs to be divided by the 5.2 I calculated above, which would equal roughly 70kW. Add that to the 370kW from the ICE and it’s a total power unit output of 440kW as opposed to the initial declaration of 700kW.
Putting that into good old fashioned horsepower that’s 590bhp as opposed to 940bhp – however we need to remember that 940bhp is (or was) only being produced for a very, very limited amount of time.
Now this is just one snapshot across one theoretical circuit that I have created but you have to start somewhere. And that somewhere should be to come up with a proper theoretical circuit based on actual data from the 2021 season before we had the high grip ground effect cars, satisfy that theoretical circuit requirement for driver requested full power, full braking and part throttle potential harvesting and then you have a potential balance of payments system.
Below are the key figures from the FIA announcement of 2027 changes after Friday’s discussions and they go nowhere near enough to eliminate the need (on most circuits) for massive lift and coast sections and/or super clipping.
“The measures agreed in principle today for 2027 would see a nominal increase in Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) power by ~50kW with a fuel-flow increase and a nominal reduction of the Energy Recovery System (ERS) deployment power by ~50kW.
“It was agreed that further detailed discussion in technical groups comprising teams and power unit manufacturers was required before the final package was decided.”
I have made many mistakes in my life but the one thing I tried not to do was make the same mistake twice. What I am seeing from the above statement is that the powers to be don’t seem to have taken in account how dramatic the problem they have got themselves into really is.