The Italian Open reaches the business end of the fourth round tomorrow, Tuesday, May 12, 2026. We got the previews and our betting picks for two very interesting matches in Musetti vs Ruud and Tien vs Jodar.
Learner Tien vs. Rafael Jodar
Venue: BNP Paribas Arena
Scheduled Time: Approx. 13:00 CEST
This is a “Next Gen” dream match between two of the most successful college-to-pro transitions in recent years. Learner Tien has become the face of American tennis’s future, recently cracking the top 25 faster than expected. He’s known for his incredible lefty variety and defensive skills, which he used to upset Alexander Bublik earlier this week.
However, Rafael Jodar is the man of the moment on clay. Following his quarterfinal run in Madrid, the Spaniard has looked in superb form in Rome, so far defeating Arnaldi and Borges. He has the home-continent advantage on the red dirt and a more natural clay-court slide than Tien.
- Head-to-Head: Jodar leads 1-0. He won a five-set thriller at the 2025 Next Gen Finals in Jeddah.
- Jodar is the slight favorite, mostly due to the surface. Tien will need to use his lefty angles to pull Jodar off the baseline, or the Spaniard will simply overpower him.
Predictions and best bets
The odds are quite heavily favoring Jodar, a bit too much in my opinion. I can see Tien challenge him here and will go for a game hcp bet of +4.5 at the odds 1.92 for the American.
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Casper Ruud
Venue: Manolo Santana Centre Court (Centrale)
Scheduled Time: 11:00 CEST
This is a good battle of two great clay-courters. Lorenzo Musetti is the local hero and enters as the higher seed, carrying the hopes of the Italian crowd. He survived a brutal three-set test against Francisco Cerundolo in the last round and is playing with the kind of flair and confidence that makes him a title contender in Rome.
Casper Ruud has had a quieter 2026 compared to his peak years, but he remains one of the most dangerous clay-courters and his form has actually been really good lately. His heavy top-spin forehand is designed for these courts.
- Head-to-Head: Currently tied at 1-1 and Ruud won the most recent match in straight sets in Båstad in 2023.
Predictions and best bets
Ruud enters as favorite among bookies, based on recent form and also past clay court success. This will be a really interesting match as Musetti loves the home crowd here and he has been looking sharp in the start of the tournament. My bet is still on Ruud to get through in 3 sets.