I’ll be the first to admit that I was excited about the Rockies signing Michael Lorenzen this offseason.
With the new front office being high on him and the 34-year-old’s affinity for problem-solving and a seven-pitch mix, I bought into the hype. I even predicted Lorenzen, who signed a one-year deal worth $8 million in January, would record a career-high 10 wins this season.
Ten appearances — including nine starts — into the season, my optimism has worn thin. Lorenzen is leading MLB in hits surrendered with 67. And it’s not even close, as Cincinnati’s Brady Singer is second with 58. Minnesota’s Simeon Woods Richardson recently edged out Lorenzen for most earned runs given up at 36, while the Colorado RHP has 32.
Lorenzen has a 6.55 ERA in 44 innings — which is the worst in baseball among qualified players — and is 2-5 on the season. Lorenzen has not come close to solving Coors Field as he has a 9.64 ERA in four appearances there (18.2 innings) vs. a 4.26 mark in six appearances (25.1 IP) on the road.
Overall, opponents are hitting .347 with him with an xBA of .314. The xBA, his 114.2 max exit velocity, the .415 xOBA and 14.7% strikeout rate are all career-worsts for Lorenzen.
What’s most worrying about Lorenzen’s numbers is his high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) at .385, a hard-hit % of 50.3 and a barrel % of 9.3. The league average is around .300 for BABIP, 35-40% for hard-hit percentage and 6-7% for barrels. BABIP takes out homers, strikeouts, walks, and HBP and favors bloopers, line drives, poor defense, and ballpark gaps.
A high BABIP can be a mark of bad luck on its own, but paired with batters hitting the ball hard (at 95 mph or higher) and squaring the baseball up for barrels, it reduces the odds of bad luck and is more of an indicator of bad pitching.
In Lorenzen’s defense, he’s had some solid outings this season. His best game was his lone Quality Start when he gave up one run on seven hits in seven innings in New York against the Mets. Despite giving up 12 hard-hit balls, which is a season-high mark, Lorenzen’s curveball, sinker and cutter were working well.
He walked zero, struck out three and gave up only one double (six singles).
Lorenzen has two starts where he’s given up two runs or fewer, including the May 12 performance against Pittsburgh, where he was outdueled by Paul Skenes. In his five-inning outing, Lorenzen gave up two runs on five hits with five strikeouts and two walks, limiting the Pirates to three hard-hit balls. A big reason for his success was the command of his changeup and the steady 95-mph velocity of his four-seam fastball.
After the game, Colorado manager Warren Schaeffer was pleased with Lorenzen’s start.
“Breaking balls were good. I thought he was attacking very good. His fastball maintained velocity all night,” Schaeffer said. “I thought he was really good. He matched [Skenes]. Michael was good for us. That’s what we expect from him.”
Earlier in May, MLB.com’s Manny Randhawa documented Lorenzen’s high BABIP, especially at Coors Field, blaming bad luck. Lorenzen explained that he believes he is pitching well and his BABIP is bound to shrink.
“It’s kind of just challeng[ing] them to put the ball in play, and just a lot of bloops that are hit over second base on changeups, sinkers in that are jammed,” Lorenzen said. “I’m making good pitches, I’m throwing the right pitches. Just things aren’t going my way.”
Considering the elevated hard-hit % and barrels, this might be wishful thinking. At the same time, Lorenzen does have a low walk rate (6.6%) and a good ground ball rate (46.3%), which shows he is doing some things right. He’s proven he can have success, but it comes when his changeup, curveball, sinker and cutter are working and the four-seam fastball isn’t the go-to pitch.
However, Lorenzen has only made it to the sixth inning three times and is consistently getting shelled. After discussing Lorenzen’s early tenure with the Rockies with the wonderful Broomfield Baseball Club this week, it’s clear to see I am not the only one who’s doubting Lorenzen. The group, which meets monthly at the Broomfield Public Library, had several thoughts. Lorenzen might not have the durability to stay in the Rockies rotation, or, if he does, he’ll require a long reliever more often than not. He may have to move to the bullpen. Perhaps the front office will decide the Lorenzen experiment didn’t work and he’ll be shipped out of town by the trade deadline (if a team will take him).
After giving up seven runs on 11 hits with three walks, two strikeouts and 10 hard-hit balls on May 6 at Coors Field against the Mets, Lorenzen remained confident his numbers would even out.
“You just have to keep doing it and trust that baseball’s going to change,” Lorenzen told Randhawa. “You can’t have a .450 BABIP all year. So you just have to kind of hope that at some point it changes. … I feel like I’m making progress. Today’s the best I’ve felt in a really long time, mechanically. I’m happy with how I feel. And the numbers aren’t supporting it.”
His start in Pittsburgh supported that, but it was on the road. The next test will be when the Rockies return to Coors Field when Lorenzen is scheduled to start against the Diamondbacks on May 17.
The Isotopes scored nine runs in the last three innings, shrinking an 8-1 deficit, but the comeback still came up short on Thursday night. The late surge was powered by a three-run homer by Blaine Crim, who also doubled and scored another run. Vimael Machín hit a two-run double, while Cole Carrigg tripled and added an RBI single. Zac Veen and Braxton Fulford each chipped in RBI singles, and Drew Avans drove in a run with a sac fly.
Cole Messina homered, Andy Perez went 4-for-5 and Bryant Betancourt added two hits as the Yard Goats out-hit the Sea Dogs 10-7, but it wasn’t enough for Hartford. Portland jumped out to a 3-0 in the second inning by getting three hits, including a homer, against Sam Weatherly (0-2). Blake Adams took over for the next five innings, but gave up two more runs that ended up deciding the game. Jimmy Obertop added a double for Hartford, Zach Kokoska singled and scored a run and GJ Hill scored a run for the Yard Goats.
Spokane jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the top of the first, but it didn’t last long. The Hops tied it up in the bottom of the frame and continued to add one-run tallies in the second, third, fifth and seventh on their way to victory. Caleb Hobson started the game with a single for the Indians, stole second and reached third on an error. He came around to score on a Royneir Hernandez single to put Spokane up 1-0. Max Belyeu doubled to move Hernandez to third and a wild pitch allowed Hernandez to score to make up the Indians runs. Belyeu finished with three hits, while Kelvin Hidalgo added two. Lebarron Johnson Jr. took the loss, giving up four runs (three earned) on six hits with two walks and two strikeouts in four innings.
Ethan Holliday hit his seventh homer of the season, a two-run shot in the eighth inning, Carlos Renzullo hit a two-run triple in the seventh inning and Roldy Brito and Derek Bernard each recorded RBI doubles in Fresno’s 15-hit victory on Thursday night. Tanner Thach added three hits, drove in a run and scored a run and Clayton Gray went 3-for-4 with two RBIs. Riley Kelly struck out eight batters, giving up two runs on two hits with five walks in 4.1 innings for the win. Jhon Medina allowed one run in 1.1 innings and Manuel Oliveras added 3.1 scoreless innings to help the Grizzlies win.
Chase Dollander leaves Rockies-Pirates game | Purple Row
The young pitcher left in the second inning with right arm tightness. Dollander and the Rockies coaching staff aren’t saying a lot about the seriousness of the injury. Dollander will likely undergo imaging before more information is released. Read more about the game here.
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