On Sunday, Juventus suffered an enormous blow in the race for Champions League spots, as they were beaten at home by Fiorentina.
While the Bianconeri didn’t help their case, every other result in the penultimate round went against them, as their four European rivals were all victorious.
Napoli sealed their place in the UCL with a big win in Pisa, while Milan, Roma, and Como overtook Juve thanks to positive results over Genoa, Lazio, and Parma, respectively.
As things stand before the final round of the season, Milan are third in the table with 70 points. Fourth-place Roma have the same tally, while Como and Juventus are two points behind in fifth and sixth place, respectively.
Needless to say, the Old Lady needs a mini-miracle to climb back to the Top Four spots; otherwise, the team will have to settle for a Europa League place.
But in which cases would Juventus manage to flip the script?
Juventus defeats to Como could return to haunt them
First things first, Luciano Spalletti’s men must win the Derby della Mole against Torino to stand any chance. If they do their part, they will need at least two favours from other teams.
It should be noted that Juventus would have the upper hand if they finish level on points with Milan, thanks to their superior goal difference, and they also have the advantage over Roma in their head-to-head meetings.
On the contrary, the Bianconeri lost twice to Como this season, hence why Cesc Fabregas’ men are currently listed above them in the table.
Moreover, the rules state that if three clubs or more finish level on points, a mini-table would be created, taking into account the meetings involving these clubs exclusively.
As the IlBianconero explains, Juventus would finish on top of a three-team mini-table that includes Roma and Milan.
However, any mini-table involving Como would place the Bianconeri at the bottom.
Therefore, Juve cannot qualify for the Champions League if they finish with the same number of points as Como, unless both Roma and Milan lose on the final day of the season.
If Como were to drop points, the Old Lady’s chances would be boosted, but they will also require either Milan or Roma to drop points as well.
The two scenarios that would see Juventus sneak into the Champions League
In conclusion, Juventus can only qualify for the UCL by beating Torino and hoping for one of the following two scenarios to occur:
First scenario: Como drop points (lose or draw) plus either Milan or Roma drop points (lose or draw).
Second scenario: Milan and Roma both lose.