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Why the Canadian Grand Prix could be a pivotal weekend for Ferrari’s F1 season

Why the Canadian Grand Prix could be a pivotal weekend for Ferrari’s F1 season

The Canadian Grand Prix has often been a happy hunting ground for Ferrari, bringing back memories of Gilles Villeneuve, one of Enzo Ferrari’s most beloved drivers, and a proud record of 12 Formula 1 victories in Montreal, making the Scuderia the second most successful team at the venue behind McLaren.

This year, however, Canada represents something very different: pressure. Mounting pressure.

Although the Formula 1 season is only heading into its fifth round, Ferrari already finds itself in urgent need of a strong result to avoid losing even more ground to Mercedes, which has won every Grand Prix so far this year and is preparing to introduce its first major upgrade package in Montreal.

Ferrari’s most recent win in Canada came back in 2018 with Sebastian Vettel, and ending that drought would be hugely significant. Even more concerning is the broader statistic: Ferrari has now gone 32 Grands Prix without victory since Carlos Sainz’s triumph in Mexico in 2024.

Ferrari’s Miami upgrades failed to deliver the breakthrough expected

The Florida weekend left far more questions than answers, despite Ferrari introducing an 11-part upgrade package for the SF-26 — the largest development package brought by any team in Miami.

Team principal Fred Vasseur strongly defended the effectiveness of the updates, insisting the new parts worked as intended and that the race pace matched internal expectations. Yet the final result told a different story, with Mercedes and McLaren once again emerging stronger when it mattered most.

Charles Leclerc initially made a superb start, briefly taking the lead in the opening stages. But Ferrari’s race quickly unravelled as tyre degradation on the medium compound proved far more severe than anticipated, dragging the Monegasque out of contention far earlier than planned.

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Tension growing inside Ferrari

There were also clear moments of frustration over team radio, with Charles Leclerc asking to be more involved in strategic pit stop decisions — a sign that the collaborative decision-making process did not function as smoothly as intended.

The Ferrari driver also contributed to his own difficult afternoon, spinning on the final lap while battling Oscar Piastri in an attempt to snatch a podium finish.

After the race, Charles Leclerc did not hold back in his self-assessment.

“Unacceptable,” he said, referring to his own performance — a reflection of the honesty that has often defined his public reactions after disappointing weekends.

But a weekend like Miami cannot be reduced to a single driver error.

On the other side of the garage, the picture is hardly more reassuring. Lewis Hamilton lost around half a second of aerodynamic load on the opening lap after contact with Franco Colapinto, but the bigger issue raised by the seven-time world champion goes much deeper.

According to Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari’s simulator may be providing misleading data, pushing the team toward setup directions that fail to match the car’s real-world behaviour on track. Those comments inevitably caused discussion inside the paddock, because questioning the team’s central development tool opens a far wider debate than simple setup refinement.

For Montreal, Lewis Hamilton has reportedly chosen a radical approach: no simulator sessions before the race weekend, in the hope of reconnecting more directly with the car.

Mercedes and McLaren continue to raise the bar

As if Ferrari’s own concerns were not enough, its rivals continue moving forward aggressively.

McLaren, which won the Miami Sprint with Lando Norris and secured another strong Grand Prix result with both Norris and Oscar Piastri, is expected to bring the second phase of its development package to Montreal after already making clear gains in Florida.

Mercedes, meanwhile, is preparing its first major technical upgrade package of the season at a circuit where George Russell won last year. Toto Wolff’s team currently leads both championships, with Kimi Antonelli at the top of the drivers’ standings and Mercedes also controlling the constructors’ battle. Ferrari already trails by 70 points. Yes, this is still only round five, so it would be premature to call Canada Ferrari’s final championship chance.

But given the current performance concerns, the growing strength of its rivals, and the first visible signs of internal tension, the comparison may not be as exaggerated as Ferrari would like.

David Carter

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