This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays (2026/#15)

Two small wins last week!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

• Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
• Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss.  If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
• Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
• Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

• Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
• Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed.  This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
• No maximum fight amount.
• After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?

2026 Hit Rate: 1 of 9 (11.1%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 24.2%, WHR: 41.2% – Total Bet: $685 – Profit/Loss: -$523.83

 

“The Safe” bet/parlay

• Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
• Fighters listed all have negative odds (almost always betting favorites).
• Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
  • If I can’t get at least one bet, I’ll bend a little on this percentage and mark the fight(s).
• Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.

[no qualifying bets!]

2026 Hit Rate: 7 of 11 (63.6%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 59.3%, WHR: 74.8% – Total Bet: $854 – Profit/Loss: +$256.94

 

Other things to consider….

• WHR referenced in this post is fighter age-adjusted using a formula driven by previous results.  This is not “vanilla” WHR.
• “Odds Win %” does not factor in the “juice”.
• Our odds are composite odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
• As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo.  If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
• FM Agree – If YES, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog pick is indeed the underdog and the safe pick is the favorite.
• Don’t blame us if you lose money.  Gamble at your own risk.
• Per-fight bet amounts are linearly scaled per fight from $5 to $200 for dog bets and $50 to $200 for safe bets.
  • “The Underdog”
    • Per-fight bet amount is based on the Win% difference between WHR and Odds.  Higher difference = Higher bet.
    • Parlay bet amount is the average of the fight bet amounts, rounded to the nearest dollar.
  • “The Safe”, it is based on the difference between WHR Win% and 75%.  Higher difference = Higher bet.
    • Per-fight bet amount is based on the Win% difference between WHR and 75%.  Higher difference = Higher bet.
    • Parlay bet amount is the minimum of the fight bet amounts, rounded to the nearest dollar.
• If a fight is scrapped, I will adjust the profit if the parlay cashes.

 

 

The post This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays (2026/#15) appeared first on Fight Matrix .