Before we get into a list of names (or lack thereof) to answer the question above, one quick truth about this sport: nothing in it is ever a sure thing. Tennis has no bench and no teammates — when you walk onto the court it is just you, a racquet, and whatever your body and brain decide to bring that day. A rolled ankle in practice, a stomach bug from a hotel buffet, a humid evening or blistering hot afternoon when the forehand simply won’t land — and the tournament is over. No next game on Sunday. Just a presser and an early flight home. That’s tennis.
But with that said, Jannik Sinner is poised to make me eat every word I just typed. Because the fact of the matter is that nothing I’ve seen this spring leads me to believe that Sinner is vulnerable. NOTHING. He has won every Masters event this year. The Channel Slam (Roland Garros and Wimbledon back-to-back) is an accomplishment of elites. Bjorn Borg did it, Rafael Nadal did it, Roger Federer did it, Novak Djokovic, and more recently Carlos Alcaraz did it. That’s a short list of the all-time greats. And if Sinner manages it, that makes him a de facto ATG — to the utter dismay of his legion of haters.
Yet even those who would as soon see the Italian fail must grudgingly admit that it’s the most likely outcome. You don’t amass a win streak like Sinner has done and communicate vulnerability. It makes sense. Sinner is the top seed in Paris, the most relentless ball-striker on tour, and he tends to beat even good players with ruthless efficiency. Sascha Zverev is the next closest-ranked active player — and he generally struggles to win games off the world No. 1.
For two years now, the Grand Slam trophy cabinet has had exactly two tenants. Sinner and Alcaraz have devoured the majors and left everyone else to split the runner-up plates. Every Grand Slam for two seasons has functionally been a two-man conversation, with the rest of the tour competing for the leftovers.
Except the conversation just lost a man. Alcaraz is out — out of Roland Garros and out of Wimbledon –while still nursing the right-wrist injury he picked up in Barcelona at the start of the clay swing. This is huge, and I don’t think it can be overstated. Alcaraz is the only player alive who owns the full trifecta against Sinner – the game to hurt him, the nerve to do it on the big points, and receipts. Simply put, he ain’t scared. With him on his couch, the draw doesn’t just lose a name — it loses its one genuine plot twist.
So who is left to play spoiler at Roland Garros?
On paper, there’s a respectable group. There’s Zverev, the world No. 3. There’s Casper Ruud, who has reached two French Open finals. But I have to be honest with you. Beating a fully fit Sinner in three-out-of-five sets, on a slow court, with Alcaraz subtracted from the equation? Hardly a recipe for a juicy upset. The young guns Rafael Jodar and Joao Fonseca may get there eventually — but it’s not going to be in a week’s time.
Wimbledon is a different animal, and it offers a better answer, which is obviously Novak Djokovic. Grass shortens the points, rewards a lifetime of know-how, and forgives the legs in a way clay never has. Djokovic has triumphed at the All-England Club seven times. If anyone still standing has the pedigree to trouble Sinner over five sets on a quick surface, it is the man who has won more often than anyone alive. Add a big server who catches fire for a fortnight — a Ben Shelton, a Taylor Fritz — and Wimbledon has some upset promise. Paris, frankly, flatlined the day Alcaraz withdrew.
My conclusion? With Alcaraz gone, the honest answer to “who can stop Jannik Sinner” probably isn’t a who at all. It is a what. A blister. A virus. A draw that hands him a red-hot floater in week two. Sinner should win the Channel Slam. He probably will. But it’s still worth noting that he was moments away from bowing out of the Australian Open because of heatstroke and cramping. It’s only due to the roof being closed due to the heat rule that kept him in…
So anything’s possible — just not likely.