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Who will capitalize in the bottom half? 

Who will capitalize in the bottom half? 
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The 2026 French Open feels like a race for second place on the men’s side. In order to have a chance of winning that battle, you obviously have to be in the bottom half of the bracket opposite top-seeded Jannik Sinner. Following Thursday’s draw ceremony, among those who find themselves on the more favorable side with No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev are Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Alex de Minaur, Casper Ruud, Arthur Fils, Rafael Jodar, and Joao Fonseca. 

With main-draw action beginning on Sunday, it’s time to break down the 2026 men’s singles field.    

Check out the French Open draw at the tournament website 

Jannik Sinner’s quarter 

This is, of course, the last section where anyone wants to be. The news is especially bad for Luciano Darderi, who would have had a real shot at making a deep run had he found himself in the bottom half of the draw. Instead, the recent Rome semifinalist could run into Sinner as early as round four. Possible quarterfinal opponents for the world No. 1 include Ben Shelton, Alexander Bublik, and Frances Tiafoe. 

Best first-round matchup — (29) Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi 

When healthy and playing at their best level, both of these guys are capable of reaching week two at Grand Slams. That certainly has not been the case in 2026, so this may not be the highest-quality matchup – but it should be competitive. Although Griekspoor is the favorite on paper, Arnaldi finally showed some signs of life with a third-round appearance in Rome. 

 

Best potential second-round matchup – (19) Frances Tiafoe vs. Hubert Hurkacz 

Best potential third-round matchup – (6) Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas 

Possible surprises – Sinner isn’t going to lose – not prior to the quarterfinals and not ever – unless he is physically compromised. The only question in this section is who the Italian will face in the quarterfinals. Arnaldi, Raphael Collignon, and Hubert Hurkacz are among the unseeded threats who could advance to the second week from a relatively open half of this quarter. 

 

Felix Auger-Aliassime’s quarter 

For those in this section of the bracket, it means a potential meeting with Sinner in the semifinals – but at least that’s better than the quarters! In other words, the news is not entirely terrible for Auger-Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli, and Learner Tien. Medvedev’s half of this quarter is especially intriguing, as the Russian could face Francisco Cerundolo or Gael Monfils in round three before encountering Cobolli or Tien. 

Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev

Best first-round matchup — Marin Cilic vs. (WC) Moise Kouame 

It goes without saying that this is the largest age gap of the first round. Cilic (37), won the 2014 U.S. Open when Kouame (17) was five years old. This should be a fun one because Cilic – ranked 45th – is still playing well in the latter stages of his career and Kouame is starting to make a name for himself at the tour level. Add the French crowd into the mix and the atmosphere for this one could be electric. 

 

Best potential second-round matchup – (25) Francisco Cerundolo vs. Gael Monfils 

Best potential third-round matchup – (10) Flavio Cobolli vs. (18) Learner Tien  

Possible surprises — Barring a Monfils miracle in his final Roland Garros appearance, the quarterfinal spot in the bottom half of this section will almost certainly go to either Medvedev, Cobolli, Tien, or Cerundolo. On Auger-Aliassime’s side, though, things could get crazy. Watch out for Cameron Norrie, Alejandro Tabilo, and Daniel Altmaier to make some noise. 

 

Novak Djokovic’s quarter 

Djokovic’s opening match may not be overly competitive (or maybe it will?!?!), but it will make headlines – especially in France. The 24-time Grand Slam champion is getting night-session treatment on opening day against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Djokovic could eventually face Joao Fonseca or Dino Prizmic in the last 32 and two-time Roland Garros runner-up in round four. All of that would require plenty of popcorn. In the other half of this section, Alexander Blockx and Ignacio Buse are unseeded floaters who could capitalize on a favorable draw. 

Best first-round matchup — (11) Andrey Rublev vs. Ignacio Buse 

Rublev is no stranger to running into hugely talented youngsters early at slams, having lost to Fonseca at the 2025 Australian Open. Buse may not be at Fonseca’s level, but the 22-year-old Peruvian is red hot right now and particularly dangerous on clay. Fatigue could be a factor since Buse reached the Hamburg final, but if it isn’t…sound the upset alert.  

 

Best potential second-round matchup – (28) Joao Fonseca vs. Dino Prizmic 

Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Casper Ruud vs. (24) Tommy Paul 

Possible surprises — With Djokovic no longer invincible, whoever wins the expected second-round, rising-star showdown between Fonseca and Dino Prizmic could make it to the second week. More likely, however, is that a surprise or two will take place in De Minaur’s half of this quarter. Blockx, Buse, and an in-form Mariano Navone are ones to watch on the red clay of Roland Garros. 

 

Alexander Zverev’s quarter 

Yes, Sinner looks unbeatable – but when you only have to defeat one of Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, you have a much more realistic chance. That goes for Zverev, Djokovic, Medvedev, and other outside title contenders in Paris. For Zverev, it also creates a ton of pressure. At 29 years old and with youngsters like Jodar and Fonseca on the rise, the German’s slam title hopes are not getting any better. Even though he obviously wouldn’t meet Sinner until the final, Zverev’s draw isn’t entirely ideal. He could face Tomas Machac in the second round, Fils (if healthy) in the fourth, and Jodar in the quarters. 
 
Best first-round matchup — (17) Arthur Fils vs. (WC) Stan Wawrinka 

Could this match be a dud? Yes. Heck, it might not even happen – Fils failed to get through his first match in Rome because of a back injury. And if it does happen, you never know what the 41-year-old Wawrinka is going to bring to the table whenever he takes the court. If both guys somehow manage to play well, however, the entertainment – and the atmosphere – will be off the charts for what will likely be the Swiss’ final match at a tournament he won in 2015. 

 

Best potential second-round matchup – (7) Taylor Fritz vs. Alex Michelsen 

Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Jiri Lehecka vs. (21) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 

Possible surprises — With Fils coming in as a question mark, Wawrinka has realistic third-round potential. The three-time major winner could even face Machac rather than Zverev at that point, as the Czech has the talent to beat anyone on any given day. On the other side of this quarter, unseeded players who could make a run are Alex Michelsen, Thiago Agustin Tirante, and Terence Atmane. 
 

 
 

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