For comparison, the 2025 Blue Jays went 11-14 in April and 16-12 in May. This year, the 2026 Blue Jays had a 10-16 record in April and 11-10 in May, which is only slightly worse than the 2025 season.
The month of June was when the 2025 Jays finally turned the tide in their favour with a 16-10 record. The 2026 Jays can hope to bring the same momentum this June, and here are the four key match-ups that can determine their trajectory for the rest of this year.
Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves (June 2-4)
The Atlanta Braves have underperformed for the past two years, mostly due to injuries, but they are back to being one of the toughest opponents around the league. The Braves have one of the best records in the league at a current 36-18 mark.
A big part of the Braves’ success is their offence and pitching clicking together simultaneously. The lineup, featuring Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Matt Olson and Austin Riley, is fearsome and powerful again. Even Ozzie Albies is back to being a pesky second baseman, which makes the lineup much more similar to the 2023 season.
The Braves’ pitching suffered from some injuries, but pitchers like Bryce Elder, Chris Sale and Spencer Strider have been consistently strong. There are also newer pitchers, such as Dylan Dodd, Didier Fuentes and Grant Holmes, who have significantly lengthened the pitching depth. On the relief pitching side, Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez have been lights out as well.
Everything is going the Braves’ way, so if the Blue Jays can win the series, that would be a huge win in itself.
Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays (June 8-10)
The Phillies’ earlier slump came when the lineup struck out without getting on base often (their power hitters, like Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner, are prone to strikeouts), and their pitching allowed countless runs. That has evened out since changing their manager, and the Phillies’ offence has come to life, for the most part, with its advertised power surge.
Philadelphia’s roster, especially its offence, is aging. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner are well into their 30s, and one of them is on the injured list. There are some young players like Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter who are starting a youth movement, but it hasn’t been nearly enough to propel the Phillies to a division lead.
The Phillies aren’t at their most threatening version yet, which should give the Blue Jays a chance to take advantage of this weakness when they host a series earlier in June. Hopefully, the Phillies aren’t going white-hot by the time they travel to Toronto.
Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays (June 19-21)
However, the Cubs are a complete team that can overcome their struggles with resilience from a longer-term perspective. Chicago hasn’t been immune to injury bug this season, and their pitching injuries have thinned their pitching depth over the past few months. But their offence also has been quiet; their seven-game losing streak in May proves just that.
The last time the Cubs and Jays faced each other last season, the Jays took away the series after capitalizing on the Cubs’ general weakness from top to bottom. That doesn’t mean that this series is an easy one for the Blue Jays. The Cubs are a much better team on paper this time around and have shown that they have the potential to be a formidable team aiming for a playoff spot and a division lead.
The offence that consists of Alex Bregman, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson is one of the toughest lineups to work with at its best. If the Blue Jays are eyeing a return to the playoffs this year, they have to find a way to beat another playoff hopeful.
New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays (June 29 – July 1)
The Mets are also one of the biggest victims of injuries this season, including Juan Soto’s IL stint, and that has greatly impacted their performance so far. Their definitive weakness has been the overall lack of pitching. Their fifth starter has been a revolving door featuring David Peterson and everyone from the farm system and the trusted circle of relievers.
Even when pitchers like Nolan McLean give the Mets a chance to win by allowing little to no runs, the Mets’ offence has been largely lethargic, which led to many agonizing losses. Up until May, the Mets haven’t been able to find consistent success, outside their series sweep against the New York Yankees. This allows the Blue Jays to make up ground in the division and Wild Card race for their fateful three-game series against the Mets, just in time for Canada Day.
This series is a standout because the Jays reunite with former all-star shortstop Bo Bichette. Bichette slumped terribly to begin his year but has found his offensive spark since. The Blue Jays haven’t been able to replace his production in 2026, and it’ll be fascinating to see how Bichette’s matchup against the Blue Jays’ pitching will pan out. It’ll equally be intriguing to see whether the Blue Jays will perform well offensively without Bichette in this particular series.
The Mets’ drama shouldn’t distract the Blue Jays from how strong this team is on paper, especially when it comes to the lineup.
At their best, the Mets have Soto, Marcus Semien, and Mark Vientos, who can wreak havoc against opposing pitchers. Losing Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor, and Luis Robert Jr. has stunted the team, but they’ve aggressively promoted prospects like A.J. Ewing and Nick Morabito, who could add depth to the offence. The Mets’ pitching hasn’t exceeded any expectations, but Tobias Myers, Freddy Peralta and Christian Scott have held the rotation together with an ERA between 3.20 and 3.56.
This series will be a litmus test for the Blue Jays to see if they can re-establish themselves as the team to beat before the All-Star break in mid-July. The Mets may not have been great, but don’t let this series deceive you – a team like this can come roaring back out of nowhere if the Blue Jays remain complacent.