Alright, the first round is done and dusted at the French Open 2026? There have been numerous surprising results so far. Let’s get into it.
As you might have seen, we did a predictions video, going through the whole draw. This is always risky business as tennis is one of the toughest sports to predict (except that Sinner is winning everything, maybe).
I messed up one match where I put Kypson instead of Gaubas, but if I count them correctly, I got 44 picks right and 19 wrong (well lets say 20 as I put in the wrong match) and that amounts to 69%. There were some notable upsets among these matches.
Medvedev and the French Open
Based on how I saw Medvedev play against Sinner in Rome, where he was close to beating him, I thought he would go far in Paris. But Medvedev now has seven first-round exits out of ten starts after losing to Adam Walton. This match score illustrated some of the craziness that was going on during the first round: 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 1-6, 6-4. The heatwave has notably affected many players and the many one-sided sets tell a story about not really having the energy to fight back in sets that start one way. Instead you tank a bit and conserve energy.
I predicted Casper Ruud would win against Safiullin, but it turned out to be an intense physical battle with both players visibly struggling. Ruud went up two sets to zero and was serving for the match, but Safiullin saved six match points and came roaring back to take the third set and then Ruud looked completely out of it in set 4. Luckily for him, he could afford to tank that set, lose it 0-6 and then come back in the fifth to take the match.
If we stay with the upsets, I had a feeling Fritz wouldn’t feel a hundred percent comfortable on the French clay. He has been struggling with injuries for a while, but he did claim to be physically fine afterwards and ready for the grass. He did say that Basavareddy was hitting some amazing drop shots from positions where you cannot normally hit drop shots. So he did give some praise to his opponent.
Bublik upset against Struff
Jan-Lennard Struff is one of those players who, on a good day, can beat pretty much anyone. He has had some impressive tournament wins and runs over the years. The last one was a few years back, but in retrospect, this was clearly a dangerous match for Bublik. Especially with the heat. Bublik likes to keep rallies short and although the temperature does increase the speed of the ball a bit, it will also make each rally more physically demanding.
It was a close-fought match but Struff’s head was cooler: 7-5, 6-7, 6-4, 7-5
The age gap match
I thought experience would beat youth in the Kouame vs Cilic match. But Kouame showed no fear and the talent he possesses. A three-set win is a statement of sorts: 7-6, 6-2, 6-1. 17 years old and in the second round of his home slam. That is something special.
That Shapovalov is not a huge fan of clay courts, I knew beforehand. I had this as a bit of an upset alert because Faria can be very dangerous on the red dirt. Did not see a three set win over Shapo coming, though. We are seeing stars of the game struggle to find their footing recently: 6-4, 7-5, 6-4 to Faria.
I was also surprised to see Lehecka lose to Carreno Busta in 4 sets. Yes, Busta can play really high-level tennis but we haven’t seen that in a while. I should also have given more props to traditional clay court players like Comesana beating Quinn and Navone beating Brooksby (Argentinians vs American is one thing on hard courts and one thing on clay, generally speaking). But then I thought Etcheverry would beat Borges, but he lost in straight sets.
Moutet was my pick to beat Kopriva based on him playing at home and being a tricky opponent for a classical player like Kopriva. But kudos to the Czech who managed to get through in five sets.
Monfils was my favorite against Gaston, but he did fade away a bit in the fifth. Maybe he is just ready to retire now and there is nothing wrong with that after such a nice career. Thanks for the entertainment, Gael!
Summary
In short, a difficult first round to predict. I think we won’t see as many upsets for round 2 as players are getting into the tournament and are learning how to work with the heat. The weather will cool next week, so then we will see who better handles the adjustment needed, but we have a HOT few days ahead of us.
You have all the draws and results on the official Roland Garros website. Let me know if you have any interesting predictions or premonitions for the upcoming matches. Sinner impressed in the first round, while Djokovic looks like he needs a few matches to settle. Jodar is still a strong pick for me to go far, alongside Zverev. The rest of the field seems very open and unpredictable.