NFL Week One Odds
We’re currently stuck in the middle of another long NFL off-season. The Draft is over, mini-camp news is dull and pointless, and you’ve probably wrapped up your Dynasty rookie draft. The next best thing is looking at sports betting futures and player props.
Not everyone likes to analyze team and player futures odds, but it’s a refreshing take compared to all the media talking heads who always seem to have their favorites or like taking shots at players just for clickbait. Linemakers don’t care about retweets; their job is to create the perfect line that drives interest, and those who study the lines and their movements get an early edge on the season, as mentioned here. In the coming weeks, Gridiron Experts will start to focus more on team futures in our lead-up to NFL training camp.
After the NFL released the 2026 schedule, which came out much later than in years past, FanDuel put together early Week 1 odds. The following are a few game odds that stood out to me:
- Patriots at Seahawks -4.5
- 49ers at Rams -2.5
- Bears -2.5 at Panthers
- Browns at Jaguars -7.5
- Falcons at Steelers -2.5
- Commanders at Eagles -4.5
- Jets at Titans -2.5
- Dolphins at Raiders -3.5
- Cowboys -2.5 at Giants
- Broncos at Chiefs -2.5
My Thoughts
A few things jump off the board right away. The Chiefs’ opening at just -2.5 against Denver is the most interesting number of the bunch. Kansas City at home in Week 1 at under a field goal feels like an invitation; either the market knows something about the Broncos’ offseason rebuild, or that number is going to move significantly before kickoff.
Jacksonville laying 7.5 against Cleveland is the largest spread on the slate (so far) and, honestly, may be the most justifiable. The Browns’ quarterback situation remains one of the bigger question marks heading into the season, and the Jaguars at home with a full offseason under their new structure should be capable of covering against a Cleveland team still sorting out its roster.
The Cowboys as road favorites over the Giants is always worth noting. Dallas -2.5 in MetLife is a statement from the market about where both franchises stand right now. The Giants have been one of the NFL’s more difficult rebuilding situations over the past couple of seasons, and the line clearly reflects that gap.
Chicago as a road favorite in Carolina is another line that stands out. The Panthers at home, even against a Bears team that has its own question marks, would typically draw more respect. That the market has Chicago favored on the road suggests very little confidence in what Carolina is building right now.
The Rams hosting San Francisco at -2.5 in what should be a genuinely competitive NFC West divisional opener feels tight. Those two teams have played close games for years, and that number will attract sharp action on both sides.
The Steelers at -2.5 against Atlanta, with the Tua-Penix situation still unsettled in Atlanta, makes sense. Pittsburgh at home, familiar system, settled quarterback — that line reflects the uncertainty the Falcons are carrying into September.