The field will be vying to take advantage of the most wide-open draw at the French Open in decades, with Spanish teen star Rafael Jodar battling veteran countryman Pablo Carreno Busta and a resurgent Andrey Rublev facing Jakub Mensik on Sunday.
(27) Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
A year ago, Rafael Jodar was ranked outside the top 700. He is 19 years old, seeded 27th at the French Open, and is coming off a four-hour,16-minute war against Alex Michelsen in round three. Jodar’s clay record at the ATP level is 17-3, which is the kind of number that gives pause — not teen Rafael Nadal-level dominance, but impressive all the same. This year marks his first-ever main-draw Roland Garros appearance.
Conversely, Carreno Busta is a savvy veteran who is making the most of the opportunity at this wild edition of the French Open. His story this week is almost as good as Jodar’s. He was ranked outside the top 100 as recently as March of this year and now finds himself in the fourth round against a player with almost no experience on the big stage. Unfortunately for PCB, the big stage doesn’t seem to be giving Jodar any pause. Look for the young gun to surpass the veteran.
Cheryl pick: Jodar in 3
Ricky pick: Jodar in 3
(11) Andrey Rublev vs. (26) Jakub Mensik
Mensik had what looked like a legitimate health scare earlier this week. He spent nearly five hours in the heat against Mariano Navone in round two, collapsed after the match (seemingly unable to move), and left in a wheelchair. Then he came out in round three against Alex de Minaur, got bageled 6-0 in the first set, and promptly won the next three 6-2, 6-2, 6-3. Resilient? Undoubtedly. But the mileage is also real. Rublev, by contrast, has won three straight-set matches without dropping a set, and heads into Sunday conserving considerably more in the tank. His Roland Garros quarterfinal pedigree (2020, 2022) matters on the terre battue.
The head-to-head is interesting. Mensik leads 2-0 — straight-set wins that both came on hard courts. Clay is a different conversation, and Rublev has been the more consistent clay performer this season, with quarterfinals in Barcelona and Rome. If Mensik is anywhere close to full strength physically, this match gets more complicated for Rublev…but if the legs are gone, Rublev’s efficiency and experience win the day. Expect Mensik to push on the Russian some before Rublev’s fresher legs take over.
Cheryl pick: Rublev in 4
Ricky pick: Rublev in 5