Alexander Zverev is once again on the doorstep of Grand Slam glory.
This time, it feels a little bit different.
It isn’t Carlos Alcaraz standing in Zverev’s way (Alcaraz won their 2024 French Open final in five sets). It isn’t Jannik Sinner (Sinner dominated their 2025 Australian Open final in straight sets). It isn’t even Dominic Thiem (Thiem won their 2020 U.S. Open final in a fifth-set tiebreaker).
Only Flavio Cobolli stands between Zverev and the French Open trophy. Of course, Cobolli cannot be discounted given how well he has played this fortnight — nor can Zverev be considered a slam dunk in this kind of situation regardless of who is on the other side of the net. Still, the German is a heavy favorite for multiple reasons — starting with their head-to-head history. Zverev leads 3-1, which includes a 6-2, 7-6(4), 6-1 victory in the Roland Garros third round 12 months ago. Their other two clay-court encounters came earlier this spring; Cobolli pulled off a 6-3, 6-3 upset in the Munich semifinals, but Zverev responded with a 6-1, 6-4 rout in the Madrid quarters.
With fellow top players tumbling out of the tournament all around him (or, in Alcaraz’s, Lorenzo Musetti’s, and Arthur Fils’ cases, not even playing), Zverev has not come close to losing. The 29-year-old secured his spot in a fourth Grand Slam final with wins over Benjamin Bonzi, Tomas Machac, Quentin Halys, Jesper de Jong, Rafael Jodar, and Jakub Mensik. Only Halys and Mensik even managed to take a single set, and in both of those matches Zverev was already in complete control prior to a momentary lapse in the third.
Cobolli has also been in dominant form, avoiding five-setters the entire way. The 14th-ranked Italian coasted past Andrea Pellegrino, Yibing Wu, and Learner Tien in straight sets, beat Zachary Svajda and Felix Auger-Aliassime in four, and then got a semifinal walkover from compatriot Matteo Arnaldi (illness).
The key for Cobolli is to make this match as competitive as possible, forcing Zverev to feel the pressure. If the world No. 3 was going to fold, though, it probably would have already happened in the quarterfinals or the semis. Given his own form and an opponent who won’t dictate the outcome, Zverev should finally be in line for his first Grand Slam title.
Pick: Zverev in 4