| 12:32 |
: Friday chat fam, what’s up? Hello from the kitchen island in Tempe as monsoon season looks like it has arrived early and we’re in line for some rain today. |
| 12:33 |
: I wrote up the Twins with James this week. Two more orgs to go before we’re done with all 30. I’m starting on Rays this weekend, Brendan is doing Marlins. Pretty exciting stuff! Let’s see what you’ve got for me today…
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| 12:33 |
: Happy to see Merphy Hernandez in your Twins writeup, even as an honorable mention. Yohandy Morales isn’t a favorite of the prospect community, but he’s hitting 339/415/596 at Rochester. Don’t the Nationals have to give him a try soon?
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| 12:34 |
: Merphy can play some defense, man. I share in the Yohandy skepticism but think he’s in line for trial after Garcia is traded. |
| 12:34 |
: No real question, but I’m excited that Daniel Espino finally got the call. I can’t imagine his stuff is quite as electric as it was before the injuries, but he’s still bumping 100 in the minors and the story behind it is amazing.
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| 12:36 |
: He’s going to be a higher leverage reliever, I think. Sitting 96-100 with plus vert, slider generating plus miss. Ryan Helsley look to the mechanics. Hunter Harvey type trajectory for Espino.
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| 12:36 |
: In honor of the impending silly season – which (if any?) blue chip/top 20ish prospects do you think are most likely to get moved by the trade deadline?
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| 12:37 |
: I’ll guess George Lombard
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| 12:38 |
: Hi Eric – did you see the moonshot from Eli Willits last night? I haven’t been able to find the EV or distance but it looked like it cleared the fence by 50 feet. Relatedly, are you still projecting him for below average power at maturity? |
| 12:39 |
: Last night’s homer left the bat at 104 mph.
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| 12:39 |
: His homer from the day before was 105, his hardest hit airborne ball of the season.
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| 12:40 |
: That’s certainly not a reason to change his projection at this time. |
| 12:40 |
: ty for all you do Eric. Bryce Rainer K numbers in A+ are ridiculously high. he’s gone through a bunch of swing iterations, timing mechanism changes, etc, with his current swing looking a lot simpler, closer to his pre-injury swing. can you confirm? does he move down in your rankings?
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| 12:42 |
: I was on he skeptical side of our group when we did hondo stuff, and even though some of my concerns are coming to bear, I think I wanna see how things play out a bit before drastically re-evaluating him.
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| 12:44 |
: Thanks for chatting! You ranked CLE prospects back in Jan. In your view, has Juneiker Caceres done enough to improve his 40+ FV at this point? If so, how do you see his tools, FV, and/or prospect rank at this point? Thanks! |
| 12:48 |
: Maybe up to a 45? He and Hendry Mendez are pretty similar. With Caceres I wonder how much power there’s going to be against big league fastballs. Great contact hitter, really like him as a prospect, not sure there’s the kind of impact I want from a corner OF there (to stuff him in the 50 FV while he’s in A ball)
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| 12:48 |
: I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts on 2026 Curtis Mead… what changed? is this sustainable? if you were GM, are there a few other scrap heap ex-prospects you’d be interested in buying on?
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| 12:49 |
: His body looks as cut and lean as I have ever seen it, totally rededicated himself to his conditioning and it’s paying off. I’m buying. |
| 12:51 |
: He’s also swinging less fwiw, he was a chaser and now is arguably passive. Zone swing under 60%, big league avg is….
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| 12:51 |
: 64%
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| 12:51 |
: That’s the ex Boston guys influence no doubt |
| 12:51 |
: Thanks for excellent content – much appreciated by all of us, I’m sure. Scouting reports had Zach Root’s fastball as pretty pedestrian coming out of college. But seeing his K rates I’m wondering if he’s seen a sustained velocity bump this year? Or is he just beating up on A ball hitters with deception? I had heard his velocity was up in short stints in spring, but wasn’t sure if those gains stuck around.
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| 12:52 |
: lemme pullup last year’s college trackman data to see the specs on the heater and compare to now to see if there’s been a change…
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| 12:56 |
: He is throwing a couple ticks harder, 93-97 t98, more tail than rise (no different than college), his breaking balls have added some rpms but nothing crazy crazy, though they’re missing bats at an elite rate. The most obvious change I’m seeing at first blush (just looking at the data not video) is his changeup usage is way down in deference to the breakers. |
| 12:56 |
: Angeibel Gomez hasn’t struck out in first 30PA of DSL. Also shown power and patience. But it’s DSL. So… should I be excited as his dynasty owner? Any info on his EVs? Thanks Eric!
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| 1:00 |
: His data is rad: 90% contact, 45% hard hit. pretty absurd combo for the DSL. ANd what’s maybe crazier is he’s doing it with a super conservative swing, it’s practically strideless. There’s more room for power not only as he fills out, but once he starts using his body more.
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| 1:00 |
: Not a prospect anymore, but is there a chance we’re seeing the Endy Rodrguez breakout?
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| 1:03 |
: Honestly, yeah. I think it’s possible. While I work on these in-season lists I put the big league team on basically every day and he was first getting run as I worked on Pirates. I thought he looked good. Almost killed a pitcher with an errant throwdown the one day, but otherwise pretty good. I dont think he’s gonna be a 55 or anything. Could he be a 45 or 50? Yeah
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| 1:03 |
: Does Josiah Hartshorn’s early performance at A+, and particularly his recent power outburst, change your evaluation at all, or still too small a sample? Thanks!
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| 1:08 |
: I don’t think it’s enough to change it, we def like him and you should, too. Above avg contact, avg power, maybe 70 plate discipline. Our eval is strong, I just think from a value philosophy standpoint I want the A ball hitters we’re elevating into the top 100 to be projectable up the middle guys…
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| 1:11 |
: If we put on the hartshorn tape and he’s great in CF, now we’re talking. But if a player is more of a data-driven prospect than a scouty one, that’s fine, but then i think that’s the sort of prospect who it’s mroe important to have a robust full season data sample from before we say, “ok it’s def 70 plate discipline”
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| 1:11 |
: I’m always leery of DSL repeaters. Is Christian Arguelles anywhere near as good as the stat line looks? Or is he just beating up on guys a year younger than him?
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| 1:12 |
: He’s a nice prospect (can play CF, feel to hit) but he’s not a true talent .600 slugger. More a long term play than a freaky top 30 overall guy
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| 1:12 |
: Perich and Osorio were TEX prospects of note in the team preseason ranking – how has their production so far notably changed your eval?
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| 1:16 |
: Perich I really like and almost have to recuse myself from evaluating because he’s from my neck of the woods in PA. He’s going to be a part time big legue corner bat, he’s Rays-y…
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| 1:19 |
: Osorio does not have *this* much power. He’s a smaller guy, and granted: he uses the ground and rotates well, he’s swinging harder than last year and he’s def a good little contact hitter, but he still more on the fringe for me. Perich I think is proximate and is going to have utility
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| 1:20 |
: Always appreciate these chats–among my favorite things on the site. Minor league draft going and it’s time to shoot for the moon. The lotto tickets on my list are: Jirvin Morillo (Cin), Wilder Dalis (Col), and Alexander Frias (Mil). All I really care about is upside, however far off that may be. Where would your dart land? Thanks!
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| 1:23 |
: Man, that’s tough…
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| 1:24 |
: I think I’m eliminating Dalis if upside is the only thing you care about
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| 1:24 |
: Morillo and Frias are the freakier guys of the three.
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| 1:25 |
: Morillo has done kind of a 180 this year, he was a more balanced player in the dsl and early this spring. He’s absolutely stronger now but he’s selling out for power a ton.
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| 1:26 |
: Oh, wow, Morillo’s contact rate has like really dipped. Way down at 60%
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| 1:27 |
: Frias has warts (including a fair amount of whiffing) and he’s practically a negative launch angle guy right now…
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| 1:27 |
: But he it up there *hitting*, his timing and feel are better, and he’s swinging with real strength in just his hands.
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| 1:27 |
: ANd he’s got so much room for strength.
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| 1:27 |
: so i think I’d take him
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| 1:27 |
: Hello! Who would you rather have in your system and why: Anthony Eyanson or Joseph Dzierwa? (2025 draftees, both in Eastern League, AL East rivals)
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| 1:28 |
: Eyanson. It’s monster stuff. Dzierwa I like (changeup, command, he’s a strike-throwing 4/5) but his raw breaking ball quality will probably limit his ceiling. Eyanson might have two 70 grade pitches.
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| 1:28 |
: How would Gage Wood gauge a Gage Wood if Gage Wood gauged Gage Wood? Also, do you think he’s coming up anytime soon and if so, how do you think he’d fare?
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| 1:31 |
: They have every incentive to at least let him come up in a relief capacity and rip his fastball past guys. I think the happy medium is letting him start until you’re 35-ish innings away from what you thought his 2026 limit was going to be, and let him air it out for those innings in the bigs.
|
| 1:31 |
: Should I be at all concerned about LDV’s lack of slug this year? I know he was dealing with a finger injury, do you think it’s related?
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| 1:33 |
: I’m not sweating it. The finger might be part of why, he’s also just a kid.
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| 1:34 |
: I’m afraid the Henry Davis and Termarr Johnson 1st round picks will haunt the Pirates for the next 15 years. Any remaining hope for either? Thanks for these chats!
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| 1:36 |
: I dont think either will be stars. “haunt” is strong, who else from ’21 are you taking? Gavin Williams and Jackson Merril weren’t realistically going first.
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| 1:37 |
: Josh Baez contact concerns…how worried are you once he gets called up?
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| 1:38 |
: I say it basically every week in here (just in case there are new folks here) that I am skeptical.
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| 1:38 |
: What skills from scouting do you think would be transferable to another sport/discipline? If someone all of a sudden made you head of scouting for a swim program? Head of admissions for a piano conseevatory?
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| 1:40 |
: I think you have some framework about what questions to ask to probe at what might make someone good that isn’t just their lap time, and I think from a logistics standpoint you’d know how to set up schedule/travel/eval collection stuff really fast
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| 1:40 |
: There’s been a bunch of speculation that Roch Cholowsky is not the lock for 1st overall that we previously thought. Does Vahn Lackey have a chance to end up in that spot? It seems to me like he’d be the best choice, even if you don’t think hes quite the hitter that Cholowsky could be
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| 1:41 |
: I think there are three or four guys who you could talk yourself into, there’s not a big enough gap between Roch and the other three for him to be a lock, especially if you want to take the lowest bonus guy of the group to do more later. But if that’s your strategy, then Vahn maybe isn’t your guy, either.
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| 1:43 |
: Interesting re Yohandy after Garcia gets traded. I would have thought Abimelec Ortiz might be the next man up?
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| 1:43 |
: Totally feasible
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| 1:44 |
: River Ryan.
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| 1:44 |
: He’s gonna be a thing. How many pitches did he throw yesterday?
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| 1:45 |
: 83
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| 1:45 |
: He’s a day behind lauer’s throw day?
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| 1:45 |
: (looking)
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| 1:47 |
: So his next day would be SHoehi’s day and Shohei has knee stuff?
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| 1:48 |
: After the last two farm systems are done what’s the plan? Mid season top 100 update and then draft coverage?
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| 1:52 |
: The hondo is like a sourdough starter and I’m not sure it needs a huge update. We’ll definitely pull grads off of there and the ranking next to guy’s names will change, but I kinda like the way it looks right now, in part because the grads are still on there and you can get a feel for where we’ve had the big leaguers, etc. Here’s that btw: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball
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| 1:52 |
: it’s just a living breathing thing
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| 1:54 |
: We’ll crosscheck the contenders’ orgs and have pieces related to that. Brendan will crosscheck the Phillies list that I did originally and I’ll do Seattle, etc. Update those orgs and do pieces around that.
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| 1:55 |
: On draft, I’ll be at the Combine, update the rankings, get the mock dope flowing, and probably do some writing on the draft in light of the CBA negotiations.
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| 1:56 |
: I asked BG this but wanted your take as well. With the possibly juiced up MILB ball, has that impacted the actual or perceived performance of pitching prospects this year? How are you evaluating them given the wacky ball?
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| 1:59 |
: I wanna say that I agree there’s seemingly something going on across the minors that’s impacting data (last I looked hard hit rates were up like three percentage points across the minors, player eV90s on average are up two ticks) but I want to be clear that I don’t know if it’s the ball, or if it’s a change in hitter approach, or conditioning, or the bats guys are using, or what. Until the physicists get involved and are satisfied, I am not and we are speculating.
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| 1:59 |
: But yeah, dudes are getting shelled more.
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| 1:59 |
: Eric – would the current pace of 8.75 runs per game allowed by this year’s Asheville Tourists be a MiLB record? Even if not, is that just what a 30th ranked farm system looks like?
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| 2:00 |
: See?
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| 2:01 |
: What do you think of the guy who has been playing catcher for the Tacoma Rainiers this week? Just joined the club and already hitting the heck out of the ball. Future there?
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| 2:03 |
: I know Mariners fans won’t feel this way because the bullpen has done things to their cortisol levels this year, but you’ve gotta be psyched that even though last year’s best player has been bad or hurt, that your’e in first
|
| 2:04 |
: Guardians FO seems to be more aggressive than normal this year with big-league promotions. What’s your take? True Contention Window opening?
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| 2:06 |
: I think, until the promotions you’re talking about are proactive in service of the big league club, that I’ll assume what’s being doneto serve a value proposition, rather than a dynamic approach that sometimes says “fugg it, let’s go for it”
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| 2:06 |
: What’s happened to Christian Oppor? Is there any precedent to a guy who loses his command finding it again or is this more likely an Alex Hansen scenario
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| 2:06 |
: What would FanGraphsman’s power be?
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| 2:07 |
: Just perfectly regressing things to the mean?
|
| 2:08 |
: Is he some christlike martyr who makes bros realize they shouldn’t be on draftkings?
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| 2:08 |
: Matzek is the precedent
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| 2:08 |
: Hi Eric – with you being based where you are; how do you fight against the any bias when you compare prospects you see in-person vs. prospects you normally don’t get to lay eyes on?
|
| 2:08 |
: Spend a month in Florida and try to see the other guys too
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| 2:09 |
: As far as you know are the Rangers still planning to develop Seong-Jun Kim as a two way player? So far he’s only appeared as a position player in complex games.
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| 2:09 |
: Most teams developing two ways guy have them pitch during Extended or instructs at the start. It’s lower stakes, you can control pitch counts better.
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| 2:10 |
: Sadbiel. Sadbiel. Sadbiel. Make this a thing!
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| 2:10 |
: We’re in Tiktok brain portion of chat.
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| 2:10 |
: Saw some video of Xavier Isaac recently and noticed he’s basically completely gotten rid of any pre pitch movement and stride. Think there’s a chance he ends up with enough contact to still be a good big leaguer with this new set up? Might be jumping the gun a bit with them next in the cycle.
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| 2:11 |
: “I think the fact that he’s able to make changes and adjustments at all is a positive sign. Good job by you, observant citizen!” -FanGraphsman
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| 2:11 |
: Keith Law sure is planting his flag on “Roch doesn’t go 1.1” He originally had Emerson there, now he has Lackey there. If you had to estimate, what’s the probability of Roch actually going first pick? 50/50 or something else?
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| 2:11 |
: last time Keith did this it was with Henry Davis
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| 2:12 |
: I think it’s a useful exercise, even if he doesn’t get the player exactly right, just to say “hey this isn’t a lock”
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| 2:12 |
: Kaleb Wing actually capable of giving the Cubs a second viable impact starting prospect?
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| 2:13 |
: Yeah. That’s maybe a 7 splitter. Those 40+ prospects and above are the ones we think are quite good Chicago Cubs Top 34 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball
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| 2:13 |
: On Endy Rodriguez – he burned both challenges in low leverage situations in the 4th inning on Wednesday. When/how will challenge effectiveness start getting worked into catcher evaluations and projections?
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| 2:15 |
: lol yeah he did. I think teams are still getting a feel for how to value it, I think a lot of them are over indexing for situation now because we’re getting a sense of who is good at it, and whether they can get better at it if they’re not.
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| 2:16 |
: Roden is no longer a prospect, but I’m curious how he looked before he got hurt. Thanks Eric!
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| 2:17 |
: He’s rehabbing in Fort Myers, watched him this week. He’s moving the barrel around well, body has backed up. He looks like a 45 to me.
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| 2:17 |
: Who are some honest to god 65+ PV hitters currently in MLB who we might not yet think of as such? Relatedly, how many legit 65+ PV hitters exist in the league at any given time?
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| 2:20 |
: *Hitters?* It’s the guys who are doing 120 wRC+ across several seasons. Major League Leaderboards – 2021 to 2026 – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
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| 2:20 |
: Anyone straddling the line between the first and second standard deviation is what i’d call a 65, their defense often just tips them into one bucket or another
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| 2:22 |
: Okay, we’re creeping up on two hours so i’m gonna call it and go listen to my guy Roxy call this West Virginia game.
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| 2:22 |
: Great chat this week, guys. Talk soon.
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