Next up in The Win Column’s 2026 NHL draft profiles is the 6’5″ left-shot defender, Nikita Shcherbakrov, from Toros Neftekamsk. The late 2007 birthday makes this his first draft-eligible season. The Russian stalwart defender ranked #40 for our Win Column ranking, and slots in as the 13th best European skater by NHL Central Scouting.
The defender enters this year’s draft with a late first-round, early second-round projection.
Who is Nikita Shcherbakov?
| Player | Position | Shoots | Height | Weight | Born | Nationality | 2026 Draft Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Shcherbakov | Left Defence | Left | 6’5″ | 187lbs | 10/23/2007 | Russia | TWC rank #40 | CS rank #13 EU Skaters |
The Chelyabinsk product grew up within the Traktor Chelyabinsk youth hockey system, and even represented the Volga region three times at the U14, U15, and U16 District Cups. The Russian defender would go on to be recruited by the Salavat Yulaev UFA program. In the past two years, the left-shot skater has appeared at all three levels within the Russian hockey system (VHL, MHL, and KHL).
Shcherbakov’s on-ice production
| Year | Draft Rel. | League | Team | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [2022-23] | D-2 | Russia U16 | Salavat Yulaev Ufa U16 | 34 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 0.41 |
| [2023-24] | D-1 | Russia U17 | Salavat Yulaev UFA U17 | 39 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 0.66 |
| Russia U18 | Salavat Yulaev UFA U18 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.83 | ||
| [2024-25] | D+0 | Russia U18 | Salavat Yulaev UFA U18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 |
| MHL | Tolpar UFA | 40 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0.20 | ||
| 2025-26 | Draft yr | MHL | Tolpar UFA | 15 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0.66 |
| VHL | Toros Neftekamsk | 35 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0.29 | ||
| KHL | Salavat Yulaev UFA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Shcherbakov is a capable two-way defender who can jumpstart offensive breakouts, distribute pucks in the offensive zone, and create space with frequent cutbacks, higher-end agility, and clean edgework. The 6’05 Russian adds stability and mobility to a team’s offensive game. The main knack on his point production, scoring-chance creation and offensive output likely won’t translate to professional hockey.
The left shot defender might not be a point generator, but what Shcherbakov brings will make him a stable, reliable breakout artist that could complement a more offensively minded partner. This reliability will allow the big Russian to take pressure off of a team’s stars, while not sacrificing transitional play.
Shcherbakov’s strengths
Shcherbakov experienced a lot of different hockey this season as the 18-year-old played seven games in the KHL, 15 in the MHL, and 35 in the VHL. In his stint in the VHL, he was primarily a reliable Top-4 defender, averaging 18:38 TOI, with 1:58 as a power play QB, and 1:44 on the penalty kill. In his 22 shifts per game. He also averaged 104 puck touches: talk about a puck mover.
Shcherbakov’s game is best defined by his higher-end mobility and confident puck movement, while also having an edge of physicality to everything his 6’05 frame does. He is a true do-it-all defender with play-killing physicality and quick breakout passes. He’s truly an asset in all three zones of play.
Skating
Shcherbakov is one of the best transitional defenders in this draft, and a large reason why is the defender’s sheer skating fundamentals. From clean pivots, incredible edgework, and agility, he can keep up with pro-level plays with few issues. Additionally, Shcherbakov also thrives as a lane creator and pace-pusher, especially at the MHL and VHL levels, where the prospective 2nd-rounder can simply blow past defenders on his frequent activations.
Shcherbakov uses every inch of space well. If he’s given an inch, his crossovers, pivots, and edgework can turn it into much, much more, which will be directly transferable to the next level.
This is most evident in transition play, where the Russian uses his agility to combat any opponent’s elusiveness with stifling angles, and manages to push opponents to the outside even when he’s chasing the play. His gap-control skating hints at good space usage, isolation aptitude, and semi-efficient angling, which allows his skating alone to be a play-killing tool.
Mechanically, his stride projects slightly above average, with good recovery, push off, and extension, but does tend to get needlessly high, which hampers his power. Look for his overall top speed, power generation, and rate of acceleration to improve further as the Russian adds more muscle to his slimmer 6’05 frame.
Physicality
There is an undeniable element of gritty physicality and toughness to Shcherbakov’s game. From his hitting form, high-end physical engagement, and body positioning, the VHL’er can force his way into any physical situation with ease. The left-shot defender has a low centre of gravity as well, allowing for even greater leverage, which is extremely evident in board play situations.
This past season, Shcherbakov engaged in 12 puck battles per game, and despite his inexperience, he won 50% of those battles with more veteran players. Additionally, the Russian’s physical engagement and skating allow him to be an effective puck stripper and retrieval specialist to the tune of seven takeaways per game using his skating, reach, and stick usage.
In the defensive zone, Shcherbakov’s physicality shines the most with clear stick tie-ups, constant inside body positioning (which makes it hard on opposing forwards), and selfless play in both board battles and as a shot blocker. He is a board play menace, and quite frankly, an annoying defender to play against by all facets of the word.
Shcherbakov’s grit and toughness are evident in his physical play, with 0.73 shot blocks and 0.33 hits per game. Both of which are numbers that are expected to rise as the young defender gets more comfortable in his lanky frame. Much like his skating, his physicality is projected to improve as he ages and develops more muscle mass and physical poise.
Puck Skills
Shcherbakov’s transitional ability is best articulated when he has the puck. The European’s puck skills stand out due to his high confidence with the puck, lane awareness, poise under pressure, and crisp pass placement. Whichever team drafts Shcherbakov is getting an outlet passing machine who identifies his options quickly and has stellar lane awareness.
Statistically, Shcherbakov averaged a whopping 33 passes per game with a 91% accuracy across the 2025–2026 campaign. In both offensive transition and zone play, Shcherbakov is a distributor with all the handling, stable (but not particularly creative) vision, and smooth pass placement.
Shcherbakov also showed advanced poise with the puck as the season went on, too, leading to him being a factor in 0.8 scoring chances per game. In short, he’s a smooth puck mover with solid option awareness and the tools to get the puck where it needs to be, while also possessing the skating inclinations to create passing/shot lanes when there are not any obvious ones.
These puck skills are best exemplified by his 1:58 of time per game as the power play quarterback, offensive pressure supporter, and key offensive decision maker for his clubs.
Shcherbakov’s areas of improvement
Shooting
Shcherbakov is not known as a scorer, and there are a couple of reasons for that, with the most obvious being his rough shooting mechanics. The KHL product has an extremely stiff release point, which often makes his weight transfer incomplete/awkward, and hampers his overall power.
There’s also little deception to his shot placement, which allows opponents to both block or mitigate his shooting lanes with relative effectiveness.
Across the entire 2025–2026 campaign, Shcherbakov averaged 2.5 shots per game and had only a 48% accuracy. The shots that did hit the net often came out as lower danger opportunities. His shooting lane identification and 9% finishing aptitude were less than ideal. Additionally, the young defender generated a lowly 0.16 goals expected rate across the season.
The limited shooting ability does not alter or harm Shcherbakov’s overall projection, as he is not expected to be a scorer or offensive contributor at the next level either way.
Hockey Sense Refinement
Shcherbakov’s hockey sense is the main area of concern for the Chelyabinsk product. The defender’s offensive instincts remain stalled. His play reading is quite reactionary, and his game is plagued by inconsistent positioning. Where his skating and puck skills allow him to be a secondary offensive generator, his hockey sense demonstrates forced plays, ill-timed activations, and concerns around play anticipation.
Both offensively and defensively, there’s an evident lack of play processing. Shcherbakov chases plays more than he would like, while also allowing greater danger established zone plays to form around him, leading to a 0.40 errors leading to a goal per game rate. There is a general scramble-y element to his defensive zone coverage away from the boards, which further hints at these defensive play anticipation/positioning issues as well.
Where he has shutdown ability in defensive transition, this upside is not as evident in established zone plays, as his defensive awareness and anticipation need to take steps forward before he adjusts to professional hockey in North America.
Offensively, Shcherbakov lacks the intensity, offensive creativity, and instincts to be a more consistent play driver or generator at the next level. Where his puck skills demonstrate clear option awareness, he struggles to create dynamic plays or lanes, and displays an unfavourable habit of forcing jam-plays or net crashes that lead nowhere. These types of situations are where the defender largely generates his 4.4 giveaways per game, too.
Shcherbakov’s limitations in offensive instincts will indirectly/directly kill offensive pressure and momentum, which will largely relegate Shcherbakov to a basic blueline distributor’s role at the next level.
Defensively, Shcherbakov’s senses should develop with time and more experience, as he gets more used to professional hockey, and if they don’t? Well, his more developed physicality and mobility will adequately compensate for the young defender.
It is possible that, with this also being only Shcherbakov’s second year within the Russian developmental pyramid, he could just be a late bloomer.
NHL comparable and timeline
Comparison: Alexander Nikishin
ETA to the NHL: 3–4 Years
Potential: 2/3rd pairing transitional puck-moving defender.
Both Nikishin and Shcherbakov are subtle but effective defenders who use the trio of size, skating, and puck-moving to influence their team’s play. Neither defender is an innate scorer, but they don’t have to be, as they have the 200-foot game that allows them to kill opponent rushes, while simultaneously jumpstarting an offensive breakout.
Much like Nikishin, Shcherbakov could take the longer path of developing his hockey sense as time goes on as well.
Fit with the Flames
| Organizational need addressed | Shutdown-Physical Defender |
| Realistic pick range | 25-55 |
| NHL timeline | 3–4 Seasons away from competing for an NHL roster spot |
| Flames fit verdict | Possible Fit |
Shcherbakov does fit the Calgary Flames scouting memo on defenders as his 6’05 frame, shutdown upside, evident physicality, and smooth mobility are key aspects fans have seen in other selections. It’s just a matter of whether Shcherbakov can separate himself from the likes of Eric Jamieson, Axel Hurtig, and Mace’o Phillips, who will all likely be filling a similar (ish) role in the Flames pipeline, with an equally similar NHL timeline.
One thing that Shcherbakov does better than most of the prospects in the pipeline is distribute the puck, but is that breakout upside worth it? That’s something we will have to wait to see come the NHL draft.
Summary
With high-end mobility, silky passing, and a strong physical base, there is plenty to like about Nikita Shcherbakov. The main issues are a non-innovative offensive upside and some defensive senses that might take a bit of time to work out at the professional level. With further growth in his senses, muscle mass, and skating power, the Russian product could likely project as a complementary puck-moving 2nd pairing defender who would find the most success with a more offensively gifted defensive partner in the near future.
Check out all of The Win Column’s individual player profiles of selected 2026 NHL Draft prospects: Category: NHL Draft.