| 2:01 |
: Hello everybody |
| 2:01 |
: Since we last did this, Eric and James published a Twins list.
|
| 2:02 |
: I have been working furiously on the Marlins. That’ll go either tomorrow or Thursday but it’s essentially done.
|
| 2:02 |
: Which leaves just the Rays and this will all be over. |
| 2:02 |
: For now let’s do this
|
| 2:03 |
: Is James Tibbs III a Top 50 prospect at this point?
|
| 2:03 |
: Thank you for reminding me of the project on the other side of the lists.
|
| 2:04 |
: Somewhere around there for Tibbs I suspect
|
| 2:04 |
: Now that Dollander is getting some type of UCL repair, can I dream on Gabriel Hughes to be the next interesting CO starter? Sure the ERA is ugly in AAA, but the FIP is good and the PCL is a bloodbath regardless. |
| 2:04 |
: Hasn’t looked good the last couple years
|
| 2:04 |
: Cole Carrigg – savior of the CO outfield? I kid, mostly, but surely he’s a better option than Doyle, Beck, and Thompson?
|
| 2:05 |
: Savior seems strong but he’s interesting. I’m curious to see how much infield he’ll play… |
| 2:07 |
: Last April the Jay’s Angel Guzman got one line in the HMs that ended with “He needs to get stronger”. He wasn’t mentioned for 2026. Across all the usual power metrics he’s done that in his first go around at CPX this season. Any updated thoughts?
|
| 2:08 |
: Come back next week and I’ll take a deeper look; complex players are tough to look at quickly.
|
| 2:09 |
: Short answer is that the measurable power is up a few ticks, which is good, but the environment is weird this year and so it’s a little tough to untangle what’s new and different about him and how much is just because everyone’s hitting for more power. |
| 2:09 |
: Hi Brendan, is there any Braves prospect chitter chatter you can share with us?
|
| 2:10 |
: Everyone is understandably jazzed about Hartman but I’m not sure you shouldn’t be just as/more excited about Southisene.
|
| 2:11 |
: I asked Eric a variation of this question, but if you were dropped into a non-baseball field (table tennis? Opera singing?) that you didn’t have any content knowledge, what skills from scouting would help you identify traits that would develop well? What would your first steps be to educate yourself? |
| 2:12 |
: Obviously would need to learn as much as possible about the field
|
| 2:13 |
: But having some feel for looking for specific projectable traits
|
| 2:13 |
: And not getting bogged down in what it looks like right now |
| 2:13 |
: Would probably be useful
|
| 2:14 |
: How do you balance proximity to the big leagues with upside for lower level prospects when assigning FV grades? Does a toolsy, high performing 18 year old on the complex or 19 year old at A ball (or even 20 at high A) have a cap around a 50/55 because there are so many levels to go?
|
| 2:15 |
: For us, mostly. For scouts, no, when I was with the Pirates I put a few huge grades on complex/A-ball players. |
| 2:15 |
: And were I at FanGraphs at the time they’d have been 50/55’s
|
| 2:16 |
: Jonah Tong seems to be going through it at AAA. Is this more a command vs control issue, a dev. issue (3rd pitch) a la Liam Doyle — or just a sign that further adjustments are going to be needed if he’s on the best side of the starter/reliever line long-term?
|
| 2:17 |
: Same issues as in the preseason. Command isn’t good, doesn’t have a breaking ball.
|
| 2:17 |
: So it looks like the Mariners may call up Anderson this week. Given his AA results so far what can we expect from him at the MLB level?
|
| 2:18 |
: I expect him to be pretty good. I don’t think he’s an ace, but solid no. 3 right away seems in play.
|
| 2:19 |
: How long until Kendry Chourio is top pitching prospect in baseball?
|
| 2:19 |
: I don’t think he has that kind of ceiling. More of a polished, quick mover.
|
| 2:20 |
: Ryan Blake did an article on the Dodgers rotation being back on top without even a mention that River Ryan is waiting….do you believe we won’t even see him this year?
|
| 2:21 |
: He’s ready, at this point it seems clear that LAD is waiting for a natural opening, they’re not going to bump him just because he’s performing really well.
|
| 2:21 |
: Obviously a very good trade candidate
|
| 2:21 |
: Where have all the RH hitters gone?
|
| 2:21 |
: The IL
|
| 2:21 |
: The Marlins have so many interesting young arms. What are your thoughts on Adrian Pena, Jose Paulino, and Keyner Benitez specifically? Do you see any MLB SP there? What were Liomar Martinez and Kilfraidy Encarnacion?
|
| 2:21 |
: Let’s do some sneak peaks
|
| 2:22 |
: Pena: huge upside, lack of progress this year is a little concerning. To use Eric’s term, he’s still sushi raw
|
| 2:22 |
: Benitez I really liked, the injury is a huge bummer, seemed like he was finding his stride. Of the arms you asked about, he’s going to be the highest on the list. Slider looked very good
|
| 2:23 |
: Liomar: 80 curve, on the 35+/40 line
|
| 2:24 |
: Encarnacion is dropping to the HM’s because at some point you have to hit the barn
|
| 2:24 |
: Paulino is one of like 3-4 guys I still need to write up
|
| 2:25 |
: Speaking of the Marlins… any word on how Noble Meyer looked on his first rehab assignment and how serious the injury was that got him pulled from it?
|
| 2:25 |
: Stuff wise, he looked good. it’s only one inning but he was 95-97
|
| 2:26 |
: For a guy who’s lost a lot of velo since high school it was nice to see. Obviously we’ll want to see him hold that over more than one inning
|
| 2:26 |
: Are you concerned about jhonny level’s lack of walks following his promotion?
|
| 2:26 |
: I am not. He’s aggressive and it’s working out for him so far.
|
| 2:28 |
: Andrew Alvarez just crossed 50 IP, and has generated 1.2 fWAR so far. I’m assuming that you still have him as an up-and-down swingman, around replacement level. How long would he need to show success for you to reevaluate his arsenal?
|
| 2:28 |
: That was my read on him last summer, but he’s throwing a little harder this year, and for a guy with good command even a tick or two can be a big boon
|
| 2:29 |
: I’d be surprised if he’s this but I’d buy he’s a 40
|
| 2:29 |
: Do you still have a 45+ FV grade on Mike Sirota?
|
| 2:29 |
: No
|
| 2:29 |
: Are there any takeaways about what specific type of players are being affected most by the nutty minor league ball this year? i.e. hitters with fringy power who are now getting it over the wall? Joe Ryan types of fly ball pitchers? Was curious if you had a feel so far.
|
| 2:29 |
: I want to take a deeper look into this after the list cycle.
|
| 2:30 |
: Because I don’t think it’s just the homers
|
| 2:31 |
: The obvious ones are that guys without stuff are getting shelled, guys with fringy power are seeing their numbers tick up substantially
|
| 2:31 |
: Think back to 2019 and it’s kind of like that.
|
| 2:33 |
: As an evaluator, do you care about a player’s hand-size/finger length when it comes to pitching? Or is that sort of baked-in, in that the further up the ladder someone climbs, the more likely they’ll have the desirable traits?
|
| 2:33 |
: Were you the guy who asked about this in February?
|
| 2:34 |
: In general you’d rather have long than not but it’s not really the first thing I’m looking at…
|
| 2:34 |
: The Braves bumped Tate Southisene up to High-A but otherwise have left several position players at levels where they seem to be performing well. How would you be thinking about further mid season promotions?
|
| 2:34 |
: Matter of time before Guanipa, Hartman, Gil get pushed
|
| 2:35 |
: In the long run, it doesn’t really matter whether it happens on June 15th or July 24th, ya know?
|
| 2:36 |
: Dumb (and possibly unanswerable) question: What % of first round busts would you attribute to the player stalling out, talent-wise, vs. the organization failing to nurture that talent? I ask because it seems to me that first-round talent increasingly is recognized by the league, not just individual teams. So if you’re starting with a pool of players everybody agrees has the talent to succeed, their long-term success increasingly seems connected to organizational development skills, etc… Or not? Hence the question….
|
| 2:37 |
: Tough to put a percentage on it, obviously. Injuries are a big factor, and there’s some interplay between that and development
|
| 2:38 |
: And also, what are we defining as a bust?
|
| 2:38 |
: Hi Brendan! Do you have an easier go in the Seattle heatwaves because of all of the time spent in AZ?
|
| 2:39 |
: Yes, this is nothing
|
| 2:40 |
: With Vlad and Kaz around, is Sean Keys one of the Jays’ better deadline chips? Am assuming they gets lots of calls on King, Perry, Stanifer, Cates, Guerra…
|
| 2:41 |
: Thinking back to the Jays list, as far as trade value goes, I suspect he’s passed half of the names ahead of him or so. So, one of the better ones? Yes, but still behind a couple of the guys you mentioned, and also the A-ball shortstops and Nimmala
|
| 2:42 |
: Which of the Dodgers OF prospects do you think is mostly likely to get dealt?
|
| 2:42 |
: Most of them at some point.
|
| 2:42 |
: Hope if I had to name just one.
|
| 2:42 |
: My brother brought up the point the Brewers may wait to elevate Made for a bit so Fischer can adapt playing next to him. I figured players are relatively treated independently of each other in the minors. Is there a thing? Or, do they rise and fall on their own cooking independent of other roster moves, aside from positional depth charts?
|
| 2:43 |
: There may be some nice tertiary benefits to having guys play together but I don’t think this is a significant factor in either of their promotion timelines.
|
| 2:43 |
: Is Rickey Tiedemann ever going to pitch again?
|
| 2:43 |
: He pitched today!
|
| 2:44 |
: What team did you grow up rooting for?
|
| 2:44 |
: Mariners.
|
| 2:44 |
: I wrote a bunch for various Mariners blogs and if anybody can find and link to the first one I will… need to think of some sort of prize because I’d be shocked
|
| 2:45 |
: What is your take on the floor and ceiling on Ralphy Velazquez
|
| 2:45 |
: Floor: platoon bat with power Ceiling: All Star 1B |
| 2:46 |
: If you had a family friend who was a high school pitcher with a later round grade on them in the draft, which org would you be hoping took them?
|
| 2:46 |
: Mariners or Red Sox
|
| 2:46 |
: I haven’t been following what’s going on in the minors. What’s the TLDR? Sounds like the return of the home run fun ball?
|
| 2:47 |
: Below Triple-A offense, and homers in particular, have exploded
|
| 2:47 |
: Is there a reason to be concerned about Devin Fitz-Gerald’s slow start at AA after lighting up A+ at age 20?
|
| 2:47 |
: No
|
| 2:48 |
: I need to release one of my farm-system guys. Whose future is on the bench, and whose is a regular: JoJo Parker, Kevin Alvarez, or Enrique Bradfield?
|
| 2:49 |
: Sounds like you have a good farm system. I don’t know how badly you need the steals, Bradfield may not play enough to get the volume
|
| 2:49 |
: I am out of my element here
|
| 2:49 |
: Hoping the Brewers make a run at Skubal but really like Detmers as an alternative. Do you think the price for 2.5 years of Detmers will exceed that of a Skubal rental? Can the Brewers get either without giving up Pena, Made, Henderson?
|
| 2:49 |
: The first two aren’t going anywhere, I don’t think.
|
| 2:50 |
: Would you be that upset to lose Henderson if it meant getting Skubal for a WS push?
|
| 2:50 |
: You’re going to have to give up something
|
| 2:50 |
: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/authors/brendan-gawlowski “wrote a bunch of various mariners blogs” like this one? |
| 2:50 |
: That’s one of them
|
| 2:50 |
: I used to use the word ‘asinine’ a lot in ways that would probably be embarrassing to read now
|
| 2:51 |
: How crazy is the Devers trade in hindsight? The Red Sox killed it in the return but spent all their winnings on beer and booze shortly thereafter.
|
| 2:51 |
: It’s fascinating. One of the wilder trades in recent memory at the time and the fallout has been quite eventful very quickly
|
| 2:53 |
: Seems like the cut-fastball is in vogue in the majors this year a la the high ride 4S circa 2017. Is that same trend making its way into the minors too?
|
| 2:53 |
: I’m more noticing that a ton of guys have very deep arsenals
|
| 2:53 |
: The cutter is a component of that
|
| 2:53 |
: But I don’t know if it’s making the rounds in the same emphatic way that the high-rise 4S did, or the sweeper and split in subsequent years
|
| 2:54 |
: Can you explain who makes up the Complex Team? Is it the old Rookie Ball plus some injuries? Or is there a more liquid structure to it? Do they play themselves or other complexes? I never knew this to be a thing years ago.
|
| 2:54 |
: The international complex is almost always recent international signees
|
| 2:54 |
: Seth Hernandez was throwing down in Pittsburgh’s DSL instructs last year, which is the one notable exception I can think of
|
| 2:55 |
: On the domestic complexes, it’s mostly guys who were promoted from the DSL complex, along with a few high schoolers from the previous year’s draft.
|
| 2:55 |
: There are sometimes also a few orgs to fill out the roster
|
| 2:56 |
: Is there an organization or two you think is particularly skilled in evaluating other teams minor league talent?
|
| 2:56 |
: Rays
|
| 2:57 |
: Great pro eval group
|
| 2:57 |
: what’s the best place to find reliable MiLB SP schedules?
|
| 2:57 |
: There really isn’t a good one, unfortunately
|
| 2:58 |
: Even when I was scouting, I’d often text people from the org to find out what was coming up
|
| 2:58 |
: Do you grade a pitch purely based off of velo and movement characteristics, or are tunneling/sequencing incorporated? For example, is a changeup graded on its velocity separation and tunneling from the heater, or just off of spin killing and face-value speed?
|
| 3:00 |
: It’s a good question, and there’s a little bit of a sliding scale on that depending on how far away the player is. If it’s an 18 year old on the complex, I’m looking to see if he can kind of sort of get his change up to move. If he has good arm speed to sell it, great, but he probably won’t at that point, and if he does odds are it’s just a slow fastball.
|
| 3:00 |
: I wouldn’t say sequencing is a component of it
|
| 3:00 |
: There are times a guy’s arsenal works well together and is more than the sum of its parts, and that’s the kind of thing that can boost a topline grade but not necessarily the individual pitches
|
| 3:01 |
: I hope that answers the question, follow up if you have more
|
| 3:01 |
: Would it be worthwhile for a team to hire a handful of PIs to follow around the Rays pro scouts hoping to map out players of interest to the org?
|
| 3:01 |
: I’d rather they just hire scouts first
|
| 3:03 |
: Caleb Bonemer for Ryan Sloan straight up. Who says no?
|
| 3:03 |
: Both but I like Sloan more if that’s what you’re getting at
|
| 3:04 |
: To the 2nd part of my question, will 2.5 years of Detmers return more than a Skubal rental? Or does short-term elite talent trump all?
|
| 3:04 |
: I think it’d be pretty similar. One top 100 guy, a couple interesting pieces after that sounds right
|
| 3:04 |
: I’m curious how you understand a player who excels as a rookie but never again matches that level of production. Do you typically dismiss that initial run of success as simple randomness? Or do you buy that being the a decent approximation of the player’s temporary true-talent, but then the league adjusted and the player failed to counter-adjust?
|
| 3:05 |
: All things are possible here.
|
| 3:05 |
: Willie Bloomquist just got hot
|
| 3:06 |
: Michael Toglia stopped getting fastballs
|
| 3:06 |
: Karl Spooner got hurt
|
| 3:07 |
: How much time do you spend looking at graduated prospects and comparing their production to their projections? Love Eric’s how’s my driving pieces but curious how much that’s just an end of year thing vs a constant process. Thanks!
|
| 3:07 |
: A ton
|
| 3:07 |
: Constantly comparing what I wrote and what has played out
|
| 3:07 |
: And not just the graduates
|
| 3:08 |
: For example, I liked Alex Lodise and had him pretty high up on the Braves list
|
| 3:08 |
: He’s been just okay in A-ball
|
| 3:09 |
: there was real hit tool risk, and so I’m seeing that part… but also he doesn’t have as much present raw power as I thought he did, either.
|
| 3:10 |
: A miss and a learning experience
|
| 3:11 |
: I’m a huge NPB fan; I subscribe to a streaming service and watch a ton of games and have for 7-8 years. Despite this it’s mildly embarrassing how often I’m wrong about which guys will crush MLB and which will bust. As I’m watching pitchers/hitters and building my opinions, are there any things or classes of things I can try to watch that will give me actual insight into the challenges of making the jump to MLB?
|
| 3:11 |
: The cultural transition is a massive variable here, and one we don’t have much insight into
|
| 3:12 |
: Puts a ceiling on how good even the best teams/evaluators can be at making those predictions.
|
| 3:13 |
: How can you tell when a pitcher has two different grips (i.e. Roki’s splitter) versus elite manipulation of the same grip (i.e. Yamamoto’s splitter)?
|
| 3:13 |
: Freeze frames or talking to sources. Sometimes you get a bullpen where you can just about walk up next to the guy as he warms up and you may be able to see it in real time.
|
| 3:15 |
: Do you think the Brewers lab could take Ryne Nelson, instantly give him two secondaries and make him a stud?
|
| 3:16 |
: That seems ambitious, but I kinda wonder if he could pick up a split…
|
| 3:16 |
: Brandon Young real or no real?
|
| 3:16 |
: Running hot
|
| 3:16 |
: Should have clarified on the cut-fastball question – I don’t mean cutters specifically, but more the Justin Steele/Shohei/Ryan Feltner version where it’s still a 4S but with perceived or actual cut.
|
| 3:17 |
: Cut and carry is a desirable fastball shape, and teams target/try to develop it, but I think that’s been the case for awhile now.
|
| 3:18 |
: You could be on to something, maybe this is manifesting in a way I’m not quite perceiving
|
| 3:18 |
: Dylan dreiling and Hector Rodriguez Are both having decent seasons.. Are they platoon guys or regulars at some point?
|
| 3:18 |
: Platoon for me
|
| 3:18 |
: How can fielding so mis-judged from minors to majors? Thinking Luis Garcia Jr a few years ago getting a 55 field (as a SS!) couldn’t stick at 2nd and looks poor at first
|
| 3:18 |
: Like anything else, guys can improve or regress in unexpected ways.
|
| 3:19 |
: On the public side, fielding is tougher to evaluate than hitting or pitching
|
| 3:19 |
: We just don’t have the camera angles
|
| 3:20 |
: I can see that Brendan Jones is fast enough to play center, but I have to make an educated guess about the reads/routes
|
| 3:20 |
: If expansion happens, would there be both a a 40 man draft as well as a minor league draft? Like some version of a R5 but only for the two expansion teams?
|
| 3:20 |
: Probably? Would be fun as hell.
|
| 3:20 |
: The write up in the Red Sox list mentioned Franklin Primera has “well below-average bat speed.” Is this something that can be improved by coaching? Has that staff worked more magic or is this just a SSS?
|
| 3:21 |
: I would ask Eric about Primera specifically, he handled the complexes for that list.
|
| 3:21 |
: Guys can improve their bat speed, particularly at that age
|
| 3:21 |
: But you can also go off on the complex with a slow bat
|
| 3:21 |
: Hell you can go off in Triple-A with a slow bat
|
| 3:22 |
: ACL/FCL is never a large enough sample size but any standout or pop ups so far?
|
| 3:22 |
: Alexander Frias has my attention.
|
| 3:23 |
: Quite the turnaround for Juan Sanchez the past month or so. Anything different from him or that getting adjusted after a tough assignment? And as a result of the season to date are you any higher or lower on him?
|
| 3:24 |
: Looks like an acclimation period. Holding serve on the aggressive grade from the offseason list.
|
| 3:24 |
: This is one where, for us, that 40+ turns into a 45 or a 45+ and then a 50 if he keeps hitting on his way up the ladder
|
| 3:25 |
: How would you build out your farm if you were running an expansion team? Any particular demographic or archetype focuses? Quality v quantity approach?
|
| 3:25 |
: Best player available for starters
|
| 3:26 |
: As we get more comfortable in our knowledge of PD’s strengths, we can then shift to emphasizing specific attributes
|
| 3:26 |
: At a high level though, talent is talent
|
| 3:30 |
: Curious if you’ve heard anything new about Junieker Caceras. He’s on a hot streak that leaves him with a really impressive line for an 18 yr old.
|
| 3:31 |
: Really good hit tool, mature player. Measurable power isn’t up at all as far as I can see
|
| 3:31 |
: Top 100 long list type for us last winter, he’ll be in the conversation when we update but I suspect he won’t quite crack it
|
| 3:31 |
: Not especially projectable
|
| 3:33 |
: Does the Luis Lara contract extension take him off the table as a potential deadline trade chip? While it probably increases his actual value I assume it would be considered bad form to immediately trade him while the ink dries.
|
| 3:34 |
: Fascinating question, I suspect some teams will be mostly off him and others may value him even more now.
|
| 3:34 |
: Unique situation
|
| 3:34 |
: What’re your thoughts on Brendan Sorsby?
|
| 3:34 |
: Best for all parties that he’s going to the NFL
|
| 3:35 |
: Hopefully he has a good support system around him, gambling addictions are no joke
|
| 3:35 |
: Is Eli Willits the top prospect in all of baseball now?
|
| 3:35 |
: No
|
| 3:36 |
: He’s a very good one but I don’t even know if he goes 1:1 or 1:2 if we redraft
|
| 3:36 |
: Was thinking about the increased buzz connecting Vahn Lackey to the White Sox at 1-1 and was wondering if there ever is a case where you could justify current MLB needs factoring into 1-1 decisions (rather than just best available). I don’t think Kyle Teel is good or established enough for that to be a factor, but if they were, say, the Mariners and had an elite catcher locked in, would that be a reason to prefer Roch?
Or if a guy is special enough do you just take him and figure it out later |
| 3:36 |
: MLB team needs should not dictate 1:1 decision
|
| 3:37 |
: that’s a franchise altering pick
|
| 3:37 |
: you grab the best guy over the long haul there
|
| 3:37 |
: Franklin Arias up this year or next?
|
| 3:38 |
: September callup wouldn’t surprise me a bit at this point.
|
| 3:38 |
: Has Willits changed his eval much since being drafted? What has he improved the most to be in a “best prospect in baseball” discussion?
|
| 3:39 |
: I think he’s tracking very nicely and will inevitably rise up lists as he gets closer to the big leagues but I don’t think he’s suddenly grown into the kind of power that would prompt a re-eval
|
| 3:39 |
: Any sneak peak on Nate Payne
|
| 3:40 |
: Looks stronger this year, throwing a tick harder, stuff still a little soft. Backend ceiling, he’ll be a 35+
|
| 3:40 |
: after watching the Vegas games last week, I’m never trusting a hitter’s numbers that calls that stadium home
|
| 3:40 |
: Now let’s play a series in Greensboro
|
| 3:41 |
: What does the injury to Ethan Holliday do to his overall picture? Seems significant to lose a year at his age.
|
| 3:42 |
: It sucks but I don’t see this as career altering or anything
|
| 3:42 |
: Thoughts on MLB teams being able to trade draft picks more freely like the NFL, NBA, or NHL? I’ve heard it mentioned a few times in regard to the CBA negotiations
|
| 3:42 |
: I’d be in favor
|
| 3:42 |
: Most of the prospects I like are shortstops, but I know a lot of guys get their position moved before any call ups. Do you think guys like de Vries and Nimmala stick at SS?
|
| 3:43 |
: I’m still projecting them as shortstops but they’re not locks in the way that, like, Willits or Arias is
|
| 3:44 |
: More in the Emerson camp of “I think they can do it, I wouldn’t be shocked if something pushes them to third”
|
| 3:44 |
: What’s the deal with Greensboro? (Incidentally, that’s where Willits just crushed 4 HRs in his first week of A+)
|
| 3:44 |
: Short dimensions and the ball flies
|
| 3:45 |
: Do you think there is any validity to rumors that owners are worried about expansion because of the difficulty in finding 2 MLB organizations’ worth of pitchers?
|
| 3:45 |
: lol no
|
| 3:46 |
: Can I make my peace and move on from Adael Amador?
|
| 3:46 |
: deep sigh
|
| 3:46 |
: I’m staying in this pumpkin patch but I’m not gonna fault anybody for getting their candy elsewhere
|
| 3:47 |
: what order are these guys drafted present day: Chourio, Wood, Roman Anthony, Caminero
|
| 3:47 |
: Wood first for sure. Reasonable people can draw different conclusions after. I’d probably go Chourio-Anthony-Caminero
|
| 3:48 |
: I’m really not sure what to make of Kyle Karros. He’s half the hitter his old man was, but three times the fielder. On pace for >2 WAR as a corner infielder in Coors with below league average production at the plate.
|
| 3:48 |
: I don’t really buy him as more than a second division guy, maybe.
|
| 3:48 |
: Lara would potentially (?) be pretty pissed to be traded right after signing a long term deal, no?
|
| 3:48 |
: Maybe but not really a factor
|
| 3:49 |
: How hard is it to establish or change a strength of your development staff?
|
| 3:51 |
: Depends what it is. “we can build strength:” Should be apparent fairly quickly. “We have the secret sauce on developing the hit tool:” We’re gonna need to be patient on that one.
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| 3:51 |
: are you any good at Immaculate Grid?
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| 3:51 |
: Yes
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| 3:52 |
: Do you have any guys you think are dark horse/non obvious potential future number one prospects? Top5/10? Or just not a super useful exercise?
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| 3:52 |
: Elite athletes with volatile hit tools
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| 3:53 |
: Pirates a complete disaster this season. Lost half their playoff odds in 2 weeks. Time to rebuild the rebuild?
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| 3:53 |
: It’s never as good as it looks when you’re winning, it’s never as bad as it looks when you’re losing.
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| 3:54 |
: Justin Krupp’s earlier question hit on something I’ve always felt…need a prospect grade for “if it goes well” and one for “how likely”. Mashing together a 24yo at AAA and an 18yo in A seems like a bad system.
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| 3:55 |
: There is no perfect system. Regardless if you want to use Eric’s FV model, Theo Epstein’s A-D, a conventional 20-80, or WAR or whatever, you’re still dealing with the same problems of proximity and volatility.
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| 3:56 |
: If you gave guys two grades, those tradeoffs don’t go away
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| 3:56 |
: Sell out to the scale you have, imo. You’ll learn to interpret the nuances.
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| 3:57 |
: The projection systems still don’t buy the White Sox as a playoff team. Do you?
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| 3:57 |
: If I had to bet yes or no I would say no but not with any real conviction.
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| 3:57 |
: The AL is not good
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| 3:57 |
: Following up on the elite athletes with volatile hit tools – how much of a scary hit eval tends to be mechanical/approach/etc vs just like bad hand eye? If that’s a thing at all, how much can you tease it out? Awesome chat today, huge thanks.
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| 3:58 |
: Depends on the player. Some guys have swings/motor preferences that are going to make it tough for them to hit. Others don’t seem to have the requisite hand eye.
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| 3:59 |
: The approach is a weird one, because a guy succeeding with a bad approach is itself a sign that there’s a good hit tool in there somewhere.
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| 3:59 |
: Florentino seems to be struggling in Greensboro. Any intel on him?
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| 3:59 |
: Teenager in High-A. It’s an adjustment.
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| 3:59 |
: If he’s doing this in August still let’s circle back.
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| 4:00 |
: I’m gonna shut it down here today, I gotta get back to the Feesh. Thanks as always for stopping by.
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