The Minnesota Vikings signed quarterback Kyler Murray in March, and three months later, some traction suggests he could be a dark horse for the NFL MVP award in 2026.
Vikings fans will be content with Murray playing well enough to reach the postseason and win a playoff game, two, or a few, but NFL.com insists that Murray cannot be ruled out of the MVP race.
Vikings’ Offense Gives Murray a Real Stat-Friendly Setup
Dan Parr: Murray Is an MVP Dark Horse
Parr of NFL.com sized up nine MVP dark horses, and Murray showed up on the list at No. 8, one spot ahead of Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson and seven spots below dark horse “frontrunner” Brock Purdy, the San Francisco 49ers’ quarterback.
He explained, “We saw what Kevin O’Connell did with a reclamation project two years ago, when he flipped the career arc of Sam Darnold by helping him become a Pro Bowl QB (and earn a few points in the MVP voting) in his lone season with Minnesota. Now I’m fascinated to see what the QB guru can do with Murray, who’s looking for the O’Connell bump after cratering in Arizona.”
“He still has to beat out 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy for the starting job, but if Murray’s able to tap back into the dual-threat ability that earned him consecutive Pro Bowl trips a few years ago (2020-2021), it shouldn’t be much of a competition. While it might not pop off every corner of the page, the supporting cast in Minnesota looks strong on paper, led by one of the league’s top players in WR Justin Jefferson.”
No Vikings — or any non-quarterback — has won the award since 2012. It’s time.
Parr continued, “If Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings stay healthy, that could be a tough trio of pass catchers for defenses to match up against. The offensive line is solid, anchored by LT Christian Darrisaw. They’re not the most dynamic at tight end (T.J. Hockenson) or running back (Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason), but all in all, it’s a respectable group. Murray has demonstrated a propensity for making defenses look silly.”
“He was doing it not too long ago, albeit too infrequently. If O’Connell helps him unlock peak form, the Vikings could be surprise contenders in the NFC North, and the heat from the QB’s MVP campaign might turn snowmen into puddles across Minneapolis next winter.”
Well, the Career Production Is There
It might feel like a really bold take in June to proclaim Murray as an MVP candidate, but a peek under the hood of his career production shows that it wouldn’t be strange at all if he nibbled at contention.
Every starts 17, Murray averages this stat line:
— 3,997 Passing Yards
— 623 Rushing Yards
— 24 Passing TDs
— 6 Rushing TDs
— 12 INTs
— 67.1 Completion %
And those numbers are with sometimes poor Cardinals teams that were limited by suspect defense. If one assumes that Murray experiences a statistical bump upon arriving in Minnesota, well, his statistics would absolutely mandate MVP consideration, not unlike Darnold’s 2024 pit stop in the Twin Cities.
Just Stay Healthy?
Here’s the kicker for Murray to be truly viewed as an MVP candidate: his availability.
Since 2019, when Arizona picked Murray with the first overall pick, he has missed 26% of all games to injury. That percentage could be slightly inflated because of his “soft benching” by the Cardinals in 2025, or so goes the theory, but as a whole, Murray usually misses about a quarter of all starts.
It would be tricky for Murray to be classified as an MVP candidate while, for example, playing 13 games in 2026. He could miss a game or two, but MVP voters evaluate health as well, since availability is a factor in value.
Therefore, Murray has a mission: stay healthy, play efficiently in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and let Brian Flores’s defense take care of the rest — as it usually does.
The Real Frontrunners
Back to reality, these are the true leaders in the MVP race with the regular season less than three months away:
- Josh Allen: +550
- Lamar Jackson: +650
- Justin Herbert: +1000
- Joe Burrow: +1000
- Patrick Mahomes: +1000
- Drake Maye: +1100
- Dak Prescott: +1300
- Caleb Williams: +1400
- Matthew Stafford: +1400
- Jordan Love: +1500
- Jayden Daniels: +2000
Maye and Stafford battled to the very end in 2025, with Stafford prevailing by a whisker. Sportsbooks believe Allen is due to win the award for a second time.
Murray was in the mix to win the MVP award in 2021, but the league ultimately honored Aaron Rodgers during his penultimate season in Green Bay.
