Tommy Paul of the United States is going for his second Queen’s Club title against a familiar foe in Argentine Francisco Cerundolo on Sunday in what promises to be a battle royale. Paul previously lifted the trophy in 2024.
(8) Tommy Paul vs. (7) Francisco Cerúndolo
Let’s start with the obvious, which is that Paul has been the best player in this HSBC Championships draw. He is on a nine-match winning streak at Queen’s Clubb, he is one of only three men to reach 30 tour-level wins this year (the other two being Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev), and he took Ugo Humbert apart 6-3, 6-3 in 77 minutes on Saturday. Paul won the title in 2024, sat out last year hurt, and has clearly decided that he would like it back.
But it’s not all good news for Paul. Francisco Cerundolo owns this matchup. The Argentine leads the head-to-head series 5-2, he has won the last two meetings, and the part that should make Paul fans squirm is that one of those wins came at Queen’s Club in 2023. Then he beat Paul again in the Eastbourne final a week later. Don’t let the fact that he’s from Argentina fool you. Cerundolo isn’t your standard clay-court grinder. He knows how to play on grass and even pocketed the Eastbourne title in 2023.
Here’s where I land: the Argentine has worked much harder than Paul has, with three-set matches in all but one round. The fresher man with the better grass pedigree and the cleaner serve should win. On the other hand, I have picked against Cerundolo in the last two rounds and been wrong — so I don’t want to underestimate him. I just can’t ignore the fact that the American has been the better player all week.
Look for Paul to grind out the title the hard way.
Cheryl pick: Paul in 3
Ricky pick: Paul in 3