Paraguay vs Australia World Cup 2026 Predictions and Best Bets

Paraguay vs Australia | Group D, Matchday 15 | World Cup 2026

Date: Thursday, 25 June 2026

Kick-off: 19:00 local (02:00 BST, 26 June)

Venue: Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara), USA

TV/Streaming (UK): ITV / ITVX

What’s At Stake

Both Paraguay and Australia arrive at Levi’s Stadium locked on three points apiece after two Group D matches, separated only by goal difference, with the United States already through at the top. A win for either side almost certainly guarantees a place in the Round of 32; a draw could be enough depending on the Turkey result, while a defeat likely ends one team’s tournament. This is a straight knockout game in everything but name, and the pressure is real on both benches.

Verdict

Australia are a narrow favourite to take all three points at 3/1, but Paraguay’s defensive resilience and motivation to advance make the draw at 5/4 the standout pick in this Paraguay vs Australia prediction. Under 2 goals at 4/6 reflects the low-scoring nature of both sides’ competitive record and is the value play for the goals market.

Paraguay vs Australia Match Preview

Paraguay’s World Cup 2026 campaign has mirrored the arc of their qualifying run, grinding out narrow wins when composure is required and shipping heavy defeats when faced with elite opposition. A 4-1 opening loss to the United States was alarming, but Gustavo Alfaro’s side responded with a disciplined, low-block 1-0 win over Turkey at this very stadium, showing a clear capacity to absorb pressure and punish on the counter. That pragmatic approach makes them genuinely awkward opponents for any team that needs to attack.

Australia, guided by Tony Popovic in his first World Cup as head coach, put in their best performance of the group stage against Turkey, winning 2-0 with a composed, structured display. The 0-2 defeat to the United States that followed underlined the gap at the top of this group, but the Socceroos showed they can compete against sides of similar standing. Three points here would represent a strong platform for a deep run.

The question shaping this match is whether Australia can break down a Paraguay side that gave up just one goal in their last four qualifying matches combined. Alfaro’s defensive shape has been the foundation of everything, and with Australia needing a positive result rather than necessarily a win, Popovic may opt to be measured rather than expansive. An absorbing, tight contest seems likely.

Team Form

Paraguay – Last 5 Results

Turkey (A): Won 1-0 (World Cup 2026)
United States (A): Lost 1-4 (World Cup 2026)
Nicaragua (H): Won 4-0 (Friendly)
Morocco (N): Lost 1-2 (Friendly)
Greece (A): Won 1-0 (Friendly)

Paraguay’s competitive form tells the clearest story. The 1-0 victory over Turkey was their third win in a competitive match by a single goal in recent months, reinforcing Alfaro’s preference for structure over spectacle. The 4-1 defeat to the United States was exceptional context, coming against a co-host side with home atmosphere advantage, and should not define how this group sees Paraguay’s defensive credentials.

Australia – Last 5 Results

United States (A): Lost 0-2 (World Cup 2026)
Turkey (H): Won 2-0 (World Cup 2026)
Switzerland (N): Drew 1-1 (Friendly)
Mexico (N): Lost 0-1 (Friendly)
Curacao (H): Won 5-1 (FIFA Series)

Australia’s qualifying record of four wins from four, including a 1-0 result over Japan and a 2-1 win away to Saudi Arabia, demonstrated real competitive substance. The loss to the United States was largely comfortable for the hosts; Popovic will take encouragement from the Turkey win and expect his side to dictate terms against a Paraguay team sitting deep.

Paraguay vs Australia Head to Head

These sides have met five times, all friendlies, with Australia holding the better record from those encounters. Australia won 1-0 in October 2010, and the two sides drew 1-1 in October 2006. Three earlier meetings in June 2000 produced two goalless draws and a 2-1 Australia win. Paraguay have not beaten Australia in any of their five previous meetings, making this a first-ever competitive fixture between the two nations.

The Paraguay vs Australia head to head record is therefore modest and all pre-dates the modern era of both programmes, but the pattern of low-scoring, tight encounters holds across the series. Three of the five meetings finished with one goal or fewer, pointing to a similar dynamic when the sides have met at this level of preparation.

Team News

Paraguay head into this fixture with notable continuity from the Turkey win. Captain Gustavo Gomez remains the anchor of the defence, bringing 89 caps of experience to a backline that kept a clean sheet in the previous Group D match. Miguel Almiron, with 76 caps and 10 international goals, provides the creative threat in midfield, while Julio Enciso and Antonio Sanabria offer Alfaro genuine variety in attack. Youngster Diego Gomez of Brighton and Hove Albion adds energy in the middle of the park.

Australia have Connor Metcalfe and Nestory Irankunda already on the scoresheet at this tournament, giving Popovic productive contributors across the squad. Jackson Irvine, with 82 caps and 14 international goals, leads the midfield and will be central to any sustained attacking play. Mathew Ryan, earning his 104th cap, provides composure behind a defence that has shipped just two goals in two World Cup matches. Veteran forward Mathew Leckie, with 80 caps and 14 goals, remains a pressing outlet.

There are no confirmed significant injuries or suspensions reported for either side ahead of this match.

Predicted Lineups

Predicted XI (4-4-2): G. Fernandez; J.J. Caceres, G. Gomez (c), J. Alonso, G. Velazquez; R. Sosa, A. Cubas, M. Almiron, D. Gomez; J. Enciso, A. Sanabria

Predicted XI – squads to be confirmed.

Predicted XI (4-3-3): M. Ryan; M. Degenek, H. Souttar, A. Circati, J. Bos; J. Irvine (c), A. O’Neill, C. Metcalfe; A. Mabil, N. Irankunda, M. Leckie

Predicted XI – squads to be confirmed.

Key Tactical Matchup

The contest between Miguel Almiron in Paraguay’s midfield and Australia’s central pairing of Jackson Irvine and Aiden O’Neill shapes everything. Almiron, 32, with 76 caps and 10 international goals, is Paraguay’s most dynamic creative presence and will look to find pockets of space between Australia’s lines. Irvine and O’Neill are industry midfielders who defend their shape well, but Almiron’s ability to drift into the half-spaces could stretch their cover. If Alfaro’s side can channel attacks through Almiron and expose the gap behind Australia’s advancing full-backs, Paraguay have a genuine route to goal against a side that will need to push forward to secure the three points they require.

Best Bets

The Paraguay vs Australia betting tips below are grounded in the group stage mathematics and the tactical profile of both sides.

Main Pick: Draw @ 5/4
Both sides need points from this match, and neither can afford the risk of chasing a game they have conceded. Paraguay’s defensive record in competitive fixtures – clean sheets against Turkey and Greece, and a 0-0 draw at home to Ecuador in qualifying – points to a team that is very difficult to break down when organised. Australia have the attacking resource to threaten, but three of Paraguay’s last four competitive wins have been by a single goal, and a draw keeps both sides in contention. The 5/4 available represents fair value for what projects as a tense, balanced encounter.

Goals Market: Under 2 Goals @ 4/6
Five of Paraguay’s last six qualifying matches produced two goals or fewer, and their World Cup 2026 results have both come in under two goals in competitive terms when stripping out the co-host loss. Australia scored two in each of their wins but were shut out by the United States. The head to head record also features three meetings that ended with one goal or fewer. Under 2 goals at 4/6 reflects the structure of this fixture accurately.

Scorer Market: Antonio Sanabria to Score Anytime
Sanabria carries 48 caps and 7 international goals and operates as Paraguay’s central striker in Alfaro’s system. He is the focal point of Paraguay’s attacking shape and, if the Guaranies find the net here, Sanabria is the most likely beneficiary of the direct approach Alfaro deploys. Check leading operators for the best available price.

Bet Builder: Draw + Under 2 Goals
Combining the draw and under 2 goals markets into a single bet builder reinforces the core thesis of this preview. Both teams are structured, competitive, and under pressure to avoid defeat. The head to head record backs this reading, with three of five meetings producing two goals or fewer. This combination offers a combined price worth exploring at leading operators.

Odds Across Operators

The best available prices on the three-way match result market, sourced from leading operators:

Outcome	Best Price
Paraguay Win	2/1
Draw	5/4
Australia Win	3/1

Over/Under 2 goals: Over 5/4, Under 4/6. Prices sourced from leading operators and subject to change.

How to Watch + How to Bet

How to Watch

Paraguay vs Australia is live in the UK on ITV and streaming free on ITVX. Kick-off is at 02:00 BST on Friday, 26 June 2026. Australian viewers can watch on SBS and Optus Sport.

How to Bet

To place a bet on Paraguay vs Australia, follow these steps with your chosen licensed operator:

1. Log in to your account or register if you are a new customer.
2. Navigate to the Football or World Cup 2026 section.
3. Search for Paraguay vs Australia under Group D fixtures.
4. Select your preferred market – match result, goals, or scorer.
5. Enter your stake in the bet slip.
6. Review your selection and confirm the odds before placing.
7. Check the bet builder tool if combining multiple selections from the same match.
8. Gamble responsibly and within your means.

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