And just like that, Wimbledon 2026 is upon us. The ATP and WTA Tours have had close to a month on grass now, so it’s time for the main event in London. With the draw released just hours ago and the first ball flying first-thing on Monday, there’s plenty of betting action to be had.
I dig into the latest betting markets and analyze where the value is heading into Wimbledon this year. Are the heavy favorites worth a bet? Which dark horses could make a deep run? Which early-round matches look promising? Read on for a full breakdown of my Wimbledon value bets and tennis betting tips across the men’s and women’s singles events.
Note that the bookmakers odds change constantly.
Men’s Wimbledon best bets and tips
- Taylor Fritz to make the final @ 12.00 (+1100)
- Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon @ 6.50 (+550)
- Ben Shelton to reach the semi-finals @ 3.50 (+250)
First thing’s first: Jannik Sinner at 1.50 (-200) is the shortest Grand Slam favorite we’ve seen all year. With Carlos Alcaraz sidelined by a wrist injury, there’s a chasm between the defending champion and the rest of the men’s draw. Nobody’s getting rich betting on Sinner here – even if he wins without dropping a set, which isn’t out of the question.
So where’s the value? In the bottom half. That’s where I’m looking, and that’s where the draw has been the kindest.
Taylor Fritz has been the best grass-court player in the world this month I reckon. He reached back-to-back finals in Stuttgart and Halle, beating Alexander Zverev, Shelton and Zizou Bergs along the way. His 6-1 record on grass this season sits on top of a Tour-leading 43 grass-court wins this decade. Nobody active, aside from Djokovic, has more titles on the surface.
The draw has done Fritz a massive favor too. He’s the sixth seed, placed in the bottom half away from Sinner and Djokovic. His projected quarter-final opponent? Zverev – a player Fritz has beaten seven straight times, including at Wimbledon in 2024 and just last week in Halle. The Roland Garros champion has never been past the fourth round at SW19 and went out in the first round here last year.
Navigate that – and I think he does – and Fritz would face either Alex de Minaur or Shelton in the semi-final, both beatable opponents for a player in his kind of form. His serve is firing, his forehand does damage on low-bouncing grass, and at 12.00 to reach the final, I’m backing him.
My second pick is one that’ll raise eyebrows: Djokovic to win his eighth Wimbledon title at 6.50 (+550). Yes, he’s 39. Yes, he lost to Joao Fonseca at Roland Garros. But this is Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon, a venue where he’s won seven times and knows every blade of grass like the back of his hand.
His draw is manageable enough. Wu Yibing in the first round, then Stefanos Tsitsipas or Hugo Gaston in the second. Arthur Rinderknech in the third. The fourth round could bring Andrey Rublev or Fonseca – a test, but not one beyond Djokovic, particularly on grass. He’d face Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-final most likely, then Sinner in the semis.
Here’s the thing: Djokovic beat Sinner at the Australian Open this year. He blew a two-set lead against Fonseca at Roland Garros, sure, but that way on clay. The Serb gets a big boost on this surface. He’s chasing a 25th Grand Slam title and if he didn’t believe he could win this, he wouldn’t be here.
At 6.50, I’m willing to back the greatest grass-court player of his generation (and all time?) to produce one more run on the surface he’s owned for over a decade.
Finally, Shelton at 3.50 (+250) to reach the semi-finals is a bet that just makes more sense to me. The fourth seed won in Stuttgart earlier this month – his first grass-court title – and has the kind of game that translates brilliantly to this surface. His serve is huge. His forehand is aggressive. And his draw to the last four is manageable.
Shelton opens against qualifier Otto Virtanen and could face Jakub Mensik or Arthur Fils in the fourth round. He’s seeded to meet de Minaur in the quarter-final – a player who’s been inconsistent all season and came into the grass swing off a surprise loss at Queen’s.
At 3.50 for a fourth seed whose game is built for fast courts, this looks like a comfortable path to the semi-finals. What happens after that is another story – but the price to get him there is good.
Bren’s hot tip for Wimbledon 2026
Frances Tiafoe to win the tournament @ 67.00 (+6600)
Tiafoe just won Halle – the biggest title of his career and his first on grass. He beat Fritz in the final without facing a single break point, and took out three top-10 players for the first time at an event. It’s safe to say the 17th seed is playing the best tennis of his life right now.
His serve was lethal in Germany. He struck eight aces in the final alone and won an absurd percentage of first-serve points all week. That kind of serving wins matches on grass before the rallies even start.
At 67.00 this is a longshot, no question. But the Halle champion heading into Wimbledon with momentum and a game that can trouble anyone on this surface? If there’s one player capable of blowing up the bottom half of the draw, it’s Tiafoe in this form.
More on Tiafoe and his racquet.
Betting Sites for Wimbledon
Women’s Wimbledon value bets and tips
- Elena Rybakina to win the tournament @ 6.50 (+550)
- Mirra Andreeva to reach the semi-finals @ 5.00 (+400)
- Emma Raducanu to reach the quarter-finals @ 12.00 (+1100)
Aryna Sabalenka is the world No 1 and favorite to win at 4.33 (+333). Wimbledon is the only major she hasn’t won, though she’s been a three-time semi-finalist at the All England Club. The case for backing her is clear.
But I’m not biting at that price. Sabalenka’s had a rocky few months. She struggled through the clay season, and more importantly, she was beaten by Jessica Pegula on Berlin’s grass just two weeks ago. The women’s draw is wide open this year, and I reckon value sits elsewhere.
Rybakina is my pick. The 2022 champion is the second seed, drawn in the bottom half away from Sabalenka, and her game is tailor-made for grass. She’s got one of the biggest serves in women’s tennis, hits flat and clean from the baseline, and moves better than she ever has.
Her quarter features Amanda Anisimova – last year’s finalist – as her projected opponent in the last eight. But Anisimova’s form has been patchy since beating Andreeva in Dubai back in February, and she lost to Iva Jovic at Queen’s. Beyond that, Rybakina’s path to the final looks clear.
She won the Australian Open in January and Stuttgart on clay in April. She’s playing with the confidence of a player who knows she can win majors. At 5.50 for a former champion on what is her best surface, I love this bet.
My second pick is the Roland Garros champion, Mirra Andreeva, to reach the semi-finals at 5.00 (+400). The 19-year-old has gone from a prospect to a Grand Slam winner in the space of a year, and her game suits all surfaces.
Andreeva is the fifth seed, drawn in Sabalenka’s quarter. Her path to the last four runs through the bottom section of that quarter, meaning she’d likely face Karolina Muchova ahead of a possible quarter-final against Sabalenka.
If she does meet the world No 1, Sabalenka hasn’t looked right lately. And Andreeva, riding the high of a first major title, will back herself against anyone. Her odds have already shortened considerably as the grass swing progressed. At 5.00 for the semi-finals, there’s value in backing a player whose confidence is at an all-time high.
Finally, Raducanu at 12.00 (+1100) to reach the quarter-finals is my pick for those after a value punt. The 30th seed just reached the Queen’s Club final on home soil and is in the kind of form that makes her a nightmare draw for anyone.
She’s in Sabalenka’s quarter, likely facing the top seed in the third round. That’s a tough ask on paper. But Raducanu gave Sabalenka a real scare at Wimbledon last year, and the world No 1’s form has slipped since then. A third-round upset would set Raducanu up for a fourth-round match she’d be expected to win, putting her into the quarter-finals.
The British crowd on Centre Court will be brilliant. At 12.00 for a former Grand Slam champion who’s hitting form at exactly the right time, this is a bet I’m happy to have in my back pocket.
Bren’s hot tip for Wimbledon 2026
Elina Svitolina to reach the semi-finals @ 7.00 (+600)
The eighth seed is a two-time Wimbledon semi-finalist, and she’s drawn in Iga Swiatek’s quarter. That’s key. Swiatek won the title last year with a 6-0, 6-0 demolition of Anisimova, but hasn’t looked close to that level since. The Pole’s form has been shaky and her confidence isn’t where it was 12 months ago.
Svitolina thrives here. No active player has matched her consistency at Wimbledon in the second week. Her defensive game frustrates opponents on grass and she has the variety to go deep.
If Swiatek stumbles – and recent form suggests she could – Svitolina is positioned perfectly to take advantage. At around 7.00 for the semi-final, this is a smart play.