If the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to return to the playoffs in 2026 and have any chance of doing anything when they get there, they are going to need a lot of things to go right.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers having something left in the tank is at the top of that list.
The improvement of the offense under new head coach Mike McCarthy, and with some new playmakers at wide receiver, will also be a factor.
But they are also going to need more from a defense that badly underachieved in 2025 given its price tag. That improvement is going to have to start with that unit’s highest-paid and most important player, T.J. Watt.
But now that he is entering his age-32 season, there is some concern as to whether or not he can still be that type of game-changer.
Can Steelers’ T.J. Watt return to being an elite player?
On June 25, longtime CBS Sports NFL writer Pete Prisco released his annual top 100 NFL players ranking, and it included only two Steelers, with defensive lineman Cam Heyward at No. 39 and Watt … all the way down at No. 88.
That is a shocking fall for Watt who has been one of the league’s best players from the moment he arrived. As recently as last season, he ranked No. 11 on Prisco’s list, and has now gone down 77 spots in just a matter of one year.
When you look at Watt’s actual impact in 2025 (and even going back to 2024), it is not hard to see why.
Over the past two years, Watt has accounted for 18.5 sacks (combined), including only seven during the 2025 season. That is the worst two-year stretch of Watt’s career and has also come with an equally sharp drop in tackles for loss and quarterback hits.
He’s still good. He’s still productive. He just hasn’t been dominant. And given his price tag and importance, the Steelers need him to be dominant.
What does dominant look like from a production standpoint?
Well, let’s just look at Watt’s career 17-game averages. Even including his past two years where things have dropped off for him, he has averaged 14.5 sacks, five forced fumbles and 17 tackles for loss per 17 games played (via Football-Reference).
So let’s just set a benchmark of 14 sacks, four forced fumbles and 15 tackles for loss.
Are those attainable numbers for a 32-year-old edge=rusher?
History says not likely.
The only two players since 1999 that have ever exceeded that trio of numbers at age 32 or older are Robert Mathis (2013 at age 32) and Khalil Mack (2023 at age 32).
Even if you bump those numbers down 12 sacks, three forced fumbles and 14 tackles for loss, the list of players at age 32 or older only expands to four names: the aforementioned Mathis and Mack seasons, as well as Leonard Little (age 32 in 2006) and Michael Strahan (age 32 in 2003).
(All historical data via the Pro-Football-Reference StatHead Database)
While those might seem like arbitrary numbers to reach, they are the numbers and standard that Watt has set for himself. He has not reached them the past two seasons. Each year he gets older makes it seem less and less likely he is able to get back there.