College basketball’s ACC/SEC Challenge is headlined in part by a showdown between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday night at Rupp Arena in Kentucky. It is a blue-blood battle between two teams that are ranked in the top 25. The Tar Heels (6-1) come in at No. 16, while the Wildcats (5-2) are No. 18.
Let’s dive into my North Carolina vs. Kentucky predictions.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Kentucky Wildcats odds
Money line: North Carolina +265 / Kentucky -345
Spread: North Carolina +7.5 (-110) / Kentucky -7.5 (-110)
Total: Over 161.5 (-110) / Under 161.5 (-110)
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Kentucky Wildcats pick: North Carolina +7.5 (-110)
There are not a whole lot of data points from which to draw in the very early stages of the 2025-26 campaign, but there are definitely a couple to note — including one common opponent. North Carolina has faced two Power 4 foes. The Tar Heels knocked off Kansas 87-74 in Chapel Hill on November 7 before losing a neutral-site game against Michigan State 74-58 on Thanksgiving Day. The Wildcats have also run into two Power 4 opponents, including Michigan State. UK fell to the Spartans 83-66 at a neutral location on November 18 and it also suffered a 96-88 setback at Louisville on November 11.
In other words, bad things have happened whenever the ‘Cats have been tested. Head coach Mark Pope’s squad boasts plenty of talent, but its defense has failed to show up against top teams — allowing 179 combined points to Michigan State and Louisville. What’s especially alarming is that the Wildcats got out-rebounded by MSU 42 to 28. UNC also got out-rebounded by the Spartans, albeit by seven rather than by 14. Caleb Wilson and Luka Bogavac went a combined 1-for-9 from three-point range in that game and the team overall was 4-for-23 from deep. That’s something you might not see again this entire season. The Tar Heels should be much better offensively against a Wildcat defense that has struggled. Count on the visitors keeping this ACC/SEC matchup close — if not even winning it outright.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Kentucky Wildcats pick: Under 61.5 (-110)
This play correlates nicely with North Carolina against the spread, as the underdogs have a better chance of staying within the necessary margin if the game is relatively low scoring. And it should be. Neither one of these teams has been playing especially fast so far this season. UNC ranks No. 109 in the nation in pace of play at 74.2 possessions per game; UK is No. 122 in that department at 73.9 possessions per contest.
Nobody on Kentucky’s roster is scoring more than 14.0 ppg (Denzel Aberdeen). The team’s assist-to-turnover ratio is worse than 2-to-1 (20.6 assists, 10.6 turnovers per outing). Wilson (19.9 ppg) can fill it up for Carolina, but as a whole this team does not shoot well from the perimeter. Head coach Hubert Davis’ club comes in with a 31.8 three-point shooting percentage. Both teams are athletic enough to defend the paint effectively and force outside shots, which will likely lead to plenty of misses on Tuesday.