The Steelers were off to an excellent start this season, sitting at the top of the AFC North division before a recent saw them lose four of their last six games, free falling from first place. Oddsmakers were not convinced about their performance at the time and Pittsburgh has further fallen from favoritism since. They are pegged as a long shot to win the Super Bowl with odds at +12,500, down nearly 5,000 from one month ago. This implies they are a longshot, when we consider how they have played so far this season: and the games they have on the horizon.
The recent years have not been fruitful for an organization once called “Blitzburgh” even though they came into the season with a joint record for the most successful franchise in the NFL. The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season, when head coach Mike Tomlin led them to the AFC Championship. Since, it’s been one disappointing season after another, despite reaching the postseason five out of the last eight seasons since.
Because of these early exits, Pittsburgh aggressively upgraded its talent this offseason. General manager Omar Khan filled needs and acquired players that were innately Steelers material. The most talked-about of those additions is future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers, who also promised to turn things around.
Yet, those fortunes now look bleak.
The offseason overhaul hasn’t worked
In a bid to become more competitive, Pittsburgh aggressively restructured the team during the offseason.
The team traded for veteran wide receiver D.K. Metcalf and tight end Jonnu Smith, plus traded away WR George Pickens to rebalance the offense. Defensively, the team added five‑time Pro Bowl DB Jalen Ramsey and former Pro Bowl DB Darius Slay to the secondary. Rookie DL Derrick Harmon and Yahya Black were also selected in the NFL Draft to bolster the run defense. Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt were each handed healthy extensions to their contract.
With quarterback lingering as the biggest question mark, the Steelers added Aaron Rodgers, a four-time NFL Most Valuable Player and future Hall-of-Famer, to a one-year contract.
And somehow, none of it has paid off.
What went wrong?
The actual upside of the Steelers should’ve been higher considering statistics from Steelers Nation Radio, which showed that Pittsburgh was 25% more offensive last season than the previous year. This was achieved without an elite quarterback. The arrival of Rodgers and Metcalf created an atmosphere where fans expected the efficiency of the team to climb further and defy the low expectations of previous seasons.
While the Steelers offense has been better than those previous campaigns, it hasn’t been stellar enough to get over their own hump: and that’s without considering the shortcomings of the defense.
It would seem the Steelers hopes are dwindling, and there is one place this is reflected clearly — sports betting odds. When you look at the more robust sites listed on AskGamblers, one of the web’s most recognizable comparison sites, you can see that the Steelers’ betting profile involves moderate expectations at best. Those expectations get worse now that the schedule tightens up heading into December.
Six games remaining
Sitting on a 6-5 record, tied with the Baltimore Ravens but behind them due to tiebreakers, the Steelers would need to win at least four of their final six remaining games to have hopes at a postseason berth. Even then, the outlook is perilous, as proven by a 10-7 Seattle Seahawks squad in 2024, who still missed the playoffs with double-digit wins.
Looking around a competitive AFC, it’s unlikely more than one team makes it out of the division.
In this scenario, the only playoff-eligible team would be the one who wins AFC North. The Steelers could control their own destiny by sweeping a surging 6-5 Ravens team that’s won its last five games. They’ll get their first crack at doing so after hosting the 7-4 Buffalo Bills this Sunday at Acrisure Stadium.
The Bills have had their own share of inconsistency as of late, dropping losses to teams with losing records such as the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans. If the Steelers can pickup a home victory, it would go a long way in boosting their confidence before heading to Baltimore in Week 14. The Steelers would then host a currently 4-7 Miami Dolphins team before traveling for the next two, against a juggernaut 7-4 Detroit Lions and tough road contest against their division rival Cleveland Browns.
It would all sew up nicely for a final week clash for AFC North supremacy, at home, against the Ravens.
Can the Steelers prove the doubters wrong
It is clear that the bookmakers’ view is based on how things ended last season, and the current free fall this season. The Steelers’ inconsistency may suggest they could beat the odds, but they’ll have to limit turnovers and play better on both sides of the ball down the home stretch.
The new weapons on the team have started to click and if Rodgers remains healthy and the rest play their parts, the underachiever script could flip.