DFS Picks Week 14
Hey all, and welcome to Week 14! The QB model performed well-ish in Week 13. QB2, Jacoby Brissett, was the highest-scoring QB. As predicted, it was a bit of a down week in terms of scoring as Brissett only put up 23.64 DraftKings points, but that was good enough for the top spot. Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield ended up not being in play as the Steelers held the Bills in check for an entire half, and the Bucs were able to utilize Bucky Irving as a means to stay out in front of the Cardinals. This week, we have a few games with lofty point totals, so it could be a chalky Week 14 in DFS.
Reminders:
- The figures after players’ names are their current projected ownership percentages. They will change by Sunday morning. We get a lot of information through practice reports on Friday (when I’m writing this), and ownership projection systems will be slow to react. Additionally, they are general ownership projections; they will vary depending on the contest you enter.
- Join Discord — it’s free. I’ll post updates to this article and notify readers about any significant changes to ownership.
Let’s dive into it!
QB 1 – Josh Allen (15%)
For the second week in a row, Josh Allen comes in as QB1 for the slate. Unlike last week, when I was worried that the Steelers’ defense would show up, I am much more bullish on Allen reaching his ceiling against this Bengals defense. Additionally, Allen is back home in Upstate New York, where he has had much better fantasy performances this season. In Buffalo, Allen boasts a 115.9 QB rating, a completion rate of 73.8% and 21 total TDs (13 passing, eight rushing). He’s also averaging three more yards per carry at home.
This game has the highest point total on the slate, so many DFS enthusiasts will be eyeing it. Cincinnati is giving up 257 passing yards per game this season, with their last three games being very close to that number at 247. Pairing Allen with any of his pass catchers can be a challenging endeavor, as Buffalo likes to spread the ball around its pass-catching group and wants to run the ball so much that it also uses Allen for rushing TDs. As such, I will only pair Allen with one pass catcher, hopefully Dalton Kincaid (?) if he returns for Week 14. The other WRs are busy fighting for snaps and targets, so nothing is concentrated. An interesting way to get different might be to stack James Cook (20 – 23%) with Alle, hoping they hook up for a passing TD, D, and then collect all the rushing TDs as well.
QB 2 – Trevor Lawrence (7 – 9%)
If we go back to 2017 and check the results, we find that the Jacksonville Jaguars are 10 – 5 against the Indianapolis Colts. Several Colts teams have gotten into the habit of making a late-season stop in Duval County, often as a favorite, and losing. Is that going to happen again? I don’t know, but I do know that those games have often been high scoring and/or competitive. This is good news for Trevor Lawrence and his offense, which is looking pretty good as of late. Both of these defenses are vulnerable via the pass, especially the Colts, with Sauce Gardner now out. I do like this environment as a potential shootout, as the Colts’ offense is good enough to put up points here. Lawrence has flashed a little rushing upside this season. He’s averaged 25 rushing yards per game over his last eight games and has five rushing scores to go along with that. If he finds himself in a trailing game script, then I like his situation even more.
Jakobi Meyers (11%) has acclimated to this offense fairly quickly and led the team in snaps and targets in week 13. Brian Thomas Jr. (6%) returned last week to see 75% of snaps but only three targets, which makes him hard to trust here, but may be worth a shot if building multiple lineups. I also like Brenton Strange (10%), who is getting back into the swing of things after missing a bit of time.
If running it back with someone on the other side, Jonathan Taylor (12%) is an obvious choice, but defenses may be able to key in on him, with Daniel Jones (2%) less likely to be a running threat. I like Michael Pittman (4 – 6%) to bounce back in this one after a subpar performance in week 13. Alec Pierce (7 – 9%) is proving to be a more vital piece in this offense as he leads the WR room in snap share over the last four games. Tyler Warren (13%) is consistently in play as well, since he has the 2nd-most targets on the team, and the Jaguars are the 2nd-worst team against the TE position.
QB 3 – Joe Burrow (4%)
On the other side of Josh Allen and the Bills, we have Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The Cincy QB looked a little rusty in his matchup with Baltimore last week, but did improve as the game went on. This week faces a Bills defense that is more susceptible to rushing attacks than passing ones. However, Joe Burrow has good career stats against Buffalo, and I anticipate that he will be trailing in this game and will have to air it out, specifically in the second half. The Bills could also be without Joey Bosa, which should alleviate the pass rust Burrow will face.
The obvious pairing with Burrow is Ja’Marr Chase (25%), though Tee Higgins (5%) will be back for this matchup. For those who are interested in chasing Mitchell Tinsley’s (1%) 9 targets from last week, he is unlikely to be as involved with Higgins returning. Andrei Iosivas (1 – 2%) should also see fewer targets with Cincy’s top duo on the field, and will thus be TD dependent.
Chase Brown (8%) is of interest to me as the Bills have been gashed on the ground at various times this season. The RB also was the beneficiary of 7 targets with Burrow back on the field. However, Samaje Perine (1 – 2%) did eat into some of the RB work as he was on the field for 40% of snaps, had two targets, and had 14 carries. He didn’t do all that much with these opportunities, but his involvement could cap Brown’s ceiling.
QB 4 – Matthew Stafford (3 – 5%)
Stafford’s statistics against DC Jonathan Gannon are not all that great. Stafford has gone up against Gannon’s defenses 4 times and has only one game with multiple TDs. However, considering the upset from last week against Carolina, I would expect Stafford and company to come out with a purpose in this one. Additionally, Arizona has been blitzing more frequently and using two-high safeties. Stafford crushes against both of those schemes.
Puka Nacua (23 – 25%) is Stafford’s guy when blitzed. Stafford throws to his first read at a 3/4 rate when blitzed, and Nacua is that first read nearly 35% of the time. Davante Adams (7%), who catches like 2 TDs every week, it seems, is Stafford’s go-to guy against two high safeties. Both WRs may have a good day, but getting them both into your DFS lineups could be a challenge. In my Stafford stacks, I will try, but I will also construct lineups where only one is optimal.
If looking for a run back, Trey McBride (8 – 10%) is the best TE in football right now. The matchup almost doesn’t matter with Jacoby Brissett (5%) already being prone to throwing to his TEs and likely facing a trailing game script. Michael Wilson (17%) continued to lead the WR group in snaps, but he was tied with Marvin Harrison in targets. It does look like Harrison might not play, so Greg Dortch (4%) could be in the fold again if he sits. I’m not going overboard with Cardinal run backs, but Brissett and company will likely need to find some success to keep Stafford and company throwing.
One-Offs
- De’Von Achane (20 – 25%) has been getting a boatload of opportunities with the Dolphins lately, as much of the offense flows through him. I am concerned that some of his red zone opportunities will disappear with Waller back in the lineup, but a ceiling performance is in the cards against a Jets defense that is top 5 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position.
- Derrick Henry (7 – 10%) gets a matchup with a Steelers defense that has surrendered an average of 151 rushing yards per game over their last 3. Now, that is in large part due to the 249 rushing yards that the Bills just put up against them, but Pittsburgh could be without DT Derrick Harmon and LB Patrick Queen in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the struggling Ravens offense rely on Henry in what is likely a must-win game between these division leaders.
- Bucky Irving (10%) surprised many in week 13 by returning and immediately getting a featured role. While he played only 52% of snaps, he received 19 total opportunities, putting up 81 total yards and a TD (he also had another TD called back due to a penalty). I would expect his snaps and opportunities to increase in this game against New Orleans, who can be run on.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (13%) had a huge dud last week against the Vikings. He wasn’t needed in that matchup as the Seattle defense and run game had it all well in hand. While that could be the case here against the Falcons, JSN is in striking distance of 2,000 yards receiving on the season. He’ll need some big yardage games to get there, and that could start here in Week 14 against an Atlanta team that is giving up a good amount of production to outside WRs.
- Justin Jefferson (8 – 10%) has been a considerable disappointment here in 2025. However, he gets a better QB throwing him the ball and a terrible passing defense in his home building this week. It’s now or never for JJ in 2025.
- Christian Watson (14%) is my general pick out of the Green Bay WR room to likely have a big day on an almost week-to-week basis for right now. Watson is definitely injury-prone, but when he is on the field, he is a deep threat. Jordan Love (4%) has shown the willingness to go that route on multiple occasions. I’m not going to chase the Dontavion Wicks (4%) performance from last week, and I am not in the business of trusting Jayden Reed (1%), especially when he is coming back from IR.
- Jordan Addison (5%) is someone I’ll play if I can’t get to Jefferson. Addison has seen an equal snap share as Justin Jefferson, and at times, he has out-targeted the stud WR. Someone in the Vikings’ passing attack should feast against this Commanders defense.
- Brock Bowers (6 – 7%) takes on a Broncos defense that isn’t all that great against the TE position. If you’ve been following my work, you know I’ve been skeptical of both Geno Smith (1%) and HC Pete Carroll regarding their targeting of TEs. But the simple point is that Bowers is their best receiver, and he demands targets if the Raiders want to be competitive or win games.
- Mark Andrews (7%) just signed a brand new deal worth a lot of bling, close to $40 million, with 26 of it guaranteed. How better to justify that withan th a couple of TD catches against one of the worst teams at the TE position in Pittsburgh?
- Darren Waller (3%) didn’t find the end zone last week because he forgot where the out-of-bounds line was, but he will be featured in the Dolphins’ red zone attack. If you play him, you will need at least one TD.