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What to Expect: IU basketball travels to Kentucky – Inside the Hall

What to Expect: IU basketball travels to Kentucky – Inside the Hall

IU basketball is back on the road on Saturday evening as the Hoosiers take on Kentucky at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats are 6-4.

Saturday’s game will tip at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN:

For the first time since the 2011-12 season, Indiana and Kentucky will play in the regular season. Saturday’s matchup is the first of a four-game series that includes two games in Lexington, one in Indianapolis and one in Bloomington.

The Wildcats are led by second-year head coach Mark Pope, who won 24 games last season and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. Indiana trails the all-time series, 32-25, but won the last meeting 73-67 in the 2016 NCAA tournament in Des Moines, Iowa.

MEET THE WILDCATS

Much has been written about the exorbitant cost of Kentucky’s 2025-26 roster, reportedly in the range of $22 million, but roster building in the transfer portal era is not as simple as spending a lot of money.

While the Wildcats do have some returnees, injuries to several key players and a lack of cohesion through 10 games have led to some disappointing losses and a fall from No. 9 in the Associated Press top 25 poll to unranked.

Few have sympathy for Kentucky basketball’s slow start, particularly with its strong resources, and that includes the fanbase that has been outspoken in its early-season criticism of this group’s performance.

After a 94-59 loss to Gonzaga on Dec. 5 in Nashville where it was booed throughout the game, Kentucky had a get-right win, 103-67, against North Carolina Central on Tuesday at home.

The Wildcats are led by senior guard Otega Oweh – the SEC preseason player of the year – now in his second season with the program after transferring from Oklahoma. The 6-foot-4 Oweh averages a team-high 14.4 points along with 4.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.6 steals in 25.8 minutes per game. He’s capable of putting a lot of pressure on the defense by getting to the rim. Last season, he attempted 192 free throws in 36 games. Through 10 games, he’s been to the line 37 times and is shooting 56.3 percent on 2s.

Florida transfer guard Denzel Aberdeen, a former teammate of IU big man Sam Alexis and a key reserve for the Gators last season, is second on the team in scoring at 12.4 points per game. He is a career 33.5 percent 3-point shooter. The 6-foot-5 senior has started nine of the team’s 10 games and also averages 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.2 steals in 26 minutes per game.

The Wildcats went with a four-guard set in their win Tuesday with sophomores Collin Chandler and Trent Noah joining Oweh and Aberdeen.

The 6-foot-5 Chandler is 23-for-54 on 3s, good for 42.6 percent, through 10 games and his 11.2 points per game are fourth on the roster. Chandler has scored in double figures eight times.

Noah, a 6-foot-5 sophomore from Harlan, Kentucky, is also a capable 3-point shooter and hit three of his six attempts from distance in Tuesday’s win to finish in double figures for just the second time this season. Noah is 12-for-26 on 3-pointers this season.

The Wildcats are hopeful that Pittsburgh transfer Jaland Lowe, the projected starter at point guard, will be able to provide more as the season goes along. The 6-foot-3 Lowe, a junior, has been battling a shoulder injury all season – he was injured in the team’s blue-white scrimmage – and has only played in four games. He’s just 2-for-11 on 2s and 2-for-9 on 3s with a total of 13 assists this season.

With Arizona State transfer Jayden Quaintance still recovering from surgery to repair a torn ACL and Alabama Mouhamed Dioubate sidelined for the last five games with an ankle injury, Kentucky is leaning on freshman center Malachi Moreno. The 7-footer looks like a building block for Kentucky basketball moving forward. The Georgetown, Kentucky, native is averaging 10.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.3 blocked shots in 22.4 minutes per game. He’s shooting 60.3 percent from the field.

The Wildcats also have former McDonald’s All-American Brandon Garrison, a starter in the first five games of the season, coming off the bench. Garrison only played seven minutes in Tuesday’s win against North Carolina Central and was benched after a turnover and failure to sprint back on defense. The 6-foot-10, 245-pound Garrison is shooting 63.6 percent on 2s and averages 5.7 points and 4.2 rebounds in 16.8 minutes per game.

Three other pieces that you can expect to see in the rotation on Saturday include freshman guard Jasper Johnson, sophomore forward Andrija Jelavic and sophomore wing Kam Williams.

Johnson, a lefty who was a top 30 recruit in the 2025 class, had a career-high 22 points on Tuesday and shot 6-for-10 from the field and 8-for-8 from the free throw line. He’s 13-for-36 on 3s this season.

Jelavic, a native of Zagreb, Croatia, is 20-for-28 on 2s (71.4 percent) but just 6-for-27 on 3s (22.2 percent). The 6-foot-11 freshman averages six points and 4.3 rebounds in 15.5 minutes per game.

The 6-foot-8 Williams, a transfer from Tulane, shot 56-for-141 on 3s last season, good for 39.7 percent. That hasn’t translated to the high-major level so far, as Williams is just 6-for-31 from distance. He’s scored double figures once and started the five games leading up to Tuesday against North Carolina Central but was replaced by Noah in the lineup for that game.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

(All statistics and national rankings updated through Thursday’s games.)

IU-Kentucky tempo-free preview.

Despite losses to Louisville, Michigan State, North Carolina and Gonzaga, Kentucky’s computer rankings remain strong. That is driven by the fact that all six of Kentucky’s wins have been decisive. The Wildcats have won six games against low or mid-major competition by an average of 41.3 points.

Offensively, Kentucky is shooting 60.9 percent on 2s, a top 20 mark nationally. The 3-point shooting has fallen off from a season ago thus far. The Wildcats are shooting just 32.9 percent from 3, which ranks just inside the top 200 nationally.

Kentucky runs an up-tempo offense that only averages 15.1 seconds per possession and doesn’t turn the ball over much. The Wildcats are turning it over on just 14.5 percent of their possessions, ranking 44th nationally. After ranking just outside in free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) last season, Kentucky’s free-throw rate of 29.2 percent ranks outside of the top 300 in the country.

Defensively, the Wildcats aren’t forcing turnovers but are a good defensive rebounding team. Opponents are grabbing just 24.7 percent of their missed shots and have a free-throw rate of only 26.3 percent, which ranks 30th in the country.

In their four losses, Kentucky’s opponents are 39-for-100 on 3s or 39 percent. In their six wins, their opponents are just 37-for-156 on 3s or 23.7 percent. The Hoosiers will likely need a hot shooting night to prevail on Saturday.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection has Kentucky by four, with a 36 percent chance of an IU win. Bart Torvik’s ratings have the Wildcats favored by two with a 43 percent chance of an IU win.

This is a pivotal game for both teams, but the pressure is on the Wildcats at home, particularly with a fanbase frustrated with the team’s performance through 10 games. Kentucky doesn’t have a win against a high-major team this season.

Indiana has a solid 8-2 record, but suffered a bad loss last week to Minnesota at Williams Arena. Indiana has not won in Lexington since 1988.

The Hoosiers will need to be much better with their offensive execution than in their recent losses against Minnesota and Louisville. Both of those teams were able to pressure the Hoosiers on the perimeter and force their shooters into out-of-rhythm looks. Indiana was much sharper with its execution in Tuesday’s blowout win against Penn State but beating an inferior opponent in Bloomington is much different than the challenge on Saturday night in a hostile road environment.

(Photo credit: UK Athletics)

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